The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd reveals that Trump's planned visit to Beijing on May 14th and 15th may function as a de facto deadline for wrapping up the Iran war, noting that Trump wants to end the conflict more than the Iranian regime does — a devastating negotiating position — and that his own voters are being hit hardest by soaring gas prices since they drive more than the average American, while lawmakers in compact D.C. remain insulated from the pain. He unpacks the Gulf states' precarious calculus: the Saudis and Emiratis are terrified Trump will retreat and leave Iran with leverage, knowing that once the U.S. leaves the region it isn't coming back anytime soon, but they also have significant business leverage over Trump and his family that complicates every decision. He then pivots to what should be a triumphant moment for Democrats — they've flipped 30 Republican seats since Trump took office without losing a single one, won two government shutdowns, and are operating in the best political climate in years — but finds a party that feels leaderless, with Chuck Schumer at the center of the dysfunction. He reports that some Senate Democrats want Schumer to step aside, that he's become paranoid about leaks and tells different caucus members what they want to hear (a tactic known internally as "getting Schumed"), He closes with a sharp critique of Democrats in Virginia who are advocating for indefensible partisan redistricting — arguing that the Democratic brand still has lower favorability than both the GOP and MAGA brands, that the Democratic base is smaller than the Republican base and therefore needs moderates to win, and that deploying the same gerrymandering tactics they claim to oppose is exactly the kind of hypocrisy that keeps voters from trusting the party.
Then, Maryland Congressman Johnny Olszewski — the author of the Pardon Integrity Act, a proposed constitutional amendment that would give Congress the power to reject presidential pardons with a two-thirds supermajority vote — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a frank conversation about fixing a broken democracy and what Democrats should prioritize if they retake the House. Olszewski argues that the presidential pardon is the biggest loophole between democracy and autocracy, a power straight out of a monarchy that the founders failed to adequately check, and notes that Congress actually tried to curb pardon authority after Nixon but the effort stalled. His amendment, which is structured like a veto override and has already attracted Republican co-sponsor Don Bacon, would allow 20 House members and five senators to initiate a review process with 60 days to nullify a pardon. Olszewski is careful to spread the blame across parties — calling Trump's 1,600 pardons in 2025 alone "exceptionally egregious" but acknowledges that Biden’s preemptive pardons were a bad thing — and says nobody in Congress actually thinks the proposal is a bad idea.
The conversation broadens into a sobering assessment of congressional dysfunction and the state of American democracy. Olszewski describes the current Congress as one of the least productive ever, with both parties proposing unpassable messaging bills rather than legislating, and warns that partisan redistricting combined with partisan primaries creates a vicious cycle where the Republicans most willing to compromise are the ones most likely to lose their primaries. On Democratic strategy, Olszewski argues that if impeachable offenses exist they should be pursued but the party must focus on voters' needs, that Hakeem Jeffries should center his speakership on affordability if Democrats retake the House, and that Congress needs to come together to ban bipartisan gerrymandering. He insists that repairing democracy transcends partisan politics — the country needs people to believe in the institution of Congress again, and that requires restraints not just on this president but on all future ones.
