The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd opens the episode with a blunt assessment: it's starting to feel like the beginning of the end of Donald Trump's presidency. From an open-ended war in Iran to a cratering stock market, Trump finds himself sinking deeper into what Chuck calls "presidential quicksand," with every show of strength only revealing more weakness. Chuck breaks down the staggering early costs of the Iran conflict — over 1,000 casualties and $6 billion spent in just one week — and asks the question no one in Washington seems willing to answer: does anyone actually have an exit strategy? On the economy, the latest jobs report is sending ominous signals. With slow growth, rising prices, and tariff uncertainty dominating the economic discourse, Chuck makes the case that the swing voters who put Trump back in the White House for his perceived economic expertise are the first ones who'll walk away when their wallets take the hit. Corporate America is also starting to find its backbone. From Anthropic refusing to strip safety guardrails to Netflix walking away from a bad deal, Chuck sees a telling pattern: companies are pushing back on a president who looks weak.
Legendary documentarian Ken Burns joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sweeping conversation about American history, the craft of telling it honestly, and why historical perspective has never mattered more than it does right now. Burns addresses head-on the criticism that his work is "woke," arguing that his documentaries have a perspective but it's not left versus right — he wants to call balls and strikes, and the truth shouldn't be something people fear. He offers a striking defense of nuance, noting that the Republican Party has been the most successful political party on earth and that his life's work has been about making films about both the U.S. and "us" — the complicated, contradictory people who built and continue to shape the country. Burns discusses his latest project on the American Revolution, which he insists he didn't intentionally time to the 250th anniversary, and reveals he's also working on a film about Reconstruction and potentially a documentary on the Cold War. He walks through his rigorous process for evaluating source material, the challenge of needing great actors to bring the founders to life, and how those founders were obsessively focused on virtue — creating something genuinely new in human history while writing a Constitution brilliant enough to endure centuries but unable to foresee Congress voluntarily abdicating its own power.
The conversation takes a fascinating philosophical turn as they explore the recurring patterns of American history: the manufacture of fear as a tool for authoritarians, the repeated failure of using government to force social change, and the way religion has been wielded as a cudgel by governments despite the founders being explicitly against a national religion. Burns offers a revealing window into his methodology, explaining that you need 25 to 30 years of distance before you can responsibly cover a historical subject, and that Trump's presidency has effectively constipated the scholarship on the Obama era because the two will be forever intertwined in history. He notes that views on Vietnam's legacy shifted vastly over decades, and that the passage of time is essential for triangulating toward truth — take historians for their knowledge, not always their perspective.
Finally, Chuck takes an illuminating detour into his "Time Machine" segment, tracing how communication technology has permanently reshaped the American presidency, from Alexander Graham Bell’s first phone call, to FDR's fireside chats, all the way to Trump’s constant social media use. Plus, Chuck answers listener questions touching subjects like the potential similarities between Pearl Harbor and Trump’s Iran strikes, NIL in college sports, what's really going on with Democrats’ reactions to politicians like John Fetterman straying from the party line, and James Talarico’s bid for Congress.

Go to https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
7:00 Trump's presidency entering "presidential quicksand"
9:00 Iran war: an expensive political disaster
11:00 Trump has no strategic endgame in Iran
12:00 Why regime change in Iran won't work
15:00 Trump's market collapse & terrible jobs report
19:00 Swing voters abandoning Trump
21:00 Supreme Court striking down Trump's tariffs
23:00 Corporate America pushing back: Anthropic, Netflix, small businesses
32:00 Republican label becoming a liability
36:00 Montana: Daines retirement stuns state
39:00 Trump no longer an outsider, now seen as the establishment
43:00 Biden/Afghanistan parallel: one bad moment can permanently crater approval ratings
57:00 Ken Burns joins the Chuck ToddCast
58:45 Having historical perspective is incredibly important
1:00:30 American Revolution one of the most important events in history
1:01:00 Criticism of his documentary as being "woke"
1:02:15 The Republican party has been the most successful party on earth
1:04:00 Ken's documentaries have a perspective, but it's not left vs. right
1:07:00 The author's politics matter when consuming historical books
1:08:15 People want historical events to match their worldview
1:09:30 The process for evaluating source material for his documentaries
1:11:45 The founders were incredibly focused on virtue
1:13:15 The American experiment was something new in human history
1:15:30 Constitution is a brilliant document, didn't foresee congress abdicating
1:21:00 The manufacture of fear empowers authoritarians
1:25:30 Using government as instrument of social change
1:26:45 Prohibition was going to happen with or without the Spanish Flu pandemic
1:29:30 Forcing social change via government was never going to work well
1:31:30 We don't teach the history of religion out of fear
1:41:00 Founders were explicitly against a national religion
1:44:00 The story of America's progress & transformation is incredible
1:45:15 Most recent past events that Burns is comfortable covering?
