The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd opens with the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks, where Mark Carney walked away after last-minute American demands — chiefly on mid- and heavy-duty truck tariffs — and declared the U.S. can't be trusted as a partner. Asked about the tone of his remarks, Carney's answer was blunt: you are at war when you get attacked. Chuck notes the whole western world is quietly cheering him on even as individual European leaders push back while the EU took its deal, and argues the real problem is that this administration isn't negotiating with one voice. The fallout lands squarely on Senate battlegrounds, forcing Susan Collins to speak out against her own party's trade war. Then there's beef: Trump's move to let in 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef drew immediate fire from cattle groups and Republicans including Ashley Hinson and Tim Sheehy, and Chuck argues it's a tacit admission that the tariff regime is raising prices. Battleground states account for two-thirds of American cattle ranching, Iowa becomes the bellwether, and Trump is single-handedly making safe races competitive — while Scott Bessent defends the indefensible, calling tariff refunds corporate welfare and arguing the country needs fewer jobs because of deportations, all as the national debt clears $40 trillion.
Then Chuck highlights that polling between July 4th and Labor Day is largely wasted money, the August electorate isn't the November electorate, polling has gotten cheaper and worse, and polling averages deserve real skepticism. Arkansas is the case study — five Senate polls, four poorly done, and the one that got everyone's attention showing Tom Cotton in trouble had bad methodology. Chuck’s landing: don't buy the poll, but Cotton may be in some trouble anyway, because he's an old-school hawk who championed war with Iran in a state where Trump commands more personal loyalty than he does. He won't lose, but the margin could surprise. Chuck also flags red flags in Byron Donalds' northern Florida margins, argues the USS Abraham Lincoln reporting exposed a credibility crisis at a Pentagon where Hegseth treats accurate reporting as a personal threat, and warns it'll take decades for either the Pentagon or DOJ to recover. Plus: an NRSC memo declaring data center politics toxic, Mike Rogers keeping AIPAC out of Michigan while El-Sayed argues outside money shouldn't buy the state's politics, and Hakeem Jeffries meeting privately with Jared Kushner — which Chuck defends outright, because communication isn't betrayal even when the base wants confrontation. He closes on the question underneath the ToddCast's Lakers special report: with private credit over $1.5 trillion and life insurers holding roughly $900 billion of it, is Mark Walter an outlier or the canary in the coal mine? Chuck’s answer is that he isn't an outlier at all — this is how the machine works now, in a corner of finance where no single regulator can see the whole picture and where the real worry may be inflated valuations.
Then, former Ohio Governor and presidential candidate John Kasich joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that keeps returning to one uncomfortable diagnosis: Americans say they want the political middle and then retreat to their partisan corners the moment it counts. Kasich's read on this cycle is bracing coming from a Republican — the democratic socialists are talking about things voters actually care about, while moderate Democrats have stayed conspicuously quiet, which is exactly why the left has struck a nerve. On the data center backlash, Kasich has a straightforward answer — make them provide their own power — and points out that Ohio ratepayers are already footing higher bills for facilities located in Virginia. He's blunt that politicians are beholden to special interests before they're even sworn in, supports public financing of elections, and warns that neither the center-right nor center-left is producing genuinely interesting solutions to anything, least of all a national debt he says is going to hurt everybody if it isn't addressed.
Kasich also addresses recent concerns with the Pentagon, where he brings real budget-committee experience to a question few politicians take seriously: what exactly are we getting for a defense budget this size? He argues Pentagon leadership is deeply resistant to change, that America isn't developing new systems and technology well, that only about 1% of defense dollars go toward new systems, and that we simply don't need this many nuclear weapons — one alone, as he puts it, will ruin your day. He uses the B-2 bomber, built with parts manufactured across a strategically chosen array of states, to explain why reform is so brutally hard, while insisting it remains possible with the right political leadership. From there the conversation widens into Kasich's argument that moderates have historically been the bulwark against the extremes, that outside forces are often what actually force change , and that people outside both parties are about to turn hard on the tech companies. He wonders aloud whether a backlash to private equity could become a genuine threat to capitalism itself — pointing to private equity buying up youth sports to raise prices, and to firms that can effectively choose which regulators they deal with. Kasich closes with Ohio: whether the state is genuinely purple again or just having a bad Republican year, why he thinks it drifts back toward swing status over time, why the Senate race is too close to call, and whether Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy faces the harder barrier to winning the governorship.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Harry Truman nationalizing the railroad system… and why emergency presidential powers need to be taken back by congress. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
03:00 Noosphere interview this week is on China shock 2.0
05:00 Dynastic this week is on Alabama football
07:00 A couple shout outs from Chuck
11:00 Trade talks between U.S. and Canada collapse
11:30 Mark Carney says the US can’t be trusted as a partner
12:30 Carney says U.S. fired the first shot in trade war with Canada
13:45 Carney doesn’t want Canada subservient to U.S. & will diversify
15:00 European leaders are individually pushing back, but EU took the deal
16:00 The whole western world is cheering on Mark Carney
18:00 We were close to a trade deal, then U.S. added new demands
19:00 Howard Lutnick got involved and created new problems
20:15 The Trump administration isn’t negotiating with one voice
21:15 All the senate battleground races are impacted by Canada trade war
22:30 These aren’t trivial trade relationships with Canada
23:00 Susan Collins is being forced to speak out against trade war
24:30 Trump is now creating a fight with the beef & cattle industry
25:15 Importing cheap foreign beef is admission tariff regime hurts consumers
26:00 Trump will hurt American cattle producers by importing beef
26:45 Battleground states account for 2/3rds of cattle ranching
27:45 This could make uncompetitive elections very competitive
28:15 Iowa will be the bellwether for Trump’s policies impacting ag states
29:15 Trump is actively hurting Republicans in ag heavy states
30:00 Scott Bessent is forced to say the stupidest things to defend Trump
30:30 Bessent is now saying tariff refunds are corporate welfare
31:30 Bessent says we don’t need as many jobs due to deportations
32:15 Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market prior to midterms
33:15 National debt surpassed 40 trillion dollars, both sides point fingers
34:00 We’re going to have to deal with the debt sooner rather than later
35:00 It’s a waste of money to poll between July 4th and Labor Day
35:45 The electorate in August isn’t the same as the electorate in November
37:00 Polling has gotten cheaper… and worse
38:00 Be wary of indiscriminate polling averages
40:00 Arkansas has had 5 senate polls and 4 were poorly done
41:00 Arkansas poll got everyone’s attention, showed Cotton in trouble
42:30 The methodology of the poll was bad & limited
43:45 Don’t buy the poll, but Tom Cotton actually may be in trouble
44:30 Cotton is an old-school hawk, a champion of war with Iran
45:00 Trump has more personal loyalty in Arkansas than Cotton
45:45 Cotton won’t lose, but the margin may be surprisingly close
47:15 Examination of Bryon Donald's margins showed red flags
47:45 Donalds didn’t perform well in northern Florida counties
48:30 Base voters were motivated enough to go vote against him
49:00 USS Abraham Lincoln has revealed a credibility problem with DoD
49:30 Stars & Stripes was created to give troops access to independent info
50:00 Hegseth viewed accurate reporting as a threat to himself
50:30 Hegseth more worried about a presidential run than the troops
51:15 Can’t trust either the Justice Department or the Pentagon
52:00 It will take decades for either institution to regain credibility
53:30 NRSC put out memo saying data center politics are toxic
54:15 Messaging is to “let communities decide”
54:45 Data centers are the beginning of backlash against tech & AI
55:30 Mark Zuckerberg is only tech CEO who understands the backlash
56:00 Mike Rodgers doesn’t want AIPAC publicly involved in Michigan race
56:45 El-Sayed’s argument is outside interests shouldn’t purchase MI politics
57:30 Plenty of American jews support Israel, but not Netanyahu’s government
58:30 Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Jared Kushner
59:00 This meeting shows the Trump WH preparing for Speaker Jeffries
59:30 Jeffries in impossible position, base wants confrontation with Trump
1:00:30 Jeffries and Kushner SHOULD be talking, communication isn’t betrayal
1:01:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier, or the canary in the coal mine?
1:02:15 After financial crisis, government cracked down on banks
1:02:45 US private credit is now over $1.5 trillion dollar
1:03:30 Life insurance companies have become banks for the ultra wealthy
1:04:30 LIfe insurance companies can operate very differently
1:05:45 You can’t just pull your money out of a life insurance company
1:07:00 The incentives between investment firm & policyholder may not align
1:08:15 Life insurance companies hold $900B in private credit debt
1:08:45 Mark Walter isn’t an outlier, this is how the machine works
1:09:30 If a life insurance company fails, your money can be frozen
1:10:30 There are caps on policyholder protection
1:11:00 Executive Life failed when the junk bond market crashed
1:11:45 Executive Life bonds were bought by Leon Black, who founded Apollo
1:12:15 Insurance isn’t regulated by one agency, it’s multiple agencies and states
1:13:30 Regulators can’t get the picture of the entire machine, just pieces of it
1:14:15 Finance regulators have been siloed off from each other
1:15:45 The real worry here could be inflated valuations
1:21:30 John Kasich joins the Chuck ToddCast
1:23:45 People say they want the middle, then retreat to partisan corners
1:25:00 Voters keep rejecting the party in power
1:27:15 It took six presidential elections to get beyond Lincoln
1:28:15 Democratic socialists are talking about things voters care about
1:29:00 Moderate Dems are staying quiet while socialists have struck a nerve
1:32:30 Rent control doesn’t work, but sounds appealing to voters in NYC
1:33:30 The healthcare system doesn’t keep us healthy, only treats the sick
1:35:00 Healthcare and education have atrophied over the years
1:36:30 Competition drives change in education, teachers union doesn’t want change
1:37:45 How would you handle the public backlash to data centers and big tech?
1:38:15 Data centers should be forced to provide their own power
1:38:45 Customers in Ohio are paying higher rates for data centers in Virginia
1:40:00 Politicians are beholden to special interests before they’re sworn in
1:40:15 Support public financing for elections
1:41:30 The center right & left aren’t coming up with interesting solutions
1:43:00 If we don’t fix the national debt it’s going to hurt everybody
1:44:30 What are we getting from our massive military budget?
1:45:15 Pentagon leaders are highly resistant to change
1:47:00 We aren’t developing new systems & tech well
1:47:30 Only 1% of the defense dollars go to new systems
1:48:30 Don’t need this many nukes, one alone will ruin your day
1:49:15 Trying to change the Pentagon is incredibly difficult
1:49:45 B2 bomber was built with parts all manufactured in different states
1:51:00 It is possible for the Pentagon to be reformed with right political leadership
1:53:30 Moderates have served as the bulwark against the extremes
1:54:15 Who are leaders from the past who electrified the country?
1:56:30 Bill Clinton isn’t a budget balancer without Ross Perot
1:58:00 Ralph Nader also forced change from the outside
1:59:30 People outside the parties will start turning on the tech companies
2:01:15 Could backlash to private equity become a threat to capitalism?
2:01:45 Private equity is now buying up youth sports to raise prices?
2:04:45 Ohio went from #47 to #1 by hiring smart business investors
2:06:15 Private equity can pick the regulators they want to deal with
2:08:00 Is Ohio purple again or is this just a bad year for Republicans?
2:08:30 Over time, Ohio will naturally drift back to swing status
2:09:30 Ohio senate is too close to call
2:12:00 Harder barrier to break: Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy?
2:13:15 Ramaswamy will run into friction with Ohio voters due to his race
2:14:45 Would still bet that Ramaswamy will win
2:16:00 There’s a formula to what makes a good leader
2:17:30 Rural communities are being devastated by drugs & homelessness
2:18:15 There is abject poverty in appalachia
2:19:15 What young leaders have impressed you in the past couple years?
2:21:45 Predictions for Miami’s upcoming football season
2:23:30 Check out the John Kasich Show on SiriusXM
2:25:00 ToddCast Time Machine - 1950, Truman seizes the nation’s railroads
2:25:45 Private rail was the primary transportation system at the time
2:26:15 Congress had given the president the tool to do this
2:27:00 The authority was used during WW1 and WW2
2:27:30 Truman wanted to draft striking rail workers into the military
2:28:00 The strike was settled while Truman was addressing congress
2:28:30 Railroad seizure became routine in the Truman administration
2:29:30 Truman decided country couldn’t risk rail strike during Korean War
2:30:45 Truman’s authority was never really challenged
2:31:15 The rail workers unions couldn’t stop workers from walking off the job
2:32:00 In April 1952 steelworkers were threatening to strike
2:33:30 Steel industry sued Truman and won after he tried to seize it
2:34:00 Rail seizure power was granted by congress, not for steel
2:35:45 Future presidents tried to use this same authority, didn’t always work
2:36:15 Congress needs to take back emergency powers after granting them
2:37:45 Could a future president try to use this power to seize the AI industry?
2:39:30 The lesson is how presidents accumulate power over time
2:40:15 Ask Chuck
2:40:30 Parallels between Natalie Harp and Isabel Lyon?
2:44:45 What gives you pause about Mark Kelly as a candidate?
2:48:30 Could a Democratic wave election change smaller local politics?
2:51:15 What is motivating Darline Graham to run for a full term?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Ohio Governor and presidential candidate John Kasich joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that keeps returning to one uncomfortable diagnosis: Americans say they want the political middle and then retreat to their partisan corners the moment it counts. Kasich's read on this cycle is bracing coming from a Republican — the democratic socialists are talking about things voters actually care about, while moderate Democrats have stayed conspicuously quiet, which is exactly why the left has struck a nerve. On the data center backlash, Kasich has a straightforward answer — make them provide their own power — and points out that Ohio ratepayers are already footing higher bills for facilities located in Virginia. He's blunt that politicians are beholden to special interests before they're even sworn in, supports public financing of elections, and warns that neither the center-right nor center-left is producing genuinely interesting solutions to anything, least of all a national debt he says is going to hurt everybody if it isn't addressed.
Kasich also addresses recent concerns with the Pentagon, where he brings real budget-committee experience to a question few politicians take seriously: what exactly are we getting for a defense budget this size? He argues Pentagon leadership is deeply resistant to change, that America isn't developing new systems and technology well, that only about 1% of defense dollars go toward new systems, and that we simply don't need this many nuclear weapons — one alone, as he puts it, will ruin your day. He uses the B-2 bomber, built with parts manufactured across a strategically chosen array of states, to explain why reform is so brutally hard, while insisting it remains possible with the right political leadership. From there the conversation widens into Kasich's argument that moderates have historically been the bulwark against the extremes, that outside forces are often what actually force change , and that people outside both parties are about to turn hard on the tech companies. He wonders aloud whether a backlash to private equity could become a genuine threat to capitalism itself — pointing to private equity buying up youth sports to raise prices, and to firms that can effectively choose which regulators they deal with. Kasich closes with Ohio: whether the state is genuinely purple again or just having a bad Republican year, why he thinks it drifts back toward swing status over time, why the Senate race is too close to call, and whether Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy faces the harder barrier to winning the governorship.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 John Kasich joins the Chuck ToddCast
02:15 People say they want the middle, then retreat to partisan corners
03:30 Voters keep rejecting the party in power
05:45 It took six presidential elections to get beyond Lincoln
06:45 Democratic socialists are talking about things voters care about
07:30 Moderate Dems are staying quiet while socialists have struck a nerve
11:00 Rent control doesn’t work, but sounds appealing to voters in NYC
12:00 The healthcare system doesn’t keep us healthy, only treats the sick
13:30 Healthcare and education have atrophied over the years
15:00 Competition drives change in education, teachers union doesn’t want change
16:15 How would you handle the public backlash to data centers and big tech?
16:45 Data centers should be forced to provide their own power
17:15 Customers in Ohio are paying higher rates for data centers in Virginia
18:30 Politicians are beholden to special interests before they’re sworn in
18:45 Support public financing for elections
20:00 The center right & left aren’t coming up with interesting solutions
21:30 If we don’t fix the national debt it’s going to hurt everybody
23:00 What are we getting from our massive military budget?
23:45 Pentagon leaders are highly resistant to change
25:30 We aren’t developing new systems & tech well
26:00 Only 1% of the defense dollars go to new systems
27:00 Don’t need this many nukes, one alone will ruin your day
27:45 Trying to change the Pentagon is incredibly difficult
28:15 B2 bomber was built with parts all manufactured in different states
29:30 It is possible for the Pentagon to be reformed with right political leadership
32:00 Moderates have served as the bulwark against the extremes
32:45 Who are leaders from the past who electrified the country?
35:00 Bill Clinton isn’t a budget balancer without Ross Perot
36:30 Ralph Nader also forced change from the outside
38:00 People outside the parties will start turning on the tech companies
39:45 Could backlash to private equity become a threat to capitalism?
40:15 Private equity is now buying up youth sports to raise prices?
43:15 Ohio went from #47 to #1 by hiring smart business investors
44:45 Private equity can pick the regulators they want to deal with
46:30 Is Ohio purple again or is this just a bad year for Republicans?
47:00 Over time, Ohio will naturally drift back to swing status
48:00 Ohio senate is too close to call
50:30 Harder barrier to break: Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy?
51:45 Ramaswamy will run into friction with Ohio voters due to his race
53:15 Would still bet that Ramaswamy will win
54:30 There’s a formula to what makes a good leader
56:00 Rural communities are being devastated by drugs & homelessness
56:45 There is abject poverty in appalachia
57:45 What young leaders have impressed you in the past couple years?
1:00:15 Predictions for Miami’s upcoming football season
1:02:00 Check out the John Kasich Show on SiriusXM
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks, where Mark Carney walked away after last-minute American demands — chiefly on mid- and heavy-duty truck tariffs — and declared the U.S. can't be trusted as a partner. Asked about the tone of his remarks, Carney's answer was blunt: you are at war when you get attacked. Chuck notes the whole western world is quietly cheering him on even as individual European leaders push back while the EU took its deal, and argues the real problem is that this administration isn't negotiating with one voice. The fallout lands squarely on Senate battlegrounds, forcing Susan Collins to speak out against her own party's trade war. Then there's beef: Trump's move to let in 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef drew immediate fire from cattle groups and Republicans including Ashley Hinson and Tim Sheehy, and Chuck argues it's a tacit admission that the tariff regime is raising prices. Battleground states account for two-thirds of American cattle ranching, Iowa becomes the bellwether, and Trump is single-handedly making safe races competitive — while Scott Bessent defends the indefensible, calling tariff refunds corporate welfare and arguing the country needs fewer jobs because of deportations, all as the national debt clears $40 trillion.
Then Chuck highlights that polling between July 4th and Labor Day is largely wasted money, the August electorate isn't the November electorate, polling has gotten cheaper and worse, and polling averages deserve real skepticism. Arkansas is the case study — five Senate polls, four poorly done, and the one that got everyone's attention showing Tom Cotton in trouble had bad methodology. Chuck’s landing: don't buy the poll, but Cotton may be in some trouble anyway, because he's an old-school hawk who championed war with Iran in a state where Trump commands more personal loyalty than he does. He won't lose, but the margin could surprise. Chuck also flags red flags in Byron Donalds' northern Florida margins, argues the USS Abraham Lincoln reporting exposed a credibility crisis at a Pentagon where Hegseth treats accurate reporting as a personal threat, and warns it'll take decades for either the Pentagon or DOJ to recover. Plus: an NRSC memo declaring data center politics toxic, Mike Rogers keeping AIPAC out of Michigan while El-Sayed argues outside money shouldn't buy the state's politics, and Hakeem Jeffries meeting privately with Jared Kushner — which Chuck defends outright, because communication isn't betrayal even when the base wants confrontation. He closes on the question underneath the ToddCast's Lakers special report: with private credit over $1.5 trillion and life insurers holding roughly $900 billion of it, is Mark Walter an outlier or the canary in the coal mine? Chuck’s answer is that he isn't an outlier at all — this is how the machine works now, in a corner of finance where no single regulator can see the whole picture and where the real worry may be inflated valuations.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Harry Truman nationalizing the railroad system… and why emergency presidential powers need to be taken back by congress. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
03:00 Noosphere interview this week is on China shock 2.0
05:00 Dynastic this week is on Alabama football
07:00 A couple shout outs from Chuck
11:00 Trade talks between U.S. and Canada collapse
11:30 Mark Carney says the US can’t be trusted as a partner
12:30 Carney says U.S. fired the first shot in trade war with Canada
13:45 Carney doesn’t want Canada subservient to U.S. & will diversify
15:00 European leaders are individually pushing back, but EU took the deal
