The ECB Podcast

• Ask the ECB Forum: defence, tariffs and AI – insights from top experts

  Can an increase in defence spending affect investments in green energy and digital infrastructure? What do US tariff threats mean for the ECB? How does the ECB support smaller countries in the Eurosystem? And is AI an opportunity or a risk for the financial future? In the last episode of our Sintra series, our host Stefania Secola takes us on a walk around the ECB Forum and gets top experts to answer your questions. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 9 July 2025 and recorded during the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra between 30 June and 2 July 2025. In this episode: 02:05 Defence spending Can an increase in defence spending affect investments in green energy and digital infrastructure? 08:08 Tariffs How do US tariff threats affect the economy? What do they mean for the ECB? And what are the opportunities for Europe? 14:14 Smaller vs. bigger economies in the Eurosystem Does the ECB prioritise bigger economies over smaller ones? Do smaller countries, such as Slovenia, benefit from the ECB’s monetary policy? 18:55 Artificial intelligence Is AI an opportunity or a risk for the financial future? Further readings: Gensler, G., Johnson, S., Panizza, U. and Weder di Mauro, B.: The Economic Consequences of The Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment https://cepr.org/publications/books-and-reports/economic-consequences-second-trump-administration-preliminary The ECB Podcast: AI: economic game changer or job taker? https://soundcloud.com/europeancentralbank/ai-economic-game-changer-or-job-taker ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/

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• Challenges and opportunities: what lies ahead for the world economy?

  Tariffs and geopolitical conflicts have created uncertainty around the world. But how does the new trade environment affect inflation and the economy? How can central banks adapt? And what is the potential impact on the dominance of the US dollar ? In the third episode of our special Sintra series of the ECB Podcast, our host Paul Gordon talks to London School of Economics Professor Silvana Tenreyro. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 4 July 2025 and recorded on 1 July 2025. In this episode: 01:30 How is the world economy doing? What developments are having an impact on our economy today? And what uncertainties are arising from tariffs, trade fragmentation and armed conflicts in different parts of the world? 03:30 Tariffs, trade fragmentation and the economy How can trade tariffs and fragmentation affect economic growth and inflation in the euro area and beyond? 06:25 How are prices changing? How are prices changing in different countries? Will tariffs cause prices in the United States to rise, and those in Asia and Europe to fall? And why? 07:55 Lessons for central banks Given the extremely high level of uncertainty, what lessons from past shocks can central banks apply in the future? Why do we need clearly defined frameworks? And what role do governments play? 09:55 How can governments prepare for potential shocks? Investing in technologies that are difficult to substitute, diversifying energy sources and creating buffers for critical inputs – why it’s crucial that governments have a strategy to withstand various shocks. 12:05 What is a dominant currency? When is a currency considered internationally “dominant”? And what dominant currencies have there been in the past? 13:40 Dollar dominance and monetary policy transmission Does dollar dominance in international trade transactions reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy? 17:30 The future of dollar dominance How will the dominance of the US dollar develop in the future? Is its role as a primary reserve currency at risk due to the Trump Administration’s policies? 19:10 What keeps you up at night? What happens to our economy if there is a sudden shortage of a certain input? What impact will AI have if it remains largely unregulated? And what do stablecoins and digital currencies mean for our economy? 21:00 Our guest’s hot tip Silvana shares her hot tip with our listeners. Further readings: Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro: Dollar dominance and the transmission of monetary policy https://personal.lse.ac.uk/tenreyro/dominant_currency.pdf Sintra Series episode 1/4: Price stability in times of change https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod250702_episode110.en.html Sintra Series episode 2/4: Adapting to change: Ensuring price stability in a new geopolitical era https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod250625_episode109.en.html Silvana’s hot tip I’m still here/Ainda estou aqui ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/

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• Price Stability in Times of Change

  President Christine Lagarde sat down with central bank heads from the United States, hte United Kindgdom, South Korea, and Japan at this year's ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. They discuss the steps they've taken to fight inflation and explioe the challenges and opportunities ahead. Recorded on 1 July 2025 and published on 2 July 2025 Further reading: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20250630_ecb_forum_on_central_banking.en.html European Central Bank: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html European Central Bank Supervision: https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

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• Adapting to change: Ensuring price stability in a new geopolitical era

  How does geopolitical uncertainty affect inflation? How do we keep monetary policy fit for purpose in a rapidly changing world? And what are the main topics at this year’s ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal? In the first episode of our special Sintra series for The ECB Podcast, our host Paul Gordon discusses all these questions and more with Chief Economist and Executive Board member, Philip R. Lane. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 25 June 2025 and recorded on 16 June 2025. In this episode: 01:28 The ECB Governing Council lowered key interest rates to 2%. What was the motivation behind the decision? 04:30 How do we ensure that risks and uncertainties are integrated into the monetary policy decision-making process? What is our baseline? What factors need to be taken into account? 06:44 Alternative scenarios in the latest projections Why do we communicate our “what if” scenarios? 08:11 Meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach Why do we follow this approach? 09:50 Strategy review How can we make sure our strategy is up to date? 12:02 High-level uncertainty How do we factor heightened uncertainty in our strategy? 13:50 ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal What is the ECB Forum and what’s behind it? What’s the goal of the Forum? What’s Philip R. Lane looking forward to? 16:53 Our guest’s hot tip Philip R. Lane shares his hot tip. Programme of ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20250630_ecb_forum_on_central_banking.en.html Ken Rogoff "Our dollar, your problem" https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300275315/our-dollar-your-problem/ ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/ European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu ECB Banking Supervision https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

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• President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 5 June 2025

  Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy, determining what’s needed to return inflation to our 2% goal in a timely manner. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect pri¬ces to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 5 June 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2025/html/mopo_statement_explained_june.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 5 June 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250605~f00a36ef2b.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 5 June 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.mp250605~3b5f67d007.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 5 June 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds250605~dc79b630e3.en.pdf?1ae87c3b33214537469188411c6fec52 Macroeconomic projections, 5 June 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202506_eurosystemstaff~16a68fbaf4.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html Published and recorded during our press conference on 5 June 2025 #MonetaryPolicy #EuropeanCentralBank #ChristineLagarde #Finance #FinancialConditions #Inflation #EconomicActivity #EconomicOutlook #PressConference #Banking #CentralBanking #Podcast #Economics #EU #Europe #ECB

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