Finally, Chuck proposes a major change to the NCAA basketball tournament… an expanded, 96 team playoff that would benefit both athletics and academics, celebrates the start of the MLB season, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
07:30 We may have a new deadline for Trump to wrap up the Iran war
08:00 Trump to visit Beijing on May 14th & 15th
09:15 Trump wants to end the war more than the Iranian regime
10:45 Trump voters drive more, gas prices will impact them more
12:00 Lawmakers are insulated from gas prices since D.C. is compact
13:15 Saudis and Emirates afraid Trump will retreat & leave Iran with leverage
14:15 Gulf states know that once the U.S. leaves they aren’t coming back soon
15:45 Saudis and Emirates have business leverage over Trump & his family
16:30 Trump will have to weigh business vs. political interests
17:30 Ground forces still being deployed to the region
18:30 Democrats in great political climate, but party feels rudderless & leaderless
19:15 Dems have flipped 30 Republican seats since Trump took office, lost none
20:00 Democrats have ushered in two government shutdowns & winning both
21:30 ICE’s abuses drove Dems to shutdown, the public largely supports them
22:15 Deploying ICE to airports is a dumb political move by Trump
23:45 Markwayne Mullin seems open to getting rid of ICE masking
25:45 The traveling public needs to be insulated from these political fights
27:00 Democrats should make the deal, but Chuck Schumer struggling to lead
27:45 Senate Democrats want Schumer to step aside as leader
30:30 Brian Schatz could be potential replacement, but expressed support for Schumer
33:00 Many longtime establishment senators have rallied behind Schumer
34:00 Schumer seems paranoid of leaks, and doesn’t share enough information
35:30 Confusion between senate Dems over whether there was deal to end shutdown
36:45 Schumer trying to appease everyone, telling them what they want to hear
37:30 The tactic is known as “Getting Schumed”
39:30 Schumer seems to have lost his fastball & is always looking over his shoulder
40:45 Schumer has become the stand-in for the establishment
42:15 Schumer can’t be seen as fighting the progressives and losing
44:30 Abigail Spanberger didn’t run as a partisan, forced into partisan redistricting
46:15 Partisan redistricting results in the election of partisan hacks
49:15 Dem base is smaller than GOP base, Dems need to win moderates
50:15 Dems in Virginia are advocating for indefensible partisan redistricting
51:15 Democratic brand still has lower favorability than GOP & MAGA
57:30 Rep. Johnny Olszewski joins the Chuck ToddCast
58:45 Pardon clause is biggest loophole between democracy & autocracy
1:00:30 Do you have more Republicans on board with the pardon amendment?
1:01:15 Pardon amendment is structured like a veto override
1:01:45 Trump’s pardons are exceptionally egregious
1:02:15 Biden’s preemptive pardons for family members were also terrible
1:04:00 Pardon power is a loophole right out of a monarchy
1:05:00 Congress wanted to curb pardon power after Nixon, but it stalled
1:06:45 We need people to believe in the institution of congress again
1:08:00 Should a pardon board be created similar to those at the state level?
1:10:00 What’s the strategy for getting the pardon amendment passed?
1:10:45 Nobody in congress thinks the proposal is a bad idea
1:13:00 We haven’t passed a meaningful amendment since JFK assassination
1:13:45 Repairing the democracy transcends partisan politics
1:15:00 What should Democrats prioritize if they retake the house majority?
1:15:45 If impeachable offenses exist, pursue them, but focus on voters’ needs
1:18:00 The current congress is one of the least productive ever
1:20:30 Both parties propose unpassable messaging bills
1:22:15 The minority is rarely treated well by the majority
1:24:30 Democrats can compromise on policy but not core values
1:25:30 Depending on the members, there may be space for compromise
1:26:00 R’s willing to compromise are most likely to lose their primary
1:26:45 Partisan redistricting + partisan elections leads to bad outcomes
1:30:00 Seriously concerned about certification of the 2028 election
1:31:00 Worried that Speaker Johnson will mess with the 2026 result?
1:33:30 Government has resources to make lives better if not for partisanship
1:36:00 Congress has passed almost no meaningful legislation
1:38:15 Congress needs to come together and ban bipartisan gerrymandering
1:40:30 No appetite in congress for uncapping size of house, talk of rank choice voting
1:41:45 If Hakeem Jeffries becomes speaker, he needs to focus on affordability
1:42:45 The numbers aren’t there to advance an impeachment inquiry
1:44:30 We need restraints on this president and future presidents
1:45:00 Thoughts on Wes Moore running for president?
1:46:00 What’s “electability” going to mean in 2028?
1:50:00 Chuck’s proposal for the NCAA basketball tournament
1:51:15 Big East is closer to the A10 than the other power conferences
1:52:15 People say they love cinderellas in the Final Four, then don’t watch
1:53:30 Applications surge to mid-majors that advanced far in tournament
1:55:30 Schools were able to get higher quality students & faculty
1:56:00 Success in athletics leads to success in academics
1:56:30 Expand the tournament to 96 teams
1:57:45 96 teams is still less than 1/3rd of potential schools
1:59:15 Expanded tournament would be a net positive for higher education
2:00:45 Four regions, 24 teams per region - 2 teams seeded 9-16
2:03:30 You get more basketball, and a better chance for midmajors
2:05:45 Everybody would make more money, & it’d be more fan friendly
2:08:00 The best teams would still advance
2:10:30 It’s opening day in Major League Baseball
2:12:30 Most intriguing MLB teams
2:15:45 MLB dark horses
2:17:00 Ask Chuck
2:17:15 Why didn’t you include 1858 Lincoln v Douglas in Top 5 Illinois campaigns?
