Clearer Than Truth

Joby Warrick returns to Clearer Than Truth to discuss his new book, The Jackal: The Rise and Fall of Carlos the World's First Super-Terrorist. A two-time Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist for The Washington Post, Warrick has spent decades reporting on terrorism, intelligence failures, and the conflicts shaping the modern Middle East. This time, he goes back to the 1970s to examine the extraordinary career of Carlos the Jackal and what his story can tell us about terrorism today.
Carlos was more than a terrorist for hire. Warrick describes him as a remarkably flexible figure who moved between Palestinian militant organizations, communist governments, intelligence networks, dictators, and eventually anyone willing to employ him. His ideology was often secondary to his ambition, ego, and desire to become a revolutionary celebrity. But his greatest innovation was understanding the power of spectacle. The early terrorist groups around Carlos realized that attacks far from the battlefield could force television cameras, governments, and the public to pay attention to a cause.

Warrick traces how those tactics evolved through the 1970s and eventually influenced later terrorist organizations, including al-Qaeda. The conversation also examines the OPEC siege, Carlos's relationships with state sponsors, the conditions that allow terrorist movements to emerge, and the danger of creating new generations of extremists through war, instability, and political collapse.
The conversation ultimately moves from history to the present. Warrick warns that the combination of weapons of mass destruction and artificial intelligence could create new opportunities for terrorist organizations, while the deterioration of international cooperation may make it harder for states to contain them. Carlos the Jackal may belong to another era, but the methods he helped pioneer, particularly the use of spectacle, proxies, and permissive environments, remain relevant.

00:00 Joby Warrick on Carlos the Jackal
00:53 Why Go Back to Carlos Now?
02:30 What Actually Drove Carlos?
04:47 Carlos the Jackal and Today's Terrorists
06:23 The Rise of Proxy Terrorism
07:43 How Terrorism Became a Global Spectacle
09:16 Why Terrorists Wanted the Cameras
10:03 The International Terrorism Network of the 1970s
11:44 The Shift From Secular to Religious Terrorism
12:11 The OPEC Siege: Carlos's Most Audacious Attack
14:01 Gaddafi and the OPEC Plot
15:35 Why Gaddafi Abandoned Carlos
16:20 Are Terrorists Products of Failed States?
17:33 Why Carlos Became a Legend
18:16 How Dangerous Was Carlos Really?
19:21 The Incredible Mistakes of Carlos the Jackal
20:00 Why States Keep Getting Terrorism Wrong
20:46 The Conditions That Produce Terrorism
22:18 Are We Creating the Next Generation of Terrorists?
24:10 The Threat of AI and Weapons of Mass Destruction
25:47 What Made Carlos Different?
27:10 Why Carlos Needed to See Himself as a Hero
28:20 How Carlos Was Finally Captured
30:54 What al-Qaeda Learned From Carlos
32:59 Did Carlos Ever Regret What He Did?
34:22 The One Thing Carlos Regretted
35:00 How Many People Did Carlos Really Kill?
36:26 Could a Weaker World Order Bring More Terrorism?
37:07 The Decline of International Cooperation
38:22 How Carlos Wants to Be Remembered
39:28 Closing Thoughts
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Richard Overy is one of the world's leading historians of the Second World War and the history of warfare. In this episode of Clearer Than Truth, Overy draws on decades of research to examine one of the most enduring questions in international politics: why do leaders continue to choose war when history repeatedly demonstrates how difficult it is to control?
The conversation begins with the dangers of comparing today's conflicts too directly to the 1930s and 1940s. Overy argues that today's geopolitical environment is fundamentally different, particularly because of nuclear weapons and the existence of the United States and China as major global powers. Yet some historical patterns remain strikingly familiar. Leaders can become convinced that their opponents are weaker than they are, underestimate the costs of conflict, and assume that military force can produce a quick and decisive outcome.
Overy also explores Russia's war in Ukraine, Putin's understanding of Russia's place in the world, the lessons China may be drawing from the conflict, and whether the emerging relationships between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea constitute a genuine strategic coalition. He argues against simplistic historical analogies and warns that viewing every geopolitical rivalry through a disaster scenario can obscure the differences between today's world and the past.
The discussion ultimately returns to Overy's central argument in Why War: technology changes, weapons change, and international systems change—but human beings remain capable of making the same fundamental mistake: believing that war is the solution when it may become the problem.

