UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Political polarization is testing Europe’s established parties and confronting markets with the prospect of larger policy shifts. Germany’s regional elections have brought the growing influence of parties outside the traditional mainstream into focus, while France’s presidential election could shape the pace of future European integration. Why might fiscal spending fail to ease voter discontent, and how should investors respond to a less predictable political landscape? In the latest episode of Across the Pond, hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Ulander are joined by UBS Global Chief Economist Paul Donovan to discuss the implications for European integration, fiscal policy, global trade, and portfolio diversification.

This week, Shane talks about recent developments surrounding Missouri’s redistricting efforts, recaps President Trump’s keynote address at GOP midterm convention, and reflects on the 25th anniversary of the 9-11 attacks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

It is a sad comment on the quality of communication by the US central bank that a single US consumer price inflation number can have so much sway over policy expectations. Single data points should not be relied on to this extent. If today’s data does not produce a US rate hike in September, disinflationary forces may keep rates on hold this year. If rates are raised, a second rate hike would probably follow.

The ECB is almost certain to repeat its earlier policy rate error and unnecessarily raise interest rates. There is unlikely to be any inflation or economic growth impact, but a further rate increase erodes borrowers’ ability to manage future economic crises. This should be the last error, unless oil prices get so high the ECB feels it needs to create a recession in the non-oil economy to create non-oil deflation.

Sunny Mehra, Consumer Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by to provide a health check on the US consumer, including a look a recent spending trends and overall sentiment. Sunny reflects on the 2026 back to school shopping season, and previews how retailers are preparing for the upcoming holidays. Plus, a look at positioning preferences across the US Consumer Discretionary and Staples sectors. Host: Daniel Cassidy