UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The announcement that the US Treasury would “at least double” purchases of long-term US government bonds sparked a rally; 10-year yields fell to levels not seen for a whole week. Higher yields impact the US affordability crisis and debt service costs, making them a political focus. This policy is to counter the (presumably unintended) consequences for bond markets of other policies like the Gulf war and tariffs.

Tensions in the Gulf continue, and crude oil futures remain over USD 90 per barrel. This has reignited some inflation concerns. The fact that consumers have shifted spending patterns in response to higher oil prices is not properly reflected in inflation calculations—and while the impact will not be dramatic, it does mean that the damage to real incomes is slightly less than inflation data suggests.

This month’s episode focuses on investing through a social lens, bringing together experts from UBS Global Wealth Management and Community Capital Management. Community Capital Management specializes in fixed income investments that aim to advance positive societal outcomes and have been committed to this work since its founding in 1998. Featured are Melissa Amler and Tiffany Agard from the Sustainable & Impact Investing team at UBS Global Wealth Management, along with David Sand, Co-Chief Impact Strategist at Community Capital Management.

The Brent benchmark oil future is back above USD 90 per barrel. The US-Iran truce covered by the “memorandum of understanding” expired yesterday and US President Trump said there is no intention to extend it. Trump also threatened to bomb Oman (again). From an investor perspective, none of this changes the current situation—Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed—but markets’ optimism bias is undermined by the near-term outlook.

We are in the home stretch of peak summer vacation season and that has translated to a calm in the markets. Economic data, however, continues to roll in with potential implications for the course of Fed monetary policy. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, discusses these implications, along with current investor sentiment and portfolio positioning. Host: Daniel Cassidy