The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd opens by correcting Jon Stewart, who made him a punchline Monday — before turning to the circus at Tuesday's Jack Smith hearing. Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt, a potential 2028 VP pick, thought he'd caught Smith perjuring himself with text messages placing him at an Atlanta Hawks game the day after the Fani Willis affair broke. Smith was at an Iowa Hawkeyes women's game in Maryland. Klobuchar spotted the mix-up, Schmitt never backtracked, and Chuck's point is the deeper one: Schmitt decided the conclusion before the evidence and displayed exactly the confirmation bias he was accusing Smith of. If evidence can't change your worldview, what's the point of evidence? The second half is a substantive argument that the voucher experiment has hit a dead end — it never moved low-income kids into private schools, it mostly subsidized families already paying tuition, and school funding may be a real reason Republicans lose in November. He also explains why focusing on improving pre-k through 3rd grade education should be a national project.
Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 2026 midterm results that will most impact the 2028 race and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
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Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:45 Jon Stewart, NBC, and setting the record straight
03:15 Which Republicans will actually campaign with Trump
09:15 The Schmitt-Jack Smith hearing debacle
13:15 Confirmation bias and what evidence is even for
16:15 What Jack Smith was actually investigating
22:45 Public education as an American advantage
25:30 The voucher experiment and whether competition worked
30:00 What Mississippi got right, and why pre-K through 3rd grade is everything
40:45 Vouchers hit a dead end — and the political price
47:30 Alabama's TikTok settlement and the limits of blaming teachers
00:57:45 ToddCast Top 5 2026 results that will most impact 2028
00:58:00 #5 Does an independent break through?
01:00:15 #4 California’s wealth tax
01:01:45 #3 Texas senate
01:03:15 #2 Texas governor
01:04:45 #1 Michigan senate
01:06:45 Ask Chuck
01:07:00 How would a mega-tsunami election affect committee assignments?
01:11:45 Is there a value in running uphill races beyond winning?
01:16:15 Will Republicans act with more independence from Trump after midterms?
01:18:45 If enough independents won and didn’t caucus, who would have control?
01:23:30 Favorite sports + political movies? Should Trump impeachment have been broader?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss The Elections That Changed the World, out September 22nd, which she wrote with David Fisher. The fifteen elections she chose stretch from Julius Caesar — who ran partly because he was deeply indebted and didn't want to be prosecuted — to Nelson Mandela, and "election" is defined loosely enough to include Pope John XXIII's selection and Martin Luther King's informal elevation to lead the Montgomery bus boycott. The through-line is money: wealth shaped nearly every one of them, from the Magna Carta to Caesar effectively buying votes. Bash's larger point is that you rarely know in the moment how consequential a vote will be — Germany in 1932 was a revolution disguised as an election. Plus her five favorite 2026 races, why Michigan is fascinating, and what it's like covering a second-term Trump White House.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Dana Bash joins The Chuck ToddCast
01:00 Why write "The Elections That Changed the World"?
05:45 Caesar, Hitler, and the cautionary tales
08:00 Wealth as the through-line from the Magna Carta forward
16:30 Sun Yat-Sen and the bridge between imperial China and Mao
22:30 Pope John XXIII and modernizing the Catholic Church
26:30 Kasturba Gandhi, Golda Meir, and women leading democracies
33:45 Mandela's election and the limits of judging history in real time
45:00 2026 races to watch: Michigan, Lawler, Iowa, Texas
59:30 Covering a second-term Trump White House
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens by correcting Jon Stewart, who made him a punchline Monday — before turning to the circus at Tuesday's Jack Smith hearing. Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt, a potential 2028 VP pick, thought he'd caught Smith perjuring himself with text messages placing him at an Atlanta Hawks game the day after the Fani Willis affair broke. Smith was at an Iowa Hawkeyes women's game in Maryland. Klobuchar spotted the mix-up, Schmitt never backtracked, and Chuck's point is the deeper one: Schmitt decided the conclusion before the evidence and displayed exactly the confirmation bias he was accusing Smith of. If evidence can't change your worldview, what's the point of evidence? The second half is a substantive argument that the voucher experiment has hit a dead end — it never moved low-income kids into private schools, it mostly subsidized families already paying tuition, and school funding may be a real reason Republicans lose in November. He also explains why focusing on improving pre-k through 3rd grade education should be a national project.
Then, CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss The Elections That Changed the World, out September 22nd, which she wrote with David Fisher. The fifteen elections she chose stretch from Julius Caesar — who ran partly because he was deeply indebted and didn't want to be prosecuted — to Nelson Mandela, and "election" is defined loosely enough to include Pope John XXIII's selection and Martin Luther King's informal elevation to lead the Montgomery bus boycott. The through-line is money: wealth shaped nearly every one of them, from the Magna Carta to Caesar effectively buying votes. Bash's larger point is that you rarely know in the moment how consequential a vote will be — Germany in 1932 was a revolution disguised as an election. Plus her five favorite 2026 races, why Michigan is fascinating, and what it's like covering a second-term Trump White House.
Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 2026 midterm results that will most impact the 2028 race and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD
http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:45 Jon Stewart, NBC, and setting the record straight
03:15 Which Republicans will actually campaign with Trump
09:15 The Schmitt-Jack Smith hearing debacle
13:15 Confirmation bias and what evidence is even for
16:15 What Jack Smith was actually investigating
22:45 Public education as an American advantage
25:30 The voucher experiment and whether competition worked
30:00 What Mississippi got right, and why pre-K through 3rd grade is everything
40:45 Vouchers hit a dead end — and the political price
47:30 Alabama's TikTok settlement and the limits of blaming teachers
58:45 Dana Bash joins The Chuck ToddCast
59:45 Why write "The Elections That Changed the World"
1:44:30 Caesar, Hitler, and the cautionary tales
1:46:45 Wealth as the through-line from the Magna Carta forward
1:15:15 Sun Yat-Sen and the bridge between imperial China and Mao
1:21:15 Pope John XXIII and modernizing the Catholic Church
1:25:15 Kasturba Gandhi, Golda Meir, and women leading democracies
1:32:30 Mandela's election and the limits of judging history in real time
1:43:45 2026 races to watch: Michigan, Lawler, Iowa, Texas
1:58:15 Covering a second-term Trump White House
2:04:45 ToddCast Top 5 2026 results that will most impact 2028
2:05:00 #5 Does an independent break through?
2:09:30 #4 California’s wealth tax
2:08:45 #3 Texas senate
2:10:15 #2 Texas governor
2:11:45 #1 Michigan senate
2:13:45 Ask Chuck
2:14:00 How would a mega-tsunami election affect committee assignments?
2:18:45 Is there a value in running uphill races beyond winning?
2:23:15 Will Republicans act with more independence from Trump after midterms?
2:25:45 If enough independents won and didn’t caucus, who would have control?
2:30:30 Favorite sports + political movies? Should Trump impeachment have been broader?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thirty-five days out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on a president playing the hits: Trump spent the weekend at a football game and a golf tournament, then announced his campaign tour kicks off in Durant, Oklahoma and Mobile, Alabama — the site of his first mega-rally in 2015 — rather than anywhere control of Congress is being decided. The more consequential move was rejecting Iran's seven-day truce offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an exit ramp every Republican in a tough race is publicly begging for; Brent jumped above $107 on the news. That sets up the episode's best segment: a truth-serum run through every competitive Senate race asking which Republicans would actually stand next to Trump — and why the answer across Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska is no, because the damage there is his own tariff and diesel policy. Plus the Senate Leadership Fund's $118 million bet on Ken Paxton, a candidate who's spent under $1 million himself; Fetterman's "lifelong Republican" slip; why Murkowski's calculus runs entirely through Mary Peltola; and why Chuck reads AOC's upstate tour as a Senate campaign, not a presidential one.

Timeline:
00:00 Trump kicks off in Oklahoma and Mobile — and rejects the Iran exit ramp
08:00 Truth serum: which Republicans would actually do a rally with Trump?
18:00 The $118M Paxton bet, and whether McConnell would have swerved
26:00 Triage: walking from Georgia and North Carolina, holding Maine and Ohio
30:00 Fetterman's slip, Murkowski's calculus & when party switches happen
40:00 AOC's real 2028 decision — and why Chuck reads it as the Senate
48:00 The Nats finish 77-85; why reloading is harder than it looks
54:00 The Packers, an atrocious offensive line & a pick headed to the Jets
1:03:00 Kalshi sponsorship, the 62% sweep question & Collins underpriced
1:12:00 Do your own research — and World Series wishes
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Chuck Todd zeroes in on a president who has become the entire election: Trump spent the weekend at a football game and a golf tournament while Americans struggle, announced he'd rejected an Iran deal as though he holds all the cards, and now sits at 37% approval in a new WSJ poll — the lowest for any president heading into a midterm in their polling since 1990, with 11% of his own 2024 voters saying they regret the vote. Chuck is appalled by a cultish government-produced TV ad made with taxpayer dollars, notes Republicans don't want Trump campaigning for them (he's being routed to Oklahoma and Alabama), and points to Charlie Cook's framing that this isn't a blue wave so much as a red undertow. His race of the cycle: Gina Hinojosa in Texas, running as a populist rather than a socialist, airing an ad with a former January 6th defendant, and now leading Abbott in a Marist poll.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Woodrow Wilson suffering a debilitating stroke, the efforts to cover it up by his White House and the eerie parallels we’ve seen in the behavior of both the Biden and Trump staffers. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in football.
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Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
04:45 Trump as the focal point of the entire election
06:30 The Iran war drags on while Trump seems disinterested
14:45 Trump hits 37% in the new WSJ poll
16:15 The cultish taxpayer-funded TV ad
21:15 Republicans who don't want Trump campaigning for them
26:15 Charlie Cook's red undertow, and a GOP retreat that skipped Texas
31:45 Gina Hinojosa is running the smartest campaign in red America
40:45 Why the Senate and governor maps look nothing alike
45:00 Tuberville's furries floor speech and Beshear's opportunity
57:30 ToddCast Time Machine - October 2nd, 1919
58:45 Wilson was trying to ratify the League of Nations
1:00:00 Wilson collapsed, suffered a massive stroke
1:02:15 Wilson’s doctor wouldn’t declare him incapacitated
1:03:45 Nobody was able to remove Wilson
1:05:30 States ratified the 25th amendment
1:07:15 Aides for Wilson and Trump lacked candor
1:09:00 We’re seeing boxy bulges under Trump’s pants with no explanation
1:10:00 Trump’s doctors say he’s fine, but impossible to know
1:13:15 Congress should create independent body for 25th amendment
1:16:30 Ask Chuck
1:16:45 Could Democrats use vanity plays to bargain with Trump?
1:21:15 Could voters challenge use of Missouri’s new map after midterms?
1:26:00 Did Trump deliberately ban media to coincide with meeting with Xi?
1:28:15 What role do you expect Obama to play in the midterms?
1:31:15 NFL/College football recap
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.