16:00 The whole western world is cheering on Mark Carney
18:00 We were close to a trade deal, then U.S. added new demands
19:00 Howard Lutnick got involved and created new problems
20:15 The Trump administration isn’t negotiating with one voice
21:15 All the senate battleground races are impacted by Canada trade war
22:30 These aren’t trivial trade relationships with Canada
23:00 Susan Collins is being forced to speak out against trade war
24:30 Trump is now creating a fight with the beef & cattle industry
25:15 Importing cheap foreign beef is admission tariff regime hurts consumers
26:00 Trump will hurt American cattle producers by importing beef
26:45 Battleground states account for 2/3rds of cattle ranching
27:45 This could make uncompetitive elections very competitive
28:15 Iowa will be the bellwether for Trump’s policies impacting ag states
29:15 Trump is actively hurting Republicans in ag heavy states
30:00 Scott Bessent is forced to say the stupidest things to defend Trump
30:30 Bessent is now saying tariff refunds are corporate welfare
31:30 Bessent says we don’t need as many jobs due to deportations
32:15 Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market prior to midterms
33:15 National debt surpassed 40 trillion dollars, both sides point fingers
34:00 We’re going to have to deal with the debt sooner rather than later
35:00 It’s a waste of money to poll between July 4th and Labor Day
35:45 The electorate in August isn’t the same as the electorate in November
37:00 Polling has gotten cheaper… and worse
38:00 Be wary of indiscriminate polling averages
40:00 Arkansas has had 5 senate polls and 4 were poorly done
41:00 Arkansas poll got everyone’s attention, showed Cotton in trouble
42:30 The methodology of the poll was bad & limited
43:45 Don’t buy the poll, but Tom Cotton actually may be in trouble
44:30 Cotton is an old-school hawk, a champion of war with Iran
45:00 Trump has more personal loyalty in Arkansas than Cotton
45:45 Cotton won’t lose, but the margin may be surprisingly close
47:15 Examination of Bryon Donald's margins showed red flags
47:45 Donalds didn’t perform well in northern Florida counties
48:30 Base voters were motivated enough to go vote against him
49:00 USS Abraham Lincoln has revealed a credibility problem with DoD
49:30 Stars & Stripes was created to give troops access to independent info
50:00 Hegseth viewed accurate reporting as a threat to himself
50:30 Hegseth more worried about a presidential run than the troops
51:15 Can’t trust either the Justice Department or the Pentagon
52:00 It will take decades for either institution to regain credibility
53:30 NRSC put out memo saying data center politics are toxic
54:15 Messaging is to “let communities decide”
54:45 Data centers are the beginning of backlash against tech & AI
55:30 Mark Zuckerberg is only tech CEO who understands the backlash
56:00 Mike Rodgers doesn’t want AIPAC publicly involved in Michigan race
56:45 El-Sayed’s argument is outside interests shouldn’t purchase MI politics
57:30 Plenty of American jews support Israel, but not Netanyahu’s government
58:30 Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Jared Kushner
59:00 This meeting shows the Trump WH preparing for Speaker Jeffries
59:30 Jeffries in impossible position, base wants confrontation with Trump
1:00:30 Jeffries and Kushner SHOULD be talking, communication isn’t betrayal
1:01:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier, or the canary in the coal mine?
1:02:15 After financial crisis, government cracked down on banks
1:02:45 US private credit is now over $1.5 trillion dollar
1:03:30 Life insurance companies have become banks for the ultra wealthy
1:04:30 LIfe insurance companies can operate very differently
1:05:45 You can’t just pull your money out of a life insurance company
1:07:00 The incentives between investment firm & policyholder may not align
1:08:15 Life insurance companies hold $900B in private credit debt
1:08:45 Mark Walter isn’t an outlier, this is how the machine works
1:09:30 If a life insurance company fails, your money can be frozen
1:10:30 There are caps on policyholder protection
1:11:00 Executive Life failed when the junk bond market crashed
1:11:45 Executive Life bonds were bought by Leon Black, who founded Apollo
1:12:15 Insurance isn’t regulated by one agency, it’s multiple agencies and states
1:13:30 Regulators can’t get the picture of the entire machine, just pieces of it
1:14:15 Finance regulators have been siloed off from each other
1:15:45 The real worry here could be inflated valuations
1:20:00 ToddCast Time Machine - 1950, Truman seizes the nation’s railroads
1:20:45 Private rail was the primary transportation system at the time
1:21:15 Congress had given the president the tool to do this
1:22:00 The authority was used during WW1 and WW2
1:22:30 Truman wanted to draft striking rail workers into the military
1:23:00 The strike was settled while Truman was addressing congress
1:23:30 Railroad seizure became routine in the Truman administration
1:24:30 Truman decided country couldn’t risk rail strike during Korean War
1:25:45 Truman’s authority was never really challenged
1:26:15 The rail workers unions couldn’t stop workers from walking off the job
1:27:00 In April 1952 steelworkers were threatening to strike
1:28:30 Steel industry sued Truman and won after he tried to seize it
1:29:00 Rail seizure power was granted by congress, not for steel
1:30:45 Future presidents tried to use this same authority, didn’t always work
1:31:15 Congress needs to take back emergency powers after granting them
1:32:45 Could a future president try to use this power to seize the AI industry?
1:34:30 The lesson is how presidents accumulate power over time
1:35:15 Ask Chuck
1:35:30 Parallels between Natalie Harp and Isabel Lyon?
1:39:45 What gives you pause about Mark Kelly as a candidate?