2:19:15 If we don’t get oil from the Strait of Hormuz, why have our gas prices gone up?
2:21:00 How can we rebalance focus from national to local politics?
2:26:30 Was Kristi Noem’s DHS PR campaign in service of a presidential run?
2:30:00 Do you think Trump will invade Iran with boots on the ground?
2:32:45 Who is advising the president on potential outcomes, intel seems degraded?
2:39:45 Could Democrats benefit from putting forward a “contract with America”
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd reveals that Trump's planned visit to Beijing on May 14th and 15th may function as a de facto deadline for wrapping up the Iran war, noting that Trump wants to end the conflict more than the Iranian regime does — a devastating negotiating position — and that his own voters are being hit hardest by soaring gas prices since they drive more than the average American, while lawmakers in compact D.C. remain insulated from the pain. He unpacks the Gulf states' precarious calculus: the Saudis and Emiratis are terrified Trump will retreat and leave Iran with leverage, knowing that once the U.S. leaves the region it isn't coming back anytime soon, but they also have significant business leverage over Trump and his family that complicates every decision. He then pivots to what should be a triumphant moment for Democrats — they've flipped 30 Republican seats since Trump took office without losing a single one, won two government shutdowns, and are operating in the best political climate in years — but finds a party that feels leaderless, with Chuck Schumer at the center of the dysfunction. He reports that some Senate Democrats want Schumer to step aside, that he's become paranoid about leaks and tells different caucus members what they want to hear (a tactic known internally as "getting Schumed"), He closes with a sharp critique of Democrats in Virginia who are advocating for indefensible partisan redistricting — arguing that the Democratic brand still has lower favorability than both the GOP and MAGA brands, that the Democratic base is smaller than the Republican base and therefore needs moderates to win, and that deploying the same gerrymandering tactics they claim to oppose is exactly the kind of hypocrisy that keeps voters from trusting the party.
Then, Maryland Congressman Johnny Olszewski — the author of the Pardon Integrity Act, a proposed constitutional amendment that would give Congress the power to reject presidential pardons with a two-thirds supermajority vote — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a frank conversation about fixing a broken democracy and what Democrats should prioritize if they retake the House. Olszewski argues that the presidential pardon is the biggest loophole between democracy and autocracy, a power straight out of a monarchy that the founders failed to adequately check, and notes that Congress actually tried to curb pardon authority after Nixon but the effort stalled. His amendment, which is structured like a veto override and has already attracted Republican co-sponsor Don Bacon, would allow 20 House members and five senators to initiate a review process with 60 days to nullify a pardon. Olszewski is careful to spread the blame across parties — calling Trump's 1,600 pardons in 2025 alone "exceptionally egregious" but acknowledges that Biden’s preemptive pardons were a bad thing — and says nobody in Congress actually thinks the proposal is a bad idea.
The conversation broadens into a sobering assessment of congressional dysfunction and the state of American democracy. Olszewski describes the current Congress as one of the least productive ever, with both parties proposing unpassable messaging bills rather than legislating, and warns that partisan redistricting combined with partisan primaries creates a vicious cycle where the Republicans most willing to compromise are the ones most likely to lose their primaries. On Democratic strategy, Olszewski argues that if impeachable offenses exist they should be pursued but the party must focus on voters' needs, that Hakeem Jeffries should center his speakership on affordability if Democrats retake the House, and that Congress needs to come together to ban bipartisan gerrymandering. He insists that repairing democracy transcends partisan politics — the country needs people to believe in the institution of Congress again, and that requires restraints not just on this president but on all future ones.
