UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Kurt and Shane rejoin for a timely roundup of DC-related topics, including an inventory of legislative focuses of Congress (including a look at what may be achieved ahead of the summer recess), potential outcome scenarios of the US midterm elections in November (and what the markets are focusing on). Plus, reflections America 250 celebrations and American innovations of the course of its 250-year history. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, & Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US.

US attacks on Iran follow from Iranian attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping. It is not a great look for the memorandum of misunderstanding. Oil futures prices rose—to levels not seen for two weeks. A stronger reaction has been avoided, perhaps because of how investors view US President Trump’s political position. US retail gasoline prices remain well above pre-war levels, and it is the pre-war level that consumers think of as a “fair” price.

Fresh off summer holiday travels across Nordic countries, Burkhard rejoins the podcast to reflect on his experiences, and weighs in on the condition of the region’s economies and markets. Plus, as the World Cup tournament rolls on, Burkhard shares thoughts on what athletes can teach leaders and investors.

Jeff and Barry join to provide reflections and takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s 2026 annual stress test results for US banks and financial institutions (through an equity and credit lens). Plus, a preview of the upcoming corporate earnings season for US financials. Featured are Jeff Harwood, Financials Equity Strategist Americas, and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Politics can influence which economic data is considered important. Today’s US trade data is not economically significant, but in the trade tariff era it has assumed political importance. US exports should benefit from oil trade, but US consumers’ thirst for imports remains unquenched. This may feed into the tariff debate.