1:47:15 Trump & Obama will be intertwined in history
1:48:30 Views on the legacy of Vietnam changed vastly over the decades
1:51:15 It's good to take historians for their knowledge, not always their perspective
1:52:15 Potentially producing a documentary about the Cold War
1:54:45 We've had 3 straight one-term presidents, never happened in 20th century
1:56:15 After the USSR dissolved, Republicans made Bill Clinton the enemy
1:58:45 Race is a part of telling every historical American story
2:00:00 Killer Angels is Ken's favorite historical fiction
2:03:15 How should we celebrate America 250?
2:05:15 Yellowstone covers many facets of the American experience
2:06:45 Simplifying complex history is the behavior of authoritarians
2:09:00 Thoroughly enjoy doing the hard work of making documentaries
2:12:00 Time Machine: how technology transformed the presidency
2:14:00 Lincoln's telegraph, FDR's fireside chats, and the evolution of presidential communication
2:24:00 How communication technology reshaped corporate leadership
2:26:00 Technology's role in weakening Congress
2:28:00 Ask Chuck: Iran vs. Pearl Harbor comparison
2:30:00 Trump's inane college football roundtable
2:46:00 Fetterman & Sinema: Democrats' narrowing ideology
2:51:00 Question about changing county borders
2:55:00 Talarico's congressional bid
2:57:00 World Baseball Classic
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Legendary documentarian Ken Burns joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sweeping conversation about American history, the craft of telling it honestly, and why historical perspective has never mattered more than it does right now. Burns addresses head-on the criticism that his work is "woke," arguing that his documentaries have a perspective but it's not left versus right — he wants to call balls and strikes, and the truth shouldn't be something people fear. He offers a striking defense of nuance, noting that the Republican Party has been the most successful political party on earth and that his life's work has been about making films about both the U.S. and "us" — the complicated, contradictory people who built and continue to shape the country. Burns discusses his latest project on the American Revolution, which he insists he didn't intentionally time to the 250th anniversary, and reveals he's also working on a film about Reconstruction and potentially a documentary on the Cold War. He walks through his rigorous process for evaluating source material, the challenge of needing great actors to bring the founders to life, and how those founders were obsessively focused on virtue — creating something genuinely new in human history while writing a Constitution brilliant enough to endure centuries but unable to foresee Congress voluntarily abdicating its own power.
The conversation takes a fascinating philosophical turn as they explore the recurring patterns of American history: the manufacture of fear as a tool for authoritarians, the repeated failure of using government to force social change, and the way religion has been wielded as a cudgel by governments despite the founders being explicitly against a national religion. Burns offers a revealing window into his methodology, explaining that you need 25 to 30 years of distance before you can responsibly cover a historical subject, and that Trump's presidency has effectively constipated the scholarship on the Obama era because the two will be forever intertwined in history. He notes that views on Vietnam's legacy shifted vastly over decades, and that the passage of time is essential for triangulating toward truth — take historians for their knowledge, not always their perspective.