Finally, Chuck proposes a major change to the NCAA basketball tournament… an expanded, 96 team playoff that would benefit both athletics and academics, celebrates the start of the MLB season, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
3:00 We may have a new deadline for Trump to wrap up the Iran war
3:30 Trump to visit Beijing on May 14th & 15th
4:45 Trump wants to end the war more than the Iranian regime
6:15 Trump voters drive more, gas prices will impact them more
7:30 Lawmakers are insulated from gas prices since D.C. is compact
8:45 Saudis and Emirates afraid Trump will retreat & leave Iran with leverage
9:45 Gulf states know that once the U.S. leaves they aren’t coming back soon
11:15 Saudis and Emirates have business leverage over Trump & his family
12:00 Trump will have to weigh business vs. political interests
13:00 Ground forces still being deployed to the region
14:00 Democrats in great political climate, but party feels rudderless & leaderless
14:45 Dems have flipped 30 Republican seats since Trump took office, lost none
15:30 Democrats have ushered in two government shutdowns & winning both
17:00 ICE’s abuses drove Dems to shutdown, the public largely supports them
17:45 Deploying ICE to airports is a dumb political move by Trump
19:15 Markwayne Mullin seems open to getting rid of ICE masking
21:15 The traveling public needs to be insulated from these political fights
22:30 Democrats should make the deal, but Chuck Schumer struggling to lead
23:15 Senate Democrats want Schumer to step aside as leader
26:00 Brian Schatz could be potential replacement, but expressed support for Schumer
28:30 Many longtime establishment senators have rallied behind Schumer
29:30 Schumer seems paranoid of leaks, and doesn’t share enough information
31:00 Confusion between senate Dems over whether there was deal to end shutdown
32:15 Schumer trying to appease everyone, telling them what they want to hear
33:00 The tactic is known as “Getting Schumed”
35:00 Schumer seems to have lost his fastball & is always looking over his shoulder
36:15 Schumer has become the stand-in for the establishment
37:45 Schumer can’t be seen as fighting the progressives and losing
40:00 Abigail Spanberger didn’t run as a partisan, forced into partisan redistricting
41:45 Partisan redistricting results in the election of partisan hacks
44:45 Dem base is smaller than GOP base, Dems need to win moderates
45:45 Dems in Virginia are advocating for indefensible partisan redistricting
46:45 Democratic brand still has lower favorability than GOP & MAGA
53:00 Chuck’s proposal for the NCAA basketball tournament
54:15 Big East is closer to the A10 than the other power conferences
55:15 People say they love cinderellas in the Final Four, then don’t watch
56:30 Applications surge to mid-majors that advanced far in tournament
58:30 Schools were able to get higher quality students & faculty
59:00 Success in athletics leads to success in academics
59:30 Expand the tournament to 96 teams
1:00:45 96 teams is still less than 1/3rd of potential schools
1:02:15 Expanded tournament would be a net positive for higher education
1:03:45 Four regions, 24 teams per region - 2 teams seeded 9-16
1:06:30 You get more basketball, and a better chance for midmajors
1:08:45 Everybody would make more money, & it’d be more fan friendly
1:11:00 The best teams would still advance
1:13:30 It’s opening day in Major League Baseball
1:15:30 Most intriguing MLB teams
1:18:45 MLB dark horses
1:20:00 Ask Chuck
1:20:15 Why didn’t you include 1858 Lincoln v Douglas in Top 5 Illinois campaigns?
1:22:15 If we don’t get oil from the Strait of Hormuz, why have our gas prices gone up?
1:24:00 How can we rebalance focus from national to local politics?
1:29:30 Was Kristi Noem’s DHS PR campaign in service of a presidential run?
1:33:00 Do you think Trump will invade Iran with boots on the ground?
1:35:45 Who is advising the president on potential outcomes, intel seems degraded?
1:42:45 Could Democrats benefit from putting forward a “contract with America”
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Maryland Congressman Johnny Olszewski — the author of the Pardon Integrity Act, a proposed constitutional amendment that would give Congress the power to reject presidential pardons with a two-thirds supermajority vote — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a frank conversation about fixing a broken democracy and what Democrats should prioritize if they retake the House. Olszewski argues that the presidential pardon is the biggest loophole between democracy and autocracy, a power straight out of a monarchy that the founders failed to adequately check, and notes that Congress actually tried to curb pardon authority after Nixon but the effort stalled. His amendment, which is structured like a veto override and has already attracted Republican co-sponsor Don Bacon, would allow 20 House members and five senators to initiate a review process with 60 days to nullify a pardon. Olszewski is careful to spread the blame across parties — calling Trump's 1,600 pardons in 2025 alone "exceptionally egregious" but acknowledges that Biden’s preemptive pardons were a bad thing — and says nobody in Congress actually thinks the proposal is a bad idea.
