The Grumpy Strategists

Marcus and Michael get serious about biofuel, with a novel feedstock straight from Defence's Russell Offices. They look at the rapidly expanding Iran War, with multiple US partners joining in a messy patchwork, all desperately trying to quarantine their roles into a defensive effort. The missile supply issues have intensified, with US production being diverted to the war and other forces' orders being delayed - probably by years. Despite the war apparently being way ahead of schedule, Iran's attacks are continuing, Israel is evacuating citizens away from Hezbollah drones, and US diplomats are leaving Saudi and Turkey. The episode ends with a capability roundup for Australia - pricey Peregrines, artisanal K-9s, maritime precinct sketches and broken submarines.

Marcus and Michael reflect on their wisdom in modifying the Grumpies bunker to hold thousands of litres of diesel and 8 pallets of tinned tomatoes, as the war escalates in the Middle East. They set out three scenarios for the outcome and only one of them - the least likely (spoiler, it involves rose petals and cheering crowds)- is good. Then it's on to examine the desperate contortions of US allies - notably the UK's Keir Starmer and our own PM Albanese, and ministers Marles and Wong - to avoid thinking or talking about our major ally assassinating foreign governments as a new normal. It turns out assassinating people is okay if they are 'bad guys'. And, luckily, we were kept in the dark until afterwards. Phew.

Marcus goes diving to try to find rock bottom in Australian political discourse, but has to come up for air. He at least found the curious case of a Canberra cafe that police found had put up satirical posters & hosts live music (What have we come to as a people???). No arrests or jail time yet....Then it's back to the undersea world of AUKUS progress and the far more concrete, rapid momentum behind Chinese nuclear powered - and armed - submarine production. They managed to build a new shed and other facilities in 3 years (not 16) and seem to have completed 11 nuclear submarines since AUKUS was announced. Ouch. On the Xi Jinping downside though, the riskiest job in the Chinese military turns out to be one he promoted you into: Xi's purges are expanding in his later years in power, and even seasoned Pekinologists are confused.

The Grumpy Strategists boggle at the sheer chutzpah of PM Albanese and State Premier Malinauskas announcing as a triumph spending $30 billion & taking until 2040 to build submarine construction sheds (not actual submarines). At least the premier had the honesty to say the biggest beneficiaries weren't Australians worried about security, they were the South Australians who are to receive this firehose of taxpayer cash. He's right to be boggled. Meanwhile, Australia's leaders across the spectrum from Labor, through the Coalition into One Nation land are outdoing each other in expressing their fear about the potential return of 34 women and children from camps in Syria, while clamping down on the evil of immigration. It's bad form to notice that our health system - and many other industries - depend on migrants....

The Grumpy Strategists pan for gold in 234 pages of dense, incoherent Government paperwork setting out the Albanese Government's revised plans for our nation's defence, and find some rather smelly nuggets. About $3.2 billion dollars is being brought forward to be spent earlier than planned - with a $1.2 billion chunk on more bills for those still distant AUKUS subs. But the overall Defence budget for this next 4 years is being cut by $2.6 billion. Mr Albanese may have smiled at US President Donald Trump, but he's stood strong against pressure to grow defence spending and got Treasury's razor gang in. Canadian PM Carney might make rousing speeches at Davos opposing the Trump Administration, but Mr Albanese acts. It's a great day for independent middle powers! Oh, and the Defence bureaucracy finds a way to insult King Charles.