00:00 Richard Overy on the Dangers of Historical Analogies
00:30 Is Imperialism Really Back?
01:49 Why a Third World War Is Different Today
02:43 The Nuclear Lesson of the Cuban Missile Crisis
03:10 How Regional Wars Become Global Conflicts
04:09 Why World War Isn't Inevitable
04:57 How Much Does Personality Matter in War?
06:16 Putin, Russia & the Psychology of Encirclement
08:30 Why Putin Isn't Stalin
09:22 Russia's Search for Great-Power Status
11:33 Why Leaders Underestimate War
13:32 What Leaders Miss When They Ignore History
15:07 What China Is Learning From Ukraine
16:20 Would China Really Invade Taiwan?
17:10 Could America Push China Toward Conflict?
18:31 The Historical Roots of U.S.-China Rivalry
20:25 Is the West Ready for a Major War?
21:23 Why Modern War Still Looks Like World War II
22:55 Will AI and Cyberwar Change Warfare?
24:08 Is There Really an Authoritarian Axis?
26:19 Why Wartime Coalitions Eventually Break Apart
27:57 The Danger of Leaders Hearing Only What They Want
30:09 What Could Actually Remove Putin?
31:22 Why Do Humans Keep Choosing War?
32:56 The Lesson Today's Leaders Must Remember
33:53 Is There Any Reason for Optimism?
35:08 Richard Overy's Next Book: Hitler's Long Afterlife
36:20 Why Are We Still Fascinated by Hitler?
37:53 Was Hitler More Evil Than Other Dictators?
38:56 Hitler, Ideology & the Holocaust
39:31 Closing Thoughts
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Robert Zoellick, former U.S. Trade Representative, Deputy Secretary of State, and President of the World Bank, joins Clearer Than Truth for a wide-ranging conversation about globalization, trade, American power, and the future of the international order.
Zoellick argues that the backlash against globalization has become intertwined with a broader backlash against elites and established institutions—but warns that the United States risks responding to legitimate concerns in ways that ultimately make the country weaker. He defends the strategic logic behind NAFTA and North American economic integration, arguing that a stronger relationship with Canada and Mexico gives the United States a powerful economic and security advantage in a world increasingly shaped by China. 
The conversation then turns to the weaponization of economic interdependence, protectionism, supply-chain resilience, and the danger of using national security as a justification for restricting trade. Zoellick argues that the United States should build greater resilience and redundancy where necessary—but shouldn't mistake economic isolation for security. He makes a similar case regarding China: compete aggressively in critical areas, but remain focused on staying technologically ahead rather than simply trying to shut the world off.  
Zoellick also examines the health of America's democratic institutions and the international alliances that underpin U.S. power. He warns that undermining confidence in elections, the rule of law, independent institutions, and America's commitments to allies can have consequences far beyond domestic politics. Drawing on his experience during the end of the Cold War and the global financial crisis, he argues that institutions can adapt to profound changes—but they must be strengthened rather than dismantled.  
The episode ultimately becomes a discussion about what comes next. Zoellick believes the international system is being disrupted and that a new generation will have an opportunity to reshape it. His advice is straightforward: avoid unnecessary conflicts, maintain openness to capital and talented people, and preserve the alliances and institutions that allow the United States to lead without having to dominate.