The conversation broadens into a sobering assessment of congressional dysfunction and the state of American democracy. Olszewski describes the current Congress as one of the least productive ever, with both parties proposing unpassable messaging bills rather than legislating, and warns that partisan redistricting combined with partisan primaries creates a vicious cycle where the Republicans most willing to compromise are the ones most likely to lose their primaries. On Democratic strategy, Olszewski argues that if impeachable offenses exist they should be pursued but the party must focus on voters' needs, that Hakeem Jeffries should center his speakership on affordability if Democrats retake the House, and that Congress needs to come together to ban bipartisan gerrymandering. He insists that repairing democracy transcends partisan politics — the country needs people to believe in the institution of Congress again, and that requires restraints not just on this president but on all future ones.
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Rep. Johnny Olszewski joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:15 Pardon clause is biggest loophole between democracy & autocracy
03:00 Do you have more Republicans on board with the pardon amendment?
03:45 Pardon amendment is structured like a veto override
04:15 Trump’s pardons are exceptionally egregious
04:45 Biden’s preemptive pardons for family members were also terrible
06:30 Pardon power is a loophole right out of a monarchy
07:30 Congress wanted to curb pardon power after Nixon, but it stalled
09:15 We need people to believe in the institution of congress again
10:30 Should a pardon board be created similar to those at the state level?
12:30 What’s the strategy for getting the pardon amendment passed?
13:15 Nobody in congress thinks the proposal is a bad idea
15:30 We haven’t passed a meaningful amendment since JFK assassination
16:15 Repairing the democracy transcends partisan politics
17:30 What should Democrats prioritize if they retake the house majority?
18:15 If impeachable offenses exist, pursue them, but focus on voters’ needs
20:30 The current congress is one of the least productive ever
23:00 Both parties propose unpassable messaging bills
24:45 The minority is rarely treated well by the majority
27:00 Democrats can compromise on policy but not core values
28:00 Depending on the members, there may be space for compromise
28:30 R’s willing to compromise are most likely to lose their primary
29:15 Partisan redistricting + partisan elections leads to bad outcomes
32:30 Seriously concerned about certification of the 2028 election
33:30 Worried that Speaker Johnson will mess with the 2026 result?
36:00 Government has resources to make lives better if not for partisanship
38:30 Congress has passed almost no meaningful legislation
40:45 Congress needs to come together and ban bipartisan gerrymandering
43:00 No appetite in congress for uncapping size of house, talk of rank choice voting
44:15 If Hakeem Jeffries becomes speaker, he needs to focus on affordability
45:15 The numbers aren’t there to advance an impeachment inquiry
47:00 We need restraints on this president and future presidents
47:30 Thoughts on Wes Moore running for president?
48:30 What’s “electability” going to mean in 2028?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens by announcing the launch of "Dynastic," his new sports history podcast with J.A. Adande, before turning to what may be the most consequential inflection point of the Iran war: Trump is running out of patience and actively searching for an off-ramp, but every path forward carries serious risks and his definition of victory keeps shifting by the day. Chuck warns that the U.S. continues to send more troops for potential escalation even as the military acknowledges it has achieved its strategic objectives but can only do so much — the regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly, meaning the war has now become fundamentally about perception rather than territory. He flags General Mattis's warning that Iran will claim control over the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. retreats, that Gulf states are already hedging their security partnerships and leaning toward China, and that standing with America has become politically toxic in allied countries — a direct consequence of Trump choosing to weaken alliances before launching a war that required them. At home, the picture is equally grim: support for Trump among independents has cratered into the low 20s, the MAGA brand has become more toxic with voters than the generic Republican brand, nobody in Trump's orbit wants to own this war, and Chuck warns that while Trump has always bounced back from political crises, this time may be different — the war could be the death knell for the MAGA movement itself, because Trump hollowed out the expertise around him, surrounded himself with sycophants, and now finds both sides stuck in a conflict where retreat looks like defeat and escalation looks like madness.