1:43:30 Could a Democratic wave election change smaller local politics?
1:46:15 What is motivating Darline Graham to run for a full term?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd closes the book on primary season with Florida — and leads with the stunning upset that ended it. State Rep. Angie Nixon, a Jacksonville former union organizer and Democratic Socialists of America member, beat Alex Vindman with 56% of the vote despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1, and will now face appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the final two years of Marco Rubio's old seat. Chuck’s read is that this wasn't a movement election so much as a performance gap: Vindman ran like the presumptive nominee, hoarded his money for a general election he never reached, and got flatly outworked with primary voters. He's curious what Vindman does with that war chest, and notes Vindman's whole profile felt like first-term Trump resistance in a cycle that's moved on. Elsewhere in Florida: Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in a majority-Black district, Cory Mills lost his primary, Republican turnout meaningfully outpaced Democratic turnout in Florida, and Chuck thinks it's improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds in the governor's race. But the bigger story is national, and it's about turnout as a tea leaf. More Trump-endorsed candidates went down, part of a trend Chuck argues shows Trump's relevance melting away as his approval drops — and that he's actively making things harder for his own party. Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots nationally, up from 54% in 2018, with the biggest jump in Alabama and double-digit increases across multiple states. Chuck is careful with the caveat: primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball — it tells you where your floor is, not your ceiling. Texas Democratic turnout rose even with marquee Republican races on the ballot, Kansas Republican turnout cratered (though Democrats still have work to do there), and Florida Democrats hemorrhaged voters to no-party affiliation — meaning you can see something real happening in Texas that simply isn't happening in Florida. His bottom line: Democrats will win more votes in November, and history says they win the midterms. The open question is whether they can take both chambers.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 72 year struggle of the women’s suffrage movement before achieving the ratification of the 19th amendment, presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of Democratic Presidential hopefuls who will work the hardest to win the nomination and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:30 Don’t miss the Toddcast Special Report on the Lakers sale
06:30 Primary season is basically wrapped up after Florida
07:45 Raw primary turnout is a good tealeaf to read ahead of midterms
09:00 Democratic voters have been more enthusiastic w/ higher turnout
09:30 Alex Vindman loses Florida senate primary to Angie Nixon
10:30 Vindman ran his race like he was the presumptive nominee
11:00 Nixon just outworked Vindman with primary voters
11:30 Vindman hoarded his money for the general
12:30 This wasn’t a movement election, Nixon just performed
13:15 The importance of the African-American vote in Dem primaries
15:15 Need to live in Florida for more than a couple years to run successfully
15:45 Most of the carpetbagger candidates lost their primaries
16:30 Will be interesting to see what Vindman does with his war chest
18:00 Voters care if you are of/from their community
20:00 Vindman felt like first-term Trump resistance
21:00 It’s improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds
22:15 Florida Republican turnout was much higher than Dems
23:45 Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in majority black district
24:45 Cory Mills loses his primary
25:30 More Trump endorsed candidates lost their primaries
27:15 Trump backed candidates losing has become a trend
27:45 Trump is going out of his way to make it harder for Republicans
28:30 Trump’s relevance is melting away as his approval drops
31:45 Democratic electorate is expanding in most competitive states
32:15 Primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball
32:45 Turnout tells you where your floor is, not the ceiling
34:30 Democrats outperformed their primary edge in the general in 2018
36:00 Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots, compared to 54% in ‘18
37:00 Biggest jump in Dem turnout was in Alabama
37:45 Multiple states with Democrat turnout up double digits
39:45 Alabama’s governor race may be very competitive
42:30 Texas Dem turnout was higher even with marquee GOP races
43:45 Florida Dems lost voters to a no party affiliation
44:30 You can see something happening in Texas, not in Florida
45:30 Republican turnout was way down in Kansas
47:15 Dems probably still have more work to do in Kansas
48:00 Dems will win more votes in November,
48:45 History says Dems win the midterms, but can they win both chambers?
52:15 ToddCast Time Machine moved due to Lakers deep dive special
53:45 The movement for women’s suffrage took 72 years
54:15 Movement started in Seneca Falls, NY with the “Declaration of Sentiments”
55:15 100 people sign that declaration. 68 women and 32 men
56:15 Women could work for wages & have no control over the money
57:00 The movement fractured over disagreement about the 15th amendment
58:00 Susan B. Anthony votes illegally and is arrested in 1872
58:30 Women’s suffrage amendment keeps being introduced and failing for 40 years
59:15 The people who started the movement die, and new leaders emerge
1:00:30 In 1919 congress passes the 19th Amendment, need 36 states to ratify
1:01:00 Tennessee becomes the final state needed to ratify
1:01:30 Vote keeps ending up tied in the Tennessee statehouse
1:02:30 Ratification passes the house 50-46
1:03:45 Women couldn’t immediately vote everywhere after passage
1:05:00 Charlotte Woodward was only signatory that lived to see 19th amendment
1:05:45 Woodward lived long enough to see it, but was too old/sick to vote herself
1:06:45 A political movement often requires one generation to build it for the next one
1:07:45 After Trump, America will need a hard fought reform movement
1:09:30 America eventually gets it right, after exhausting other paths
1:10:45 ToddCast Top 5 candidates working the hardest to win
1:11:15 #1 AOC
1:13:30 #2 Pete Buttigieg
1:13:45 #3 Kamala Harris
1:14:00 #4 Mark Kelly + #5 Gavin Newsom
1:15:45 Jon Ossoff didn’t need to make his Natalie comment
1:17:45 Andy Beshear + Rahm Emmanuel don’t scare red state Dems
1:23:00 Ask Chuck
1:24:00 Can Dems actually bring accountability to Trump if they take congress?
1:31:30 Why were outsider Dem candidates so competitive in MI and WI?
1:35:15 Why can Trump do whatever he wants unchecked?
1:40:45 How should newsrooms cover the Natalie Harp story??
1:46:00 How do we hold politicians to account for upholding the constitution despite religion?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd closes the book on primary season with Florida — and leads with the stunning upset that ended it. State Rep. Angie Nixon, a Jacksonville former union organizer and Democratic Socialists of America member, beat Alex Vindman with 56% of the vote despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1, and will now face appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the final two years of Marco Rubio's old seat. Chuck’s read is that this wasn't a movement election so much as a performance gap: Vindman ran like the presumptive nominee, hoarded his money for a general election he never reached, and got flatly outworked with primary voters. He's curious what Vindman does with that war chest, and notes Vindman's whole profile felt like first-term Trump resistance in a cycle that's moved on. Elsewhere in Florida: Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in a majority-Black district, Cory Mills lost his primary, Republican turnout meaningfully outpaced Democratic turnout in Florida, and Chuck thinks it's improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds in the governor's race. But the bigger story is national, and it's about turnout as a tea leaf. More Trump-endorsed candidates went down, part of a trend Chuck argues shows Trump's relevance melting away as his approval drops — and that he's actively making things harder for his own party. Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots nationally, up from 54% in 2018, with the biggest jump in Alabama and double-digit increases across multiple states. Chuck is careful with the caveat: primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball — it tells you where your floor is, not your ceiling. Texas Democratic turnout rose even with marquee Republican races on the ballot, Kansas Republican turnout cratered (though Democrats still have work to do there), and Florida Democrats hemorrhaged voters to no-party affiliation — meaning you can see something real happening in Texas that simply isn't happening in Florida. His bottom line: Democrats will win more votes in November, and history says they win the midterms. The open question is whether they can take both chambers.
Then, filmmaker and author Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today, his new PBS documentary narrated by Rosanne Cash and featuring music from Bruce Springsteen, which traces the bond Guthrie forged with John Steinbeck during a campaign to ease the suffering of migrants in California — and argues those 1930s conflicts have unmistakable echoes in the present. Mitchell, a Depression-era obsessive who has written extensively about American politics since the 1930s, explains how he began seeing the connections between Guthrie and Steinbeck and why he refused to make a straight biopic: he wanted a film with current ramifications, which is why it closes with Springsteen's "The Ghost of Tom Joad" set against images of immigrants surrounded by federal agents and protesters holding signs quoting Guthrie. He and Chuck get into the story behind "This Land Is Your Land" (which wasn't the song's original title), the mechanics of securing the rights to the music and the story, his conversation with Tom Morello about the Springsteen song, and how seeing the migrant work camps firsthand fundamentally transformed Guthrie as an artist. Mitchell notes that Steinbeck was denounced as a communist for his trouble, that the majority of California's agricultural workforce eventually became Mexican and Filipino, and that Tom Joad was always meant to be a political character — which is exactly why he keeps getting resurrected.
The conversation broadens into a genuinely fun argument about protest music and whether great art requires great despair. Mitchell traces the lineage from Guthrie to Dylan (whom Guthrie mentored) to Springsteen, and notes that Guthrie has had a moment of renewed relevance over the past year as his music finds new audiences at No Kings and anti-ICE protests. He and Chuck walk through the iterations of protest music across the decades — The Clash and Blondie as deeply political acts, Springsteen's own evolution from apolitical rock star to a man now delivering angry speeches from the concert stage, and Jesse Welles finding real modern success in the form. They debate whether a fictional account can land harder than a true story, whether The Grapes of Wrath would even be a bestseller if published today, and what Tom Joad would make of contemporary America — with Mitchell arguing that the collapse of organized labor would genuinely shock both Joad and Guthrie. The episode closes on a pointed political note: Mitchell contends that Trump's corruption so far exceeds anything Nixon did that Nixon himself would be considered a lefty by modern standards. The film is streaming now on PBS.org and the PBS app.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 72 year struggle of the women’s suffrage movement before achieving the ratification of the 19th amendment, presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of Democratic Presidential hopefuls who will work the hardest to win the nomination and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.


Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:30 Don’t miss the Toddcast Special Report on the Lakers sale
06:30 Primary season is basically wrapped up after Florida
07:45 Raw primary turnout is a good tealeaf to read ahead of midterms
09:00 Democratic voters have been more enthusiastic w/ higher turnout
09:30 Alex Vindman loses Florida senate primary to Angie Nixon
10:30 Vindman ran his race like he was the presumptive nominee
11:00 Nixon just outworked Vindman with primary voters
11:30 Vindman hoarded his money for the general
12:30 This wasn’t a movement election, Nixon just performed
13:15 The importance of the African-American vote in Dem primaries
15:15 Need to live in Florida for more than a couple years to run successfully
15:45 Most of the carpetbagger candidates lost their primaries
16:30 Will be interesting to see what Vindman does with his war chest
18:00 Voters care if you are of/from their community
20:00 Vindman felt like first-term Trump resistance
21:00 It’s improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds
22:15 Florida Republican turnout was much higher than Dems
23:45 Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in majority black district
24:45 Cory Mills loses his primary
25:30 More Trump endorsed candidates lost their primaries
27:15 Trump backed candidates losing has become a trend
27:45 Trump is going out of his way to make it harder for Republicans
28:30 Trump’s relevance is melting away as his approval drops
31:45 Democratic electorate is expanding in most competitive states
32:15 Primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball
32:45 Turnout tells you where your floor is, not the ceiling
34:30 Democrats outperformed their primary edge in the general in 2018
36:00 Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots, compared to 54% in ‘18
37:00 Biggest jump in Dem turnout was in Alabama
37:45 Multiple states with Democrat turnout up double digits
39:45 Alabama’s governor race may be very competitive
42:30 Texas Dem turnout was higher even with marquee GOP races
43:45 Florida Dems lost voters to a no party affiliation
44:30 You can see something happening in Texas, not in Florida
45:30 Republican turnout was way down in Kansas
47:15 Dems probably still have more work to do in Kansas
48:00 Dems will win more votes in November,
48:45 History says Dems win the midterms, but can they win both chambers?
56:30 Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck ToddCast
58:00 Making an appearance in Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today
1:00:15 Chose the subject because he’s obsessed with the Depression era
1:01:15 Started seeing connections between Woody Guthrie and John Steinbeck
1:03:30 Was it difficult to get the rights for the music/story?
1:05:30 Creating protest songs like This Land Is Your Land
1:06:45 Discussing the Ghost of Tom Joad with Tom Morello
1:08:30 Tom Joad was an inspiration for Springsteen
1:09:30 Woody has always remained relevant. Songs have been covered
1:10:45 Tom Joad was meant to be political in Grapes of Wrath
1:12:30 Seeing migrant work camps deeply affected Woody Guthrie
1:14:15 Majority of agricultural workers became Mexicans & Philipinos
1:15:30 Steinbeck was denounced as a communist
1:16:15 “This land is your land” could be the national anthem
1:17:30 Do we need times of great despair to produce great art?
1:19:45 There have been iterations of protest music over the decades
1:20:45 Jesse Wells has found modern success with protest music
1:21:15 Bruce Springsteen & Tom Morello have produced new protest music
1:22:30 Groups like The Clash and Blondie were very political
1:23:15 Springsteen started as apolitical, then evolved to become political
1:25:00 Springsteen now gives angry speeches during his concerts
1:27:00 Can a fictional account land harder than a true story?
1:29:30 Is Guthrie to Dylan to Springsteen the lineage of protest music?
1:30:30 Guthrie was Bob Dylan’s mentor
1:32:00 Would Grapes of Wrath be a best seller if it came out today?
1:32:45 Film is available at PBS and the PBS app
1:33:00 What would Tom Joad feel if he was in modern America?
1:33:45 The fall of unions would shock Guthrie and Joad
1:34:45 Trump’s corruption so far exceeds anything done by Nixon
1:36:30 Nixon would be considered a “lefty” by modern standards
1:37:15 ToddCast Time Machine moved due to Lakers deep dive special
1:38:45 The movement for women’s suffrage took 72 years
1:39:15 Movement started in Seneca Falls, NY with the “Declaration of Sentiments”
1:40:15 100 people sign that declaration. 68 women and 32 men
1:41:15 Women could work for wages & have no control over the money
1:42:00 The movement fractured over disagreement about the 15th amendment
1:43:00 Susan B. Anthony votes illegally and is arrested in 1872
1:43:30 Women’s suffrage amendment keeps being introduced and failing for 40 years
1:44:15 The people who started the movement die, and new leaders emerge
1:45:30 In 1919 congress passes the 19th Amendment, need 36 states to ratify
1:46:00 Tennessee becomes the final state needed to ratify
1:46:30 Vote keeps ending up tied in the Tennessee statehouse
1:47:30 Ratification passes the house 50-46
1:48:45 Women couldn’t immediately vote everywhere after passage
1:50:00 Charlotte Woodward was only signatory that lived to see 19th amendment
1:50:45 Woodward lived long enough to see it, but was too old/sick to vote herself
1:51:45 A political movement often requires one generation to build it for the next one
1:52:45 After Trump, America will need a hard fought reform movement
1:54:30 America eventually gets it right, after exhausting other paths
1:55:30 ToddCast Top 5 candidates working the hardest to win
1:56:00 #1 AOC
1:58:15 #2 Pete Buttigieg
1:58:30 #3 Kamala Harris
1:58:45 #4 Mark Kelly + #5 Gavin Newsom
2:00:30 Jon Ossoff didn’t need to make his Natalie comment
2:02:30 Andy Beshear + Rahm Emmanuel don’t scare red state Dems
2:08:00 Ask Chuck
2:09:00 Can Dems actually bring accountability to Trump if they take congress?
2:16:30 Why were outsider Dem candidates so competitive in MI and WI?
2:20:15 Why can Trump do whatever he wants unchecked?
2:25:45 How should newsrooms cover the Natalie Harp story??
2:31:00 How do we hold politicians to account for upholding the constitution despite religion?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.