Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

We connect the sudden jump in US mortgage rates to the bond market and lay out why the Fed can look tough while inflation pressures keep building underneath. We also explain how a change to the PCE inflation calculation and quiet Treasury liquidity moves can create a growing gap between official numbers and real-life bills. 

• how the 10-year Treasury yield drives 30-year mortgage rates 
• why investors, not the Fed, set the price of borrowing for homes 
• Bill Ackman’s argument that higher rates can raise prices through embedded financing costs 
• how AI spending and supply shortages can keep demand hot despite rate hikes 
• why buy and hold index fund logic gets harder when rates and prices rise together 
• what “follow the money” means and how institutions adjust positioning 
• how PCE methodology changes can lower reported inflation without lowering prices 
• why long-run inflation acts like a quiet transfer from savers to big borrowers 
• what the Treasury General Account signals about hidden liquidity support 

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👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

We connect a 44-year low in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to a larger setup that looks like manufactured calm today and a harsher inflation bill later. We also trace how debt buybacks, private-market megavaluations, and stock market concentration can quietly shift risk onto ordinary savers while “skilled money” positions for the next phase. 
• strategic petroleum reserve drawdowns as a tool to suppress oil and diesel prices 
• why “refilling with Venezuelan oil” doesn’t solve the near-term problem 
• the inflation trap logic: push rates down while inflation stays higher 
• Treasury buybacks explained as debt support that functions like money printing 
• why private AI valuations matter to public-market investors 
• index fund concentration risk when a few names dominate 
• how to “follow the money” using filings and insider behavior 
• examples of positioning toward cash-flow businesses and away from crowded trades 
• why central bank gold buying matters for currency risk and purchasing power 
You can grab yourself a free ticket for that at inflationtrap.com. Go and grab a seat while you're thinking about it, because there'll be no replay. If you're doing that, write Thrive in the comments down below. 

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We lay out why a Fed rate hike during an oil shock can squeeze the economy without fixing the real cause of inflation. We connect the dots between supply-side inflation, government debt refinancing, and why central banks are quietly buying gold while cash holders fall into an inflation trap. 

• why oil-driven inflation behaves differently than demand-driven inflation 
• how higher diesel and fertilizer costs flow into food prices and the wider economy 
• what stagflation means and why the 1970s still matters 
• why rate hikes can punish borrowers while prices stay high 
• what the long-term charts say about the dollar, home prices, and gold 
• how refinancing trillions in Treasuries constrains how “tough” the Fed can be 
• why we call the quarter-point hike theater when debt costs are rising 
• what happens if bond buyers disappear and the Fed has to step in 
• why central banks accumulating gold is a signal worth watching 
• how the cash trap quietly erodes savings and retirement plans 
• why we avoid panic selling and focus on knowing what you actually own 

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A sulfuric acid export ban sounds boring until we trace how it can choke fertilizer supply, reduce food output and collide with $100 plus oil to drive a sharp inflation shock. We connect that real-world squeeze to dollar weaponization, hedge fund leverage in Treasuries and why professional money is positioning around gold and volatility. 
• Russia and China export cuts as a fertilizer supply trigger 
• Why sulfur and the Strait of Hormuz matter beyond oil 
• The double whammy of energy inflation plus food inflation 
• How governments respond when food prices spark unrest 
• Dollar weaponization and why countries move toward gold 
• Hedge funds’ $2.2 trillion Treasury exposure and leverage risk 
• How forced bond selling can push up rates and hit the economy 
• Why cash loses purchasing power in long inflation cycles 
• Practical framing for building a personal 90 day plan 

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👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks