Explaining History

It's been a few days since we last looked at the Persian Gulf crisis, and events are racing forward at such a pace that the only sensible approach is to take a step back and examine the deeper patterns. Behind the headlines about Trump's impulsive decision-making lies a far more consequential story: the moment when a medium-sized power with cheap drones and missiles can hold the world's energy supplies hostage, and the world's sole superpower finds itself with no good options.

I begin with the decision-making in Washington—or rather, the absence of it. Trump, advised by Netanyahu and a handful of Fox News personalities, appears to have launched this war on a whim, assuming he could create "media noise" with no thought to an exit strategy. Military planners who understand the region have been overruled. The system of American governance has decayed to the point where a single egotistical hustler can launch the country into a no-win scenario.

Why no-win? Because Iran has been preparing for this moment for years. Its arsenal of drones, rockets, missiles, mines, and attack boats makes the safe navigation of the Straits of Hormuz virtually impossible. The idea of an international naval flotilla—Trump's proposed solution—is laughable. You would have to maintain it forever, and Iran would interpret any passage not agreeable to them as a hostile act.

I draw a historical parallel: the Dardanelles campaign of 1915. The reason the Allies landed at Gallipoli was because the first attempt to sail through the straits ended in disaster, with British and French ships sunk by shore-based fortifications. The Straits of Hormuz will become exactly that kind of killing zone. It doesn't matter how big your navy is. How many capital ships is America willing to sacrifice for a war Trump started on a whim? How many American lives before the outcry sweeps him from office?

The asymmetry of war is changing. Cheap, mass-produced drones—with motorcycle engines and mobile phones for guidance—can overwhelm anti-missile systems like Patriot and THAAD. Aircraft carriers, the symbol of American power for eighty years, may no longer be the tools for enforcing world order that they once were. China has been signalling this for years with its spectacular drone displays over Beijing: "Imagine what we can do if we attach something to them."

Then there are the geopolitical consequences. Europe will rapidly rapproche with Russia to access cheap hydrocarbons. The Ukraine war will likely be settled in Russia's favour. The push for renewables will gain a new argument: national security, liberation from Trump's whims. Rachel Reeves, the British Chancellor, has already signalled where the wind is blowing, choosing Ursula von der Leyen over Trump when asked.

The special relationship is dying. Suez was a humiliation; this is worse. The British political class is finally waking up to the reality that clinging to America's coat-tails no longer offers protection—only entanglement in unwinnable wars.

And then there's Israel. Nuclear-armed, increasingly isolated, and with an American public whose support has reached an all-time low. If America withdraws from the Gulf, what sense does it make to support Israel as Iran's key enemy? But Israel has always reserved the right to act unilaterally. The situation between Iran and Israel is the one that will continue, long after the current crisis resolves—if it resolves.

I end with two possible futures: a quick resolution where Trump claims an illusory victory and moves on, or a protracted conflict that drags the world into an endless energy crisis. Either way, the lesson of North Korea has been learned: the only protection against American aggression is a nuclear weapon. Iran will never sign another enrichment treaty.

Explaining History helps you understand the 20th Century through critical conversations and expert interviews. We connect the past to the present. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and share.
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In this special episode of the Explaining History Podcast, recorded just days before the 2026 Academy Awards, we're joined by film and media historian Monica Sandler of Ball State University to explore what the Oscars tell us about American culture, power, and the film industry itself.

Monica brings her deep expertise to bear on these questions, tracing the Oscars back to their founding in 1929 as a deliberate attempt to reframe film as an art form—a response to the 1915 Mutual Decision that denied movies First Amendment protections and labeled the industry "plain and simple" commerce. From Will Hays's 1930 speech describing the awards as "an educator of public taste" to the New York Film Critics Circle's 1936 declaration that the Academy was "completely out of touch," the tension between industry insiders and cultural arbiters has been there from the start.

We dive into the economics of awards campaigning—how smaller films depend on Oscar success for profitability, while blockbusters don't need the validation—and the transformation of that process by Harvey Weinstein, who turned awards campaigning into a brutal, multi-million-dollar blood sport. The rules the Academy has had to create in response tell their own story.

The conversation also grapples with the Oscars' troubled relationship with race and representation. Monica discusses the 2016 #OscarsSoWhite movement, which forced the Academy to overhaul its membership—then 90% white, 75% male, with an average age of 65—and the complicated legacy of that change. We talk about the first person of colour ever nominated, Merle Oberon in 1936, who passed as British and whose racial identity was unknown to the public, a poignant illustration of the barriers that existed.

And we look forward: to the rise of streaming, the consolidation of media conglomerates, the threat of AI, and the question of whether the Oscars will remain relevant in a world where young people watch YouTube, not Hollywood. Monica argues that while broadcast ratings may decline, the social media visibility of awards moments—like Michael B. Jordan's recent SAG Awards win—shows that cultural impact is simply being measured differently.

**Topics covered:**
- The 1915 Mutual Decision and Hollywood's quest for artistic legitimacy
- Will Hays and the "education of public taste"
- The economics of awards campaigning
- Harvey Weinstein's transformation of the Oscar industrial complex
- #OscarsSoWhite and the Academy's membership overhaul
- Merle Oberon and the history of passing in Hollywood
- #MeToo and Harvey Weinstein's legacy
- The future of film in the age of streaming and AI
- Media consolidation and the concentration of power

*Monica Sandler is a film and media historian at Ball State University, currently completing her book manuscript, *The Oscar Industry*, based on her doctoral research at UCLA with unprecedented access to the Academy's internal archives. We'll have her back when the book is published.*

Additionally Monica has some excellent further reading recommendations:

Books
Elizabeth Castaldo Lundén, Fashion on the Red Carpet: A History of the Oscars, Fashion and Globalisation (Edinburgh University Press, 2021)
Frederick W. Gooding Jr.’s The Black Oscars: From Mammy to Minny, What the Academy Awards Tell Us about African Americans (Rowman & Littlefield, 2020)
Bruce Davis, The Academy and the Award (Brandeis University Press, 2022)

“The First Years of #OscarsSoWhite: Louise Beavers, Hattie McDaniel, and the History of Black Media Discourse at the Academy Awards, Cinephile
PR and Politics at Hollywood’s Biggest Night: The Academy Awards and Unionization (1929-1939),” Media Industries Journal

Explaining History helps you understand the 20th Century through critical conversations and expert interviews. We connect the past to the present. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and share.
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In this episode of the Explaining History Podcast, we return to Eugene Rogan's superb The Fall of the Ottomans to explore how military defeat and political crisis in the Balkan Wars transformed the Ottoman Empire from within—and set the stage for the birth of modern Turkey.
It's remarkable how topical the story of a declining empire, seemingly in endless crisis, yet still capable of surprising its enemies, feels at this moment. But the Ottoman story is worth understanding on its own terms, not just as a mirror to our own times.
We pick up the narrative in 1913, following the catastrophic First Balkan War in which the Ottomans lost most of their remaining European territories. The defeat of Edirne—a historic Ottoman city—triggered a political earthquake in Constantinople. The liberal government that had overseen the loss was overthrown, and when the Grand Vizier was assassinated in June 1913, the Committee of Union and Progress (the Young Turks) seized the opportunity to eliminate their opponents once and for all.
The result was the emergence of a ruling triumvirate that would dominate the empire until its final collapse: Enver Pasha, Talat Pasha, and Cemal Pasha. More powerful than the Sultan himself, these men would lead the Ottoman Empire into the First World War and oversee both its greatest triumphs and its ultimate destruction.
But 1913 also brought an unexpected gift. Bulgaria, aggrieved by the division of spoils after the First Balkan War, attacked its former allies—Greece and Serbia—sparking the Second Balkan War. With Bulgarian forces redeployed away from the Ottoman frontier, Enver Pasha seized his moment. Defying a cautious government, he led Ottoman forces back into Edirne, liberating the city on 9th July 1913 to national euphoria. The hero of the 1908 revolution became the liberator of Edirne, and the CUP gained unprecedented popular support.
Yet this victory masked deeper problems. The same crisis that brought the Young Turks to power also intensified their centralising, Turkifying policies—measures that would alienate the empire's Arab provinces. Arabic was displaced from schools and courts, Turkish officials replaced experienced Arab civil servants, and demands for autonomy were met with police crackdowns.
Eugene Rogan traces the emergence of Arabist societies, from Al-Fatah in Paris (which envisaged a dual Turco-Arab monarchy on the Austro-Hungarian model) to the Ottoman Decentralisation Party in Cairo. These organisations sought not independence but greater rights within the empire—a federal system, cultural autonomy, equal status with Turks. But the CUP, at the height of the Balkan crisis, was in no mood to compromise.
When the Beirut Reform Society published a manifesto calling for administrative decentralisation in 1913, Ottoman authorities closed its offices and ordered it to disband. A week of strikes and protests ended with prisoners released—but the society never reopened. Arabism went underground, and with it, the possibility of holding the empire together through compromise and cooperation.
Empires die, or they evolve. Those that lack the capacity to fend off external threats while accommodating internal diversity through assimilation, compromise, and cooperation—those are the ones that tend to die more rapidly. The Ottoman story is a lesson in what happens when a ruling elite, facing existential crisis, chooses centralisation over conciliation.
Topics covered:
The political fallout from the loss of Edirne
The assassination of Grand Vizier Mahmud Şevket Pasha
The CUP's purge of liberal opponents
The rise of the triumvirate: Enver, Talat, and Cemal Pasha
The Second Balkan War and Bulgaria's fatal miscalculation
Enver's recapture of Edirne and its propaganda value
The emergence of Arabist societies and their demands
The CUP's centralising, Turkifying policies
The closure of the Beirut Reform Society
The shift from imperial to national identity

Explaining History helps you understand the 20th Century through critical conversations and expert interviews. We connect the past to the present. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and share.
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In this solo episode of the Explaining History Podcast, I step back from the daily news cycle to offer a comprehensive analysis of where we stand in the unfolding crisis with Iran—and what it tells us about the state of American power in the twenty-first century.

What began as what Donald Trump apparently imagined would be a 48-hour spectacular—a Venezuela-style "regime change" moment complete with TV-friendly images of military might—has rapidly escalated into something far more dangerous. The escalation ladder that took years in Vietnam is being condensed into days, and with none of the strategic thinking that accompanied even the most flawed of America's previous interventions.
I examine the chaotic decision-making behind the current conflict. Trump, advised by Netanyahu, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff, launched this war with virtually no understanding of Iran—its capabilities, its politics, or the strength of its nationalist sentiment. The result is that every conceivable objective the US might have had is now moving into reverse.
The role of Israel is crucial here. While Trump appears to be looking for a quick exit, Israel's interests lie in weakening Iran for a generation—perhaps even in triggering an inter-communal civil war. The gap between American and Israeli objectives is widening, and Trump seems genuinely surprised that a war doesn't simply end when he declares it over.
I also explore the deeper historical context: Iran's experience of quasi-colonization, the long shadow of the 1953 CIA-backed coup, and the return of Reza Pahlavi making embarrassingly explicit offers to sell Iran's oil in exchange for power. The global south watches these dynamics with knowing eyes—regime change has never been about democracy, but about installing client figures who will open the country to Wall Street exploitation.
Then there's the question of American military capacity. The industrial base that won World War II is gone, outsourced and mothballed during the neoliberal era. The social contract required to ask—or compel—Americans to fight for an oligarchic class is broken. And Iran has abundant missiles, cheap drones, and the ability to shut down the Persian Gulf.
What comes next? I see a future where America's strategic position in the Gulf states is fatally weakened, where shipping becomes consistently vulnerable, and where China emerges as the direct beneficiary. If America cuts and runs, it leaves Israel to face Iran alone—and of the two nuclear powers, it's Israel I'd be more worried about deploying that option.
This is the flailing moment of a dying imperium. Not strength, but insecurity and panic. Not strategy, but spectacle. And the consequences will reverberate for decades.
Topics covered:
Trump's decision-making and the role of Netanyahu, Kushner, and Witkoff
The gap between American and Israeli objectives
Iran's military capabilities and nationalist sentiment
The 1953 coup and the history of US intervention
Reza Pahlavi's embarrassing offer to sell Iran's oil
America's lost industrial base and broken social contract
The "escalation ladder" from Vietnam to Iran
China's potential role as beneficiary
Nuclear risks and the Israel factor
I also announce important changes to the podcast's platform. Due to ongoing difficulties with Patreon, we will be migrating to Substack in the coming weeks. If you're a current Patreon supporter, please download any content you wish to keep. I'll provide more details soon. The move will allow me to create a curated news feed with video clips, exclusive deep dives, and ad-free podcasts—at the same price.
Explaining History helps you understand the 20th Century through critical conversations and expert interviews. We connect the past to the present. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and share.
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In this episode of the Explaining History Podcast, we're joined once again by writer and cultural critic Dennis Broe to discuss his new novel, *Pornocopia*, and what it reveals about the intertwined histories of the gambling and pornography industries in post-war America.

