UBS On-Air: Market Moves

US President Trump had declared the Strait of Hormuz open for free. Now Trump has declared it open for a 20% fee. Shipping data suggests there was less-than-universal belief in free safe passage through Hormuz on Monday. It is unlikely ships will go full steam ahead to take the same risks while paying a high tax. A 20% fee would be about 15 times the mooted Iranian charge, and (as a proportionate tax) would exaggerate future oil price moves.

Jason rejoins to weigh in on recent market activity and drivers, spanning geopolitics, to the Fed, to macro data. Plus, thoughts on this week’s key inflation data, Congressional testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the beginning of the Q2 corporate earnings season, and more. We end with guidance around portfolio positioning in consideration of all these factors. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Jason and Jordan discuss how markets continue to look past geopolitical tensions, with investors viewing Iran-related volatility as manageable and unlikely to derail the broader outlook. They also discuss earnings season, where strong expected profit growth could validate elevated stock prices.

The US declared the Strait of Hormuz open. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Investors have responded with a muted reaction. Oil prices are up, but not in an economically meaningful way. Shipping traffic volumes seem to give more credibility to the Iranian version, but investors’ optimism bias remains. There is an assumption that the political pain of gasoline prices in the US (which have risen again recently) will justify expectations that the current situation will be resolved.

This episode explores what drives the variation in IPO performance. Drawing on 45 years of post-IPO data, it examines what separates the small group of major wealth-creating IPOs from the average new listing, which often disappoints. It highlights five signals that have historically helped identify stronger performers and considers how these characteristics can help investors assess where long-term value is most likely to emerge.