Geopolitical Cousins

• The Illusion of Decoupling

  Global trade isn’t just an economic story - it’s a test of power, pride, and patience. Jacob and Marko dive into the illusion of U.S.-China decoupling, exploring how power, dependency, and ideology are colliding in a world too connected to pull apart. From semiconductor choke points to rare earth retaliation, the United States and China are caught in a feedback loop of control and dependency that neither can fully escape. The cousins challenge the myth of economic sovereignty and ask what it really means to compete when every side still depends on the other to function.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (00:38) - Basketball Banter and Podcast Dynamics(01:31) - Ryan Russillo's Move to Barstool Sports(04:31) - US-China Trade Relations and Rare Earth Elements(13:30) - Bureaucratic Inertia and US Foreign Policy(17:45) - Technological Decoupling and Global Trade(21:04) - Geopolitical Realities and Future Predictions(40:15) - Allies and Economic Dependencies(41:30) - American Public Opinion on Trade and China(48:04) - Generational Differences in Political Activism(50:02) - Global Protests and Political Unrest(01:05:31) - Emergence of New Political Brands(01:12:38) - Cocaine and Global Trade(01:16:53) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

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• The New Cold Peace

  What happens when a superpower’s bluff runs out? Jacob and Marko trace Russia’s unraveling - from collapsing refineries and fading deterrence to the myth of its “paper bear” strength. They ask what real power looks like when fear no longer works, why Europe feels emboldened, and how Ukraine’s strategy is quietly rewriting modern warfare. Beyond the battlefield, the cousins explore the rise of “garrison states,” Gen Z unrest, and whether AI is revolution... or just another container ship.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:54) - Personal Anecdotes and Cultural Observations(02:28) - Geopolitical Analysis: Russia and Ukraine(06:19) - Strategic Insights: Ukraine's Tactical Moves(09:16) - European Union and Ukraine Relations(14:36) - Potential Outcomes and Future Scenarios(18:43) - Economic and Political Implications(32:38) - European Unity and Putin's Miscalculations(34:21) - European Sentiment on Russia(34:55) - Middle East Geopolitical Updates(37:23) - Gen Z Protests Around the World(41:31) - Generational Politics in the US(48:44) - AI's Economic Impact(01:08:02) - Debating the Future of AI and Marketability(01:08:37) - Nostalgia and the Evolution of Computer Games(01:10:03) - The Shift in Consumer Preferences(01:11:52) - AI's Impact on Future Job Markets(01:14:50) - US vs China: Different Approaches to AI(01:15:42) - The Role of Tech Companies in AI Development(01:26:31) - The Overbuild of Data Centers and Energy Needs(01:30:28) - The Myth of AGI and True Innovation(01:37:59) - Concluding Thoughts on AI and Innovation--Referenced in the Show:AI Will Not Make You Rich — https://joincolossus.com/article/ai-will-not-make-you-rich/--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin:

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  1:41:42
• 17 Seconds or Less

  Marko and Jacob dive into the latest twists of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Marko makes the case that Russia’s size—once its biggest advantage—is now a glaring weakness, as Ukraine’s drones expose just how fragile pipelines, refineries, and infrastructure really are. Along the way, they poke fun at NATO’s cautious responses, revisit Poland’s not-so-quiet history, and question whether Russia is more paper kitty than paper tiger. It’s lively, skeptical, and very Papic.--Timestamps:(00:00) - The AI Adoption Decline(00:37) - Geopolitical Tensions: Russia, NATO, and Ukraine(05:06) - The Impact of Drone Warfare(11:59) - Russia's Strategic Vulnerabilities(20:44) - Historical Context and Modern Implications(26:30) - The Future of Russian Aggression(45:37) - Debating Predictions and Hot Takes(46:39) - American Foreign Policy and Trump's Role(50:33) - H-1B Visa Controversy(52:47) - The Impact on US-India Relations(56:19) - The Role of Immigration in American Greatness(01:05:45) - Jimmy Kimmel and Cancel Culture(01:18:05) - Concluding Thoughts on Media and Politics--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

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• Elon and Orwell

  Pokemon cards outperforming Meta, Cornell students skinning bears, and Elon Musk misusing Orwell... Welcome to this Geopolitical Cousins episode 25. Jacob and Marko continue their conversation about the assassination of Charlie Kirk, arguing that his killing was likely driven less by ideology and more simply a symptom of disaffected young men radicalized by social media and stripped of purpose. Drawing on Dostoevsky’s Raskolnikov and Richard Reeves’ research on boys, they trace how elite overproduction and information overload fuel unrest. Unlike Europe, America lacks historical “inoculation” against extremism. The discussion closed with Bolsonaro’s legal troubles in Brazil and Asia’s simmering political tensions.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:07) - Banter(03:00) - Trivia(09:58) - The Charlie Kirk Assassination Discussion(12:13) - The Crisis of Manliness and Societal Impacts(21:00) -Historical Context and Modern Parallels(33:49) - Global Perspectives and Extremism(46:11) - Political Turmoil in Asia(46:47) - Charlie Kirk and Social Media Impact(48:10) - Historical Reflections on Evil(52:10) - Personal Anecdotes on Racism and Segregation(53:35) - US Education Crisis and Ignorance(57:33) - Civil Wars and State Capacity(01:04:05) - Brazil's Political Drama: Bolsonaro's Trial(01:17:27) - Geopolitical Tensions: Venezuela and Beyond(01:21:10) - China's Moves in the South China Sea(01:21:54) - Russia's Probing Tactics in Europe(01:30:53) - Concluding Thoughts and EuroBasket Update--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter:

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  1:34:20
• Political Violence And Theater

  Jacob and Marko open up today's emergency episode with a sobering reflection on the assassination of Charlie Kirk, part of a disturbing rise in U.S. political violence. They urge caution against rushing to assign motives before facts emerge, warning that both left and right are exploiting the tragedy for division. From there, the episode dives into another series of crises from Russian drones in Poland to Israeli strikes in Qatar, underscoring how geopolitics often blurs lines between theater and real escalation. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (01:23) - Assassination of Charlie Kirk(02:22) - Political Violence in the US(07:32) - Social Media's Role in Political Discourse(17:29) - Poland and Russia Tensions(33:13) - Israel's Attack on Qatar(38:47) - Nation Building and Israeli Politics(39:47) - Israel's Shift from Plausible Deniability(40:20) - Ethnic Cleansing in Gaza(40:52) - The Hubris of Israeli Strategy(44:07) - The Impact on Israel's Brand(50:16) - Nepal's Gen Z Uprising(52:14) - Indonesia and South Asian Instability(59:04) - Argentina's Economic Challenges(01:09:07) - Trump's Tariffs and Legal Battles(01:17:17) - Conclusion and Future Topics--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

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