Set in 1952, *Pornocopia* follows detective Harry Palmer through Los Angeles and Las Vegas at a crucial moment when two nascent industries—pornography and gambling—were beginning their long march from the criminal fringe to the centre of American economic life. It's a moment when the mob's low-level control of these enterprises was coming into conflict with larger financial interests seeking to "rationalise" them for mainstream profitability.

Dennis brings his characteristic depth of historical analysis to the conversation, tracing the lines from 1950s smut peddlers to today's multi-billion dollar global industries. The statistics are staggering: global porn industry profits reached $76 billion in 2024—significantly larger than the entire US movie industry. Gambling revenues hit $64 billion in 2025, rising nearly 9% in a single year. Sports betting apps now saturate everyday life, and prediction markets like Kalshi are replacing traditional polling as arbiters of political outcomes.

But beneath the numbers lies a darker story. Dennis explores how both industries are built on addiction and exploitation, how they lure people with promises of easy intimacy or quick riches while delivering the opposite. We discuss the life histories of porn actresses—almost invariably marked by childhood sexual abuse—and the way gambling has become a substitute for genuine human connection and reflection.

The conversation ranges widely: from the Trump family fortune (amassed in saloons and brothels during the California gold rush) to J. Edgar Hoover's obsessive focus on communists while organised crime flourished; from the Kefauver hearings to Bobby Kennedy's serious investigations of the mob; from Paul Thomas Anderson's *Boogie Nights* to the "pornification" of mainstream culture.

We also touch on contemporary politics—how prediction markets now shape our understanding of elections, and what it means when "what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas" is revealed as a slogan designed to hide embarrassment rather than celebrate freedom.

**Topics covered:**
- The scale of modern porn and gambling industries
- 1952 as a crucial moment of transition for both industries
- The mob's role in early porn and Las Vegas money laundering
- J. Edgar Hoover's neglect of organised crime
- The Trump family fortune's origins in gambling and sex trafficking
- Porn actresses' life histories and the conditions that feed the industry
- Gambling as a substitute for reflection and genuine connection
- Prediction markets and the "casino-isation" of politics
- The Kefauver hearings and Bobby Kennedy's mob investigations
- Hollywood's relationship with the porn industry

*If you enjoy the podcast, please consider supporting us on Patreon for ad-free listening and exclusive content. Dennis Broe's new novel, *Pornocopia*, is out now from all good online retailers—and if you can, please buy from an independent bookstore or direct from the publisher.*

Explaining History helps you understand the 20th Century through critical conversations and expert interviews. We connect the past to the present. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and share.
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Become a Patron: patreon.com/explaininghistory
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Website: explaininghistory.org

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.