UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Tensions in the Gulf continue, and crude oil futures remain over USD 90 per barrel. This has reignited some inflation concerns. The fact that consumers have shifted spending patterns in response to higher oil prices is not properly reflected in inflation calculations—and while the impact will not be dramatic, it does mean that the damage to real incomes is slightly less than inflation data suggests.

This month’s episode focuses on investing through a social lens, bringing together experts from UBS Global Wealth Management and Community Capital Management. Community Capital Management specializes in fixed income investments that aim to advance positive societal outcomes and have been committed to this work since its founding in 1998. Featured are Melissa Amler and Tiffany Agard from the Sustainable & Impact Investing team at UBS Global Wealth Management, along with David Sand, Co-Chief Impact Strategist at Community Capital Management.

The Brent benchmark oil future is back above USD 90 per barrel. The US-Iran truce covered by the “memorandum of understanding” expired yesterday and US President Trump said there is no intention to extend it. Trump also threatened to bomb Oman (again). From an investor perspective, none of this changes the current situation—Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed—but markets’ optimism bias is undermined by the near-term outlook.

We are in the home stretch of peak summer vacation season and that has translated to a calm in the markets. Economic data, however, continues to roll in with potential implications for the course of Fed monetary policy. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, discusses these implications, along with current investor sentiment and portfolio positioning. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japan’s preliminary second-quarter GDP data was weaker than expected—though the headline changes were exaggerated by the fiction of annualization. Consumer spending weighed on the growth rate. While international investors have been eager to see the Bank of Japan as being too late with rate increases, the data seems to support a more gradual approach.