Go to https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Ken Burns joins the Chuck ToddCast
00:45 No shortage of American history topics to cover
01:45 Having historical perspective is incredibly important
03:30 American revolution one of the most important events in history
04:00 Criticism of his documentary as being “woke”, fearful of the truth
05:15 The Republican party has been the most successful party on earth
06:15 Making films about the U.S. and also “Us”
07:00 Ken’s documentaries have a perspective, but it’s not left vs. right
07:45 You want to call “ball & strikes”
09:15 Making a film about the Reconstruction period
10:00 The author’s politics matter when consuming historical books
11:15 People want historical events to match their worldview
12:30 The process for evaluating source material for his documentaries
14:45 The founders were incredibly focused on virtue
15:30 Needed great actors to bring the founders to life
16:15 The American experiment was something new in human history
17:00 Didn’t mean to time “The American Revolution” release on 250th
18:30 Constitution is a brilliant document, didn’t foresee congress abdicating
20:30 The manufacture of fear empowers authoritarians
22:30 There’s so many historical items with which to tell the story
25:00 Using government as instrument of social change
26:15 Prohibition was going to happen with or without the Spanish Flu pandemic
29:00 Forcing social change via government was never going to work well
31:00 We don’t teach the history of religion out of fear
32:45 Deism became the religious choice of many of the founders
33:15 Religion has been used as a cudgel by governments
34:00 Founders were explicitly against a national religion
37:00 The story of America’s progress & transformation is incredible
38:15 What’s the most recent past events that you’re comfortable covering?
39:15 Trump’s presidency has constipated the scholarship on Obama era
40:15 Trump & Obama will be intertwined in history
41:00 You need 25-30 years to pass before covering a historical subject
41:30 Views on the legacy of Vietnam changed vastly over the decades
42:30 Using the passage of time to triangulate
44:15 It’s good to take historians for their knowledge, not always their perspective
45:15 Potentially producing a documentary about the Cold War
47:45 We’ve had 3 straight one-term presidents, never happened in 20th century
49:15 After the USSR dissolved, Republicans made Bill Clinton the enemy
50:30 When will you tackle your first 21st century event?
51:45 Race is a part of telling every historical American story
53:00 Killer Angels is Ken’s favorite historical fiction
54:00 Any interest in producing dramatized history?
55:00 God is the greatest dramatist
56:15 How should we celebrate America 250?
57:00 Washington was incredibly rich and risked it all
58:15 Yellowstone covers many facets of the American experience
59:45 Simplifying complex history is the behavior of authoritarians
1:02:00 Thoroughly enjoy doing the hard work of making documentaries
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens the episode with a blunt assessment: it's starting to feel like the beginning of the end of Donald Trump's presidency. From an open-ended war in Iran to a cratering stock market, Trump finds himself sinking deeper into what Chuck calls "presidential quicksand," with every show of strength only revealing more weakness. Chuck breaks down the staggering early costs of the Iran conflict — over 1,000 casualties and $6 billion spent in just one week — and asks the question no one in Washington seems willing to answer: does anyone actually have an exit strategy? On the economy, the latest jobs report is sending ominous signals. With slow growth, rising prices, and tariff uncertainty dominating the economic discourse, Chuck makes the case that the swing voters who put Trump back in the White House for his perceived economic expertise are the first ones who'll walk away when their wallets take the hit. Corporate America is also starting to find its backbone. From Anthropic refusing to strip safety guardrails to Netflix walking away from a bad deal, Chuck sees a telling pattern: companies are pushing back on a president who looks weak.
Finally, Chuck takes an illuminating detour into his "Time Machine" segment, tracing how communication technology has permanently reshaped the American presidency, from Alexander Graham Bell’s first phone call, to FDR's fireside chats, all the way to Trump’s constant social media use. Plus, Chuck answers listener questions touching subjects like the potential similarities between Pearl Harbor and Trump’s Iran strikes, NIL in college sports, what's really going on with Democrats’ reactions to politicians like John Fetterman straying from the party line, and James Talarico’s bid for Congress.

