Throughline

Prediction market sites allow users to put money on everything from the war in Iran to the winner of the Super Bowl. But where did these markets come from? And what can that history tell us about where they might be going? Today on the show, how betting on popes and presidents long ago planted a seed for a “terrorism market” in the early 2000s, and how those early prediction markets shaped the industry that has taken hold today.

Guests:

Koleman Strumpf, economics professor at Wake Forest University

Paul Rhode, economic historian at the University of Michigan.

Robin Hanson, Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and systems architect for the Policy Analysis Market

Robert Forsythe, Professor of Finance at Wayne State University and co-founder of the Iowa Political Stock Market

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This week, we explore the life of the first woman Secretary of Labor, Frances Perkins, and how in the midst of the Great Depression she helped reshape the nation by fighting for minimum wage, Social Security, and unemployment insurance.

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Drones are swarming battlefields in Ukraine, Iran, and beyond. Drone warfare is cheap, efficient, autonomous — and changing warfare forever. Today on the show, the past, present and future of battle by remote control. This episode originally published in 2021 and has been updated.

GUEST:

James Rodgers, war historian and author of several books about drones, including Drones: What Everyone Needs to Know

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A glimpse into life during the Great Depression from the people that lived it.

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All wars are fought twice: first on the battlefield, the second time in memory," writes Pulitzer Prize-winning author Viet Thanh Nguyen. This week on Throughline, we revisit our 2022 conversation with Nguyen about how the way we remember and selectively forget the ravages of war has the power to reshape our future. 

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