UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Doug Baker is a Portfolio Manager for Nuveen’s global fixed income team. Doug joins Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for a comprehensive discussion on the preferred securities market. They cover a performance update and outlook, risk considerations, positioning views, and more.

US Michigan consumer sentiment data is a weak economic signal. It does have political punch, via the inflation expectations measure. Consumers focus on the price of frequent purchases (food and fuel), and tend to fixate on the price level. Most consumers will have a “fair” price in mind as a reference, and for gasoline prices that is probably around USD 2.50 per US gallon. Gasoline remains well above that level—off its highs, but having risen recently.

US President Trump asserted that talks with Iran are ongoing. Iran asserted that talks with the US are not happening. Markets tend to react if Trump has the authority to back statements—threatening military strikes is partially priced in, raising oil prices; retreating from military strikes lowers the oil price. But markets are less inclined to respond to Trump’s other statements without independent confirmation—hence today’s lack of reaction.

A wide-ranging conversation on the landscape for broader fixed income investing and credit markets, including performance drivers, risk considerations, and what’s important for investors to focus on. Featured are Matt Brill, Head of North America Investment Grade Credit and Senior Portfolio Manager at Invesco, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office.

Oil prices moved to the lows of last Tuesday after a flurry of activity over the weekend. US President Trump called off military strikes against Iran—markets had not priced in military strikes anyway. An oil tanker then appeared to have been attacked near Oman. Trump then said talks with Iran would resume. Markets netted out these events and the optimism bias returned.