Then, Warwick Sabin — president and CEO of Deep South Today, the nonprofit news network that includes the Pulitzer Prize-winning Mississippi Today, New Orleans' Verite News, and Lafayette's The Current — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss what may be the most promising model for saving local journalism in America. Sabin, a former three-term Arkansas state legislator and publisher of the Oxford American magazine, explains how he's building a network of nonprofit newsrooms across the Deep South from scratch, starting with Mississippi Today — the first nonprofit newsroom in Mississippi, now the largest in the state — and expanding into Louisiana and soon Arkansas. He describes the wholesale implosion of the old newspaper model, using the Jackson Clarion-Ledger's decline as a case study, and argues that the nonprofit approach has a critical advantage: starting fresh means avoiding the crushing legacy costs that buried traditional papers, and all revenue gets reinvested directly into the news product. They make the case that service journalism — covering schools, local government, youth sports — is what creates the trust and audience that makes the "sexy" investigative work possible, pointing to the fact that local journalists in his network helped exonerate a man on death row in Mississippi.
The conversation turns to what makes local journalism viable and essential in 2026 and beyond. Sabin argues that human connection to journalists will be the defining differentiator in the age of AI — people won't trust reporters who aren't part of their local community — while acknowledging that AI tools can make reporting dramatically more efficient. He discusses using local and youth sports as a community bonding agent in an era where it's one of the few areas where communities can avoid politics, notes that Mississippi produces terrific writers who need platforms, and emphasizes that having video and audio components is now critical for any news operation. They explore the potential for rebuilding a national network of nonprofit newspapers, discuss which communities are ripe for expansion and make the case that local journalism should be treated as a civic institution deserving of public-private partnership. Sabin's model is free to access, civic-minded, and designed to help citizens survive and thrive in their communities — exactly what Local News Day on April 9th is designed to champion.
Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose reelection in 2026, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
00:45 Launching the "Dynastic" sports history podcast with J.A. Adande!
09:00 Trump is running out of patience, looking for off-ramp in Iran
10:15 Trump’s definition of victory keeps changing
11:00 Every path forward in Iran carries risks
11:30 We continue to send more troops for potential escalation
12:45 Iran will have a say over who can travel through the Strait of Hormuz
13:15 Gen. Mattis believes Iran will claim control over Strait if U.S. retreats
16:00 The military has had strategic victory, but can only do so much
16:45 Regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly
18:00 Both sides are stuck, so now the war becomes about perception
18:45 Gulf states could hedge their security partnerships, lean to China
19:30 Trump hollowed out expertise & surrounded himself with sycophants
20:30 Nobody in Trump’s orbit want to own this war
21:30 Standing with the U.S. is politically unpopular in allied countries
23:00 Trump chose to weaken America’s alliance prior to launching war
23:45 War is increasingly unpopular at home
25:00 Support for Trump among independents is in the low 20’s
26:30 The MAGA brand is now more toxic with voters than Republican brand
27:30 War could be the death knell for the MAGA brand
28:45 Trump has always bounced back, but he may not be able to this time
37:00 Warwick Sabin joins the Chuck ToddCast
38:30 Creating the first nonprofit newsroom in Mississippi
41:30 What went wrong with the Jackson Clarion-Ledger?
43:30 There’s been a wholesale implosion of the old newspaper model
45:00 Potential for rebuilding a national network of newspapers?
46:15 In small markets, newspapers have to be hyper efficient
48:15 Service journalism is what creates the opportunity for “sexy” journalism
49:15 Local journalists exonerated a man on death row in Mississippi
50:15 Using local and youth sports as a community bond
52:00 Local sports is the one area where communities can avoid politics
53:30 Mississippi produces terrific writers
54:30 Having a video/audio component for reporting is critical
56:00 Human connection to journalists will be important in age of AI
58:00 People won’t trust journalists that aren’t part of their local community
59:45 AI tools can make reporting easier and more efficient
1:01:15 What does a community need to have to become part of your network?
1:02:30 Arkansas Democrat Gazette weathered the storm better than most
1:04:30 Arkansas is in need of a local news network
1:05:45 Bill Clinton’s election kept Walmart’s headquarters in Arkansas
1:08:00 Northwest Arkansas produced some of America’s biggest companies
1:11:00 How much do you factor in local resources when launching a new paper?
