UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Markets responded positively to the US midterm election results. Expectations of policy gridlock do not solve the unsustainable US fiscal position but reduce politicians’ ability to inflict further fiscal damage. US Vice President Vance blamed Republican losses on the Gulf war. That, amplified by the optimism bias, shifted expectations of a US retreat and allowed oil prices to fall.

In the wake of Election Day, Kurt and Shane join to assess the outcomes of Congressional and Gubernatorial races across the US and the implications of them to the domestic and foreign policy landscape, the macroeconomic environment, the road ahead for AI-buildout, and financial markets. Plus, a review of CIO’s positioning recommendations and messaging as we look ahead to 2027. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor from Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US Democrats have decisively won the midterm elections. State results will matter to investors because data center decisions often take place at a state level and some Democrat governors are publicly opposed. At the very least, data center builders are likely to have to offer more incentives to local communities.

Amir Vardi, Portfolio Manager and Head of Structured Credit along with Eileen Liu, Head of US Client Portfolio Management from the UBS Asset Management Credit Investments Group, discuss positioning considerations within the broader credit landscape.

Markets' optimism bias has been revived, with news that the Iranian government has been granted powers to negotiate with the US. The US midterms are a complication; but on the assumption that some in the administration might attempt a post-2028 political career, a US attempt to tackle the affordability crisis seems warranted.