00:00 Robert Zoellick on the Backlash Against Globalization
01:14 Was NAFTA a Mistake?
02:21 Why Mexico Joined NAFTA
03:48 Is America Destroying North America?
04:35 The Strategic Case for North American Integration
06:31 Why America Needs Mexico and Canada
08:10 America's Relationship With Canada
09:59 Globalization Isn't Going Away
10:25 How Economic Interdependence Can Be Weaponized
12:07 The Hidden Cost of Protectionism
13:24 Should America Buy From China?
14:14 Zoellick's Biggest Regret About NAFTA
16:35 Can Trade Rules Keep Up With China?
18:29 The Real Economics of U.S.-Canada Trade
20:25 Why Economic Change Creates Political Backlash
21:09 Can America's Institutions Survive?
22:02 The Threat to American Democracy
23:14 Is Congress Losing Its Power?
24:07 Could America's Alliances Unravel?
25:23 The Lessons of the Cold War
26:42 Was NATO Expansion a Mistake?
27:31 Why NATO Still Matters
28:18 How to Support Ukraine Without NATO Membership
29:02 Can America Adapt the World Order?
30:32 America Has Always Had to Fight for Consensus
31:24 Can America Manage Competition With China?
32:05 Can the U.S. and China Cooperate on AI?
32:26 Don't Make America More Like China
34:31 America's Energy Security Problem
36:20 Why Allies Matter in a Conflict With China
37:10 The Best Strategy Against China
37:54 Can America's Institutions Survive Another Crisis?
39:19 The Lesson of the Global Financial Crisis
40:22 Why America Still Has to Lead
40:47 The Next Generation Will Remake the World
41:12 Zoellick's Advice for the Future
42:09 Closing Thoughts
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Africa is becoming increasingly central to the global order, yet many of its conflicts and political shifts remain overlooked in Western discourse. On this episode of Clearer Than Truth, Nathan speaks with Declan Walsh, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and Chief Africa Correspondent for The New York Times, about the forces reshaping the continent.
Walsh begins with the war in Sudan, a conflict whose scale and human toll rival some of the world's most prominent wars but has received considerably less international attention. He explains why Sudan has become a critical case study in the changing priorities of the United States and the broader Western world. 
The conversation then turns to Africa's extraordinary demographic transformation. While much of the world faces aging and shrinking populations, Africa remains young and rapidly growing. Walsh discusses what this population boom could mean for the continent—and for the rest of the world—as Africa's share of the global population continues to increase. 
Walsh also examines the changing geopolitical competition in Africa. As American engagement has receded, countries including the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, India, and Russia have expanded their influence, pursuing access to resources, investment opportunities, ports, and strategic relationships. 
A major focus is the impact of reduced U.S. aid. Walsh describes what he has witnessed firsthand in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, including the collapse of humanitarian food programs and weakened disease-surveillance networks. 
The discussion also explores Africa's increasingly restless younger generation, the rise of Gen Z protests, the failures of democratic governments to deliver economic opportunity, and the growing appeal of military leaders in parts of West Africa. 
Finally, Walsh identifies some of the continent's most dangerous potential flashpoints—including rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea—and returns to the war in Sudan, warning about the possibility of the conflict spreading across borders and drawing in neighboring powers. Despite these challenges, he closes on a more hopeful note, pointing to Africa's enormous human potential, improving health and education outcomes, and the many people driving progress across the continent.

00:00 Why Africa Matters to the World
02:53 Africa's Population Boom
03:51 America's Changing Approach to Africa
08:18 The New Powers Competing for Africa
12:14 The Real-World Impact of U.S. Aid Cuts
18:42 Africa's Youth & the Threat of Instability
22:18 What Happened to the Arab Spring?
26:49 The Sahel's Growing Crisis
28:23 Ethiopia, Eritrea & the Next Major Flashpoint
32:41 The UAE, Saudi Arabia & the New Geopolitics
36:08 Can Sudan Survive as a Unified Country?
39:32 What Gives Walsh Hope for Africa?
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Two-time Pulitzer Prize finalist and acclaimed presidential historian H.W. Brands joins Clearer Than Truth to explore what history can teach us about American leadership, democracy, and the presidency.
Brands discusses what separates great presidents from mediocre ones, arguing that the most important quality in a leader is good judgment—the ability to make wise decisions in circumstances where there are rarely clear answers. He explains why presidents like George Washington, Theodore Roosevelt, and Franklin Roosevelt succeeded in their own historical moments, and why greatness cannot simply be transplanted from one era to another. 
The conversation also examines Donald Trump and his place in presidential history. Brands compares Trump's dominance of American political life to Franklin Roosevelt's, while asking whether Trump represents a temporary departure from traditional presidential norms or a lasting transformation of the presidency. 
As America is in the midst of its 250th anniversary, Brands reflects on the extraordinary experiment the United States represents: a nation founded around the idea that people can govern themselves. He considers whether American democracy is in danger, why political polarization isn't new, and what today's fractured media environment means for an informed electorate. 
Finally, Brands discusses his biography of George Washington, revealing how Washington's restraint, patience, and ability to gather information before making decisions helped establish the presidency—and why his actions helped shape the power of the executive branch for generations to come.

00:00 What Makes a Great President?
02:57 The Secret to Presidential Greatness
04:19 America's Most Controversial Presidents
07:47 Trump vs. FDR: A Historical Comparison
10:13 The Presidents Who Had a Grand Strategy
13:33 America's 250-Year Experiment
18:01 Is American Democracy Failing?
21:30 America's Partisan Media Has Always Been Divided
24:05 Are We Entering an Age of Post-Literacy?
26:52 How Do You Understand George Washington?
32:37 Washington's Greatest Leadership Trait
36:51 How Washington Expanded Presidential Power
38:57 H.W. Brands' Historical Dinner Party
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