The Chuck ToddCast

A month out from the midterms, Chuck Todd separates the garbage polls from the real ones and lands on the NYT/Siena swing-state data: Democrats are winning or tied in Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, Talarico is over 50, and Rob Sand holds a double-digit lead. His key insight is that voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans, with affordability driving everything and millennials the most squeezed group in the country. He also hits a Ken Paxton ad that basically says "support the team" without ever mentioning Paxton, Trump doxxing Tom Cotton over daylight saving time, and Hegseth's new Pentagon Office of Religious Affairs, announced at Quantico with the line that "the real battle is spiritual." Chuck calls that last one what happens in theocracies, and says Hegseth deserves impeachment.

Then, Jennifer Palmieri — former Obama and Clinton communications director and host of Crooked Media's Long Play, the documentary series traveling six Southern states — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue the South is now the epicenter of American politics and Democrats have spent years writing it off. One-party rule has bred civic disengagement, she says, and the region gets treated as a monolith when it's anything but. Her sharpest point: Democrats are overinvesting in Maine and underinvesting in Mississippi, where Scott Colom has a real path. She also makes the case that if Greg Abbott loses, it'll be over education, that Gina Hinojosa is running a smart campaign, and that religion remains the biggest obstacle Democrats face in a region where life is faith, family, and football.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Earl Warren’s appointment as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and why it’s important for justices to have experience in the political system as elected officials. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in college football.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
06:00 Separating the real polls from the garbage
09:15 Inside the NYT/Siena swing state numbers
13:00 Voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans
16:45 Millennials, Gen Z, and the generational split
20:00 The Democratic brand problem nobody has solved
23:30 Paxton's "support the team" ad and the rot in Republican politics
27:00 Trump's denial, Hassett's spin, and the $90 Medicare checks
31:45 Trump doxxes Tom Cotton over daylight saving time
35:30 The Atlantic on Kash Patel and the 2020 fraud hunt
41:45 Hegseth's Office of Religious Affairs and an ideological military
58:00 Jennifer Palmieri joins the Chuck ToddCast
1:00:15 Why the South became the epicenter of American politics
1:04:45 The South isn't a monolith — and Democrats keep treating it like one
1:12:15 No opposition, no primaries: what one-party rule does to a state
1:18:45 Georgia's civil rights legacy and the decisions still shaping it
1:21:30 Mississippi's path, and why Democrats are investing in the wrong places
1:28:45 The Latino vote and the transformation of Texas
1:30:30 Education, Abbott, and the Hinojosa campaign
1:36:15 Faith, family, football — and the Democratic communication problem
1:45:30 Talarico, the rising floor in Texas, and the brand problem
1:53:15 Why Jon Ossoff has had a very good 2026
1:56:00 ToddCast Time Machine Earl Warren sworn in as chief justice
1:56:30 We’re suffering from a lack of diversity of experience on SCOTUS
1:59:00 Last elected politician on the court left 50 years ago. Earl warren
2:00:30 Eisenhower offered Warren a quid pro quo for seat
2:03:30 Warren knew Brown v Board needed to be 9-0
2:07:00 Eisenhower came to regret appointing Warren
2:09:00 Warren court reshaped constitutional law & expanded rights
2:14:15 We’ve screened out political experience for SCOTUS justices
2:15:45 Last Democrat to install a chief justice was Harry Truman
2:19:30 Ask Chuck
2:19:45 Can’t get into baseball… what am I missing?
2:24:30 Best comedic political impressions?
2:28:15 What do you make of Carnegie Mellon’s expansion into Miami
2:31:30 Thank you for interview about Marian Anderson
2:33:00 Could commit to constituent service be persuasive?
2:37:15 College football recap
18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD
http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jennifer Palmieri — former Obama and Clinton communications director and host of Crooked Media's Long Play, the documentary series traveling six Southern states — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue the South is now the epicenter of American politics and Democrats have spent years writing it off. One-party rule has bred civic disengagement, she says, and the region gets treated as a monolith when it's anything but. Her sharpest point: Democrats are overinvesting in Maine and underinvesting in Mississippi, where Scott Colom has a real path. She also makes the case that if Greg Abbott loses, it'll be over education, that Gina Hinojosa is running a smart campaign, and that religion remains the biggest obstacle Democrats face in a region where life is faith, family, and football.
Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
02:15 Why the South became the epicenter of American politics
06:45 The South isn't a monolith — and Democrats keep treating it like one
14:15 No opposition, no primaries: what one-party rule does to a state
20:45 Georgia's civil rights legacy and the decisions still shaping it
23:30 Mississippi's path, and why Democrats are investing in the wrong places
30:45 The Latino vote and the transformation of Texas
32:30 Education, Abbott, and the Hinojosa campaign
38:15 Faith, family, football — and the Democratic communication problem
47:30 Talarico, the rising floor in Texas, and the brand problem
55:15 Why Jon Ossoff has had a very good 2026
18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD
http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A month out from the midterms, Chuck Todd separates the garbage polls from the real ones and lands on the NYT/Siena swing-state data: Democrats are winning or tied in Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, Talarico is over 50, and Rob Sand holds a double-digit lead. His key insight is that voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans, with affordability driving everything and millennials the most squeezed group in the country. He also hits a Ken Paxton ad that basically says "support the team" without ever mentioning Paxton, Trump doxxing Tom Cotton over daylight saving time, and Hegseth's new Pentagon Office of Religious Affairs, announced at Quantico with the line that "the real battle is spiritual." Chuck calls that last one what happens in theocracies, and says Hegseth deserves impeachment.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Earl Warren’s appointment as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and why it’s important for justices to have experience in the political system as elected officials. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in college football.

Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
06:00 Separating the real polls from the garbage
09:15 Inside the NYT/Siena swing state numbers
13:00 Voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans
16:45 Millennials, Gen Z, and the generational split
20:00 The Democratic brand problem nobody has solved
23:30 Paxton's "support the team" ad and the rot in Republican politics
27:00 Trump's denial, Hassett's spin, and the $90 Medicare checks
31:45 Trump doxxes Tom Cotton over daylight saving time
35:30 The Atlantic on Kash Patel and the 2020 fraud hunt
41:45 Hegseth's Office of Religious Affairs and an ideological military
57:30 ToddCast Time Machine Earl Warren sworn in as chief justice
58:00 We’re suffering from a lack of diversity of experience on SCOTUS
1:00:30 Last elected politician on the court left 50 years ago. Earl warren
1:02:00 Eisenhower offered Warren a quid pro quo for seat
1:05:00 Warren knew Brown v Board needed to be 9-0
1:08:30 Eisenhower came to regret appointing Warren
1:10:30 Warren court reshaped constitutional law & expanded rights
1:15:45 We’ve screened out political experience for SCOTUS justices
1:17:15 Last Democrat to install a chief justice was Harry Truman
1:21:00 Ask Chuck
1:21:15 Can’t get into baseball… what am I missing?
1:26:00 Best comedic political impressions?
1:29:45 What do you make of Carnegie Mellon’s expansion into Miami
1:33:00 Thank you for interview about Marian Anderson
1:34:30 Could commit to constituent service be persuasive?
1:38:45 College football recap


