UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The US inflation print underscored some established trends. While consumer price inflation has a large fantasy component to it, it seems fairly clear that real incomes have stagnated since January 2025. That means that increases in spending depend on people getting side-hustle employment, being willing to cut savings rates, or being prepared to use their stock of savings. Today’s retail sales data is another signal of how willing consumers are to utilize savings.

Steve joins Jason for a wide-ranging conversation which spans the US macroeconomic environment, equity market performance, the AI capex cycle, Fed monetary policy, and market risk considerations. Plus, an exchange of views on portfolio positioning. Steve Chiavarone is Chief Investment Officer for Global Equities at Federated Hermes, and is a member of the UBS Research Advisory Board. Jason Draho is Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s September inflation data was not especially exciting. Food prices kept the consumer price inflation figures moderate (food is nearly 30% of China’s consumer price basket). China is not a noted food exporter, so this has little global bearing. China’s consumers are not responding to low inflation with much enthusiasm.

This edition of UBS Election Watch looks beyond Washington precisely because that is usually where most of the attention is focused during midterm elections. Often overlooked is the impact of US elections on other countries and the impact of state and local elections on US policy. Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors with Governmental Affairs US, discuss the scope of impact, along with the latest outcome scenarios. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Chip manufacturers have been experiencing equity price volatility after Broadcom’s chief executive drew “casino” parallels. (US Treasury Secretary “House” Bessent has already demonstrated the danger of making that analogy). The global economic impact of this noise is not that significant—although it may matter for the South Korean and Taiwanese economies.