Go to https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
7:00 Trump's presidency entering "presidential quicksand"
9:00 Iran war: an expensive political disaster
11:00 Trump has no strategic endgame in Iran
12:00 Why regime change in Iran won't work
15:00 Trump's market collapse & terrible jobs report
19:00 Swing voters abandoning Trump
21:00 Supreme Court striking down Trump's tariffs
23:00 Corporate America pushing back: Anthropic, Netflix, small businesses
32:00 Republican label becoming a liability
36:00 Montana: Daines retirement stuns state
39:00 Trump no longer an outsider, now seen as the establishment
43:00 Biden/Afghanistan parallel: one bad moment can permanently crater approval ratings
57:00 Time Machine: how technology transformed the presidency
59:00 Lincoln's telegraph, FDR's fireside chats, and the evolution of presidential communication
1:09:00 How communication technology reshaped corporate leadership
1:11:00 Technology's role in weakening Congress
1:13:00 Ask Chuck: Iran vs. Pearl Harbor comparison
1:15:00 Trump's inane college football roundtable
1:31:00 Fetterman & Sinema: Democrats' narrowing ideology
1:36:00 Question about changing county borders
1:40:00 Talarico's congressional bid
1:42:00 World Baseball Classic
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a blistering assessment of Trump's Iran war, arguing that the conflict has gone sideways in virtually every way imaginable — and that the lack of consequences for Trump's past norm-breaking gave him a false sense of impunity that led him here. Todd traces the logic: Iran looked like a paper tiger after the limited strikes in 2025, Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant regime insider to step forward — but none of those hopes have materialized. Instead, the forces that wanted to overthrow the regime have gone underground, the CIA is now arming and training Kurds in what Chuck bluntly asks amounts to deliberately triggering a civil war, Iran has inflicted real damage on multiple Gulf states, and stranded Americans were told by the State Department they were on their own because the administration made no evacuation plan whatsoever. He zeroes in on the damning timeline: if the administration had time to move an armada into position, they had time to warn American citizens. He flags that passing a war supplemental will be a brutal vote for GOP members, that JD Vance now has to defend a war antithetical to his entire political identity, and pivots to the Texas runoff noting that James Talarico's biggest vulnerability is being more progressive than his nice-guy persona suggests, but that demeanor may be his superpower in a cycle where voters are exhausted by bomb-throwers.
Political commentator Chris Cillizza — who co-hosted the live Texas primary night coverage with Chuck— rejoins the show to dissect the aftermath of the Texas results and the broader 2026 landscape. With Jasmine Crockett having conceded to James Talarico and the Paxton-Cornyn race headed to a runoff that's essentially a coin flip, Todd and Cillizza dig into what Talarico's victory really means: he dominated in counties Bernie Sanders won, Latino voters broke decisively his way, and his ground game should terrify Republicans — but they caution against mistaking someone who is temperamentally moderate and perceived as "nice" for being politically moderate. They argue that Texas Democrats, having lost for so long, were desperate for something new, and that constant losing has made electability matter more than ideology — Democrats had to vote with their heads, not their hearts. They assess Crockett's future (great political athlete, bad campaign infrastructure, potential to compete for Ted Cruz's seat someday), debate whether Democrats should meddle in the GOP runoff to boost Paxton, and note that Talarico’s floor is around 47-48% — meaning Texas is genuinely in play.
The conversation then expands to the national map and the broader forces shaping 2026. They unpack Kamala Harris's late endorsement of Crockett — which came too late to matter and reinforces the same knock Biden got about indecisiveness — and Gavin Newsom's conspicuous shift on Israel in front of a liberal audience. They contrast that with the authenticity of politicians like Bernie Sanders and early-career JD Vance, noting that Vance has now lost his anti-interventionist identity after backing the Iran war while the administration's narrative spinning on the conflict is "an absolute mess." Looking ahead, they agree that the perception of the economy in June will be what drives the midterms, that the war will consume the administration — especially given the embarrassing lack of an evacuation plan for Americans in the Middle East, Trump's biggest critique of Biden — and that prediction markets now give Democrats a 45% chance of winning the Senate. They close by surveying pickup opportunities in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, flagging independent candidates in the Midwest who know they can't win as Democrats, and declaring that 2026 will be the clearest preview yet of how 2028 plays out.