18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD
http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the attempted hijacking of a Dubai-to-Tel Aviv flight and the reminder that history turns as much on what almost happened as what did. With 33 days to the midterms, Ken Paxton got caught on tape at a private event calling Trump's midterm convention a negative — and is now in full cleanup mode, nervous about having crossed the president. Chuck returns to the Eric Schmitt debacle as a window into the intellectual rot of the Trump-era GOP: nobody in the room double-checked the facts, because loyalty is now valued over competence and the conclusion arrives before the evidence. He also unpacks Trump's White House AI summit, where six tech CEOs signed a one-page "morally binding" accord and Trump formally renamed AI "superintelligence" by executive order — a self-policing pact that does nothing for Republicans whose own voters are frightened of this technology.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.
18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD
http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
08:00 The attempted hijacking and the history that almost happened
11:45 Paxton caught on tape, and a campaign in cleanup mode
17:45 The Schmitt incident and the intellectual rot of the Trump GOP
27:30 Trump's AI summit, the "superintelligence" rebrand, and a self-policing pact
31:15 The issues polling best don't help Republicans at all
36:30 An economic backdrop the GOP can't ignore
39:45 The off-ramps Trump won't take
43:00 Voter exhaustion, instability, and what comes after a wipeout
00:52:30 Ask Chuck
00:52:45 Book recommendation about the “butterfly effect” in history
00:54:30 Thoughts on your monologue on fixing public ed
00:56:15 Why aren’t Democrats putting more resources into Texas?
01:00:45 Would you have a former FBI agent on the pod to discuss changes at FBI?
01:02:00 Can a self-described Democratic socialist like AOC win in America?
01:07:00 College football preview
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the attempted hijacking of a Dubai-to-Tel Aviv flight and the reminder that history turns as much on what almost happened as what did. With 33 days to the midterms, Ken Paxton got caught on tape at a private event calling Trump's midterm convention a negative — and is now in full cleanup mode, nervous about having crossed the president. Chuck returns to the Eric Schmitt debacle as a window into the intellectual rot of the Trump-era GOP: nobody in the room double-checked the facts, because loyalty is now valued over competence and the conclusion arrives before the evidence. He also unpacks Trump's White House AI summit, where six tech CEOs signed a one-page "morally binding" accord and Trump formally renamed AI "superintelligence" by executive order — a self-policing pact that does nothing for Republicans whose own voters are frightened of this technology.

Then, Florida State Rep. Angie Nixon — the Jacksonville union organizer and DSA member who upset Alex Vindman in the Senate primary despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1 — joins the Chuck ToddCast. She explains how she got into politics through community organizing, why she associates with the DSA while not agreeing with everything it wants, and argues Democrats lost Florida because they divested from the state after 2018 rather than because of ideology. She describes being assigned a basement office with rats as punishment in Tallahassee, calls the Florida legislature pay-to-play but still workable, and lays out what she'd do in the Senate: repeal the Big Beautiful Bill, extend ACA subsidies, get big money out of politics, and fund HBCUs. She won't commit to voting for Chuck Schumer.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD
http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
08:00 The attempted hijacking and the history that almost happened
11:45 Paxton caught on tape, and a campaign in cleanup mode
17:45 The Schmitt incident and the intellectual rot of the Trump GOP
27:30 Trump's AI summit, the "superintelligence" rebrand, and a self-policing pact
31:15 The issues polling best don't help Republicans at all
36:30 An economic backdrop the GOP can't ignore
39:45 The off-ramps Trump won't take
43:00 Voter exhaustion, instability, and what comes after a wipeout
00:55:45 Angie Nixon joins the Chuck ToddCast
00:56:45 From community organizing to the statehouse
01:01:15 Why the DSA — and where she parts ways with it
01:04:15 How Democrats lost Florida, and why divestment did it
01:10:15 Rats in the basement: corruption and pay-to-play in Tallahassee
01:16:30 What she wants to do in the Senate
01:22:15 Venezuelans afraid to leave the house, and Florida's political swings
01:28:15 Fixing the Democratic Party — and not committing to Schumer
1:35:15 Ask Chuck
1:35:30 Book recommendation about the “butterfly effect” in history
1:37:15 Thoughts on your monologue on fixing public ed
1:39:00 Why aren’t Democrats putting more resources into Texas?
1:42:30 Would you have a former FBI agent on the pod to discuss changes at FBI?
1:44:45 Can a self-described Democratic socialist like AOC win in America?
1:49:45 College football preview
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.