1:13:00 What other places have you looked at to expand the network?
1:15:00 Model is doing civic minded journalism that is free to access
1:16:00 Starting from scratch, avoiding legacy costs is a huge boon
1:18:30 All the revenue they generate gets invested back into the news product
1:20:00 Newspapers & local journalism are a civic institution
1:22:00 Local journalism should be a public/private partnership
1:23:00 It is incredibly difficult to deliver straight news in smaller communities
1:23:45 What do you hope to get out of Local News Day?
1:26:30 Local journalism can help citizens survive and thrive in their communities
1:27:30 Is print dead, or is there a viable path for it?
1:29:15 What has the gutting of local & public radio meant for Mississippi?
1:33:00 ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose in 2026
1:34:15 #1 John Cornyn
1:35:45 #2 Dan McKee
1:38:00 #3 Bill Cassidy
1:40:30 #4 Susan Collins
1:44:30 #5 Pete Ricketts
1:45:45 Ask Chuck
1:46:00 John Hickenlooper is out. Has another state had so many 1-term dropouts?
1:50:15 Would Hilary Clinton have won the presidency if the nominee in a different year?
1:54:00 Any pop culture quotes that you love that carry weight politically?
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Chuck Todd opens by announcing the launch of "Dynastic," his new sports history podcast with J.A. Adande, before turning to what may be the most consequential inflection point of the Iran war: Trump is running out of patience and actively searching for an off-ramp, but every path forward carries serious risks and his definition of victory keeps shifting by the day. Chuck warns that the U.S. continues to send more troops for potential escalation even as the military acknowledges it has achieved its strategic objectives but can only do so much — the regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly, meaning the war has now become fundamentally about perception rather than territory. He flags General Mattis's warning that Iran will claim control over the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. retreats, that Gulf states are already hedging their security partnerships and leaning toward China, and that standing with America has become politically toxic in allied countries — a direct consequence of Trump choosing to weaken alliances before launching a war that required them. At home, the picture is equally grim: support for Trump among independents has cratered into the low 20s, the MAGA brand has become more toxic with voters than the generic Republican brand, nobody in Trump's orbit wants to own this war, and Chuck warns that while Trump has always bounced back from political crises, this time may be different — the war could be the death knell for the MAGA movement itself, because Trump hollowed out the expertise around him, surrounded himself with sycophants, and now finds both sides stuck in a conflict where retreat looks like defeat and escalation looks like madness.
Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose reelection in 2026, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
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Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
00:45 Launching the "Dynastic" sports history podcast with J.A. Adande!
09:00 Trump is running out of patience, looking for off-ramp in Iran
10:15 Trump’s definition of victory keeps changing
11:00 Every path forward in Iran carries risks
11:30 We continue to send more troops for potential escalation
12:45 Iran will have a say over who can travel through the Strait of Hormuz
13:15 Gen. Mattis believes Iran will claim control over Strait if U.S. retreats
16:00 The military has had strategic victory, but can only do so much
16:45 Regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly
18:00 Both sides are stuck, so now the war becomes about perception
18:45 Gulf states could hedge their security partnerships, lean to China
19:30 Trump hollowed out expertise & surrounded himself with sycophants
20:30 Nobody in Trump’s orbit want to own this war
21:30 Standing with the U.S. is politically unpopular in allied countries
23:00 Trump chose to weaken America’s alliance prior to launching war
23:45 War is increasingly unpopular at home
25:00 Support for Trump among independents is in the low 20’s
26:30 The MAGA brand is now more toxic with voters than Republican brand
27:30 War could be the death knell for the MAGA brand
28:45 Trump has always bounced back, but he may not be able to this time
35:30 ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose in 2026
36:45 #1 John Cornyn
38:15 #2 Dan McKee
40:30 #3 Bill Cassidy
43:00 #4 Susan Collins
47:00 #5 Pete Ricketts
48:15 Ask Chuck
48:30 John Hickenlooper is out. Has another state had so many 1-term dropouts?
52:45 Would Hilary Clinton have won the presidency if the nominee in a different year?
56:30 Any pop culture quotes that you love that carry weight politically?
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