Finally, he reacts to the breaking news that Montana senator Steve Daines retired minutes before the filing deadline and argues that Republicans will be forced to defend what was a safe seat, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Go to https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:45 Trump’s war with Iran is not going well for him politically
02:30 Multiple countries have been dragged into a piece of the war
03:30 Lack of consequences for past actions gave Trump sense of impunity
04:45 Iran looked like a paper tiger after strikes in June 2025
05:30 Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it
07:30 Trump hoped for an uprising or a pliant member of the regime
08:45 None of those hopes have materialized
09:30 Forces that wanted to overthrow regime went underground
10:30 The CIA is arming and training Kurds to overthrow the regime
11:45 Are we TRYING to trigger a civil war???
12:30 Regime change won’t come nearly as easy as Trump thought
13:15 Iran has inflicted damage to multiple gulf states
14:45 You can’t discount Trump’s business relationship as factors for war
16:00 Kushner involved in negotiations and has serious conflicts of interest
17:15 The administration is trying to use Israel as a shield
18:15 Administration made no plan to evacuate stranded Americans
19:00 Clearly was no imminent threat from Iran
20:30 If they had time to move the armada, they had time to warn Americans
21:30 The Iranians weren’t surprised that we were going to attack
22:30 Trump promised Iranian protestors “Help is on the way” - Took 40 days
23:00 State department told stranded Americans they were on their own
24:30 They put thought into the war itself, but not for the consequences
26:30 What’s Plan C? Hoping for a civil war?
27:15 This is Iraq on steroids and we have less credibility globally
28:30 Cost of providing stability in the region is politically unpopular
29:30 It’s a lot easier to start a war than to finish one
30:45 George H.W. Bush had a clean war with Iraq and voters punished him
32:00 When you’re under 80% support with your own party, you’re in trouble
33:30 Trump isn’t an isolationist, he’s a unilateralist. Do what he says
34:45 Passing a supplemental bill for war funding will be tough vote for GOP
36:30 J.D. Vance has to defend a war that’s antithetical to his political identity
37:30 Trump will endorse in Texas primary and expects the other to drop out
38:15 What will Trump offer Paxton to drop out early?
40:45 Republicans can’t win primary without Trump & he’s general election baggage
41:30 Talarico’s biggest vulnerability is he’s more progressive than his persona
42:15 Demeanor goes a long way in politics, could be Talarico’s superpower
45:00 Good for the Dems brand that first nominee (Talarico) isn’t a bomb thrower
53:30 Chris Cillizza joins the Chuck ToddCast
55:00 Jasmine Crockett concedes race to James Talarico
55:45 Race between Paxton & Cornyn essentially a wash
56:30 Big question is “Can Cornyn get to 50%”
57:15 Public is getting tired with the bomb throwers in politics
59:15 Talarico did well in counties that Bernie Sanders won
1:00:15 Texas Dems have been losing forever, desperate for “new”
1:02:00 Don’t mistake politically & temperamentally “moderate”
1:02:45 Being perceived as “nice” goes a long way
1:04:00 Online Dems are mad, but many want a change in tone
1:05:30 If Platner beats Mills by 15, Talarico data point feels like outlier
1:06:15 Have constant Dem losses in TX made “electability” more important?
1:07:15 Dems in Texas have to vote with their head and not their heart
1:09:00 Crockett is a great political athlete with bad campaign infrastructure
1:10:00 Talarico had a great ground game, should scare Republicans
1:11:15 Crockett could compete for Ted Cruz’s senate seat
1:12:00 Unlikely this is the last we hear from Crockett in politics
1:13:00 Crockett did well where she was well known
1:14:00 Kamala Harris endorsement came too late for Crockett
1:15:00 Harris shows herself to be incredibly risk averse
1:17:45 We’ll get the full story on the late endorsement in six months
1:18:30 Harris shares the same knock Biden got… can’t make decisions
1:19:15 Newsom signals shift on Israel in front of a very liberal audience
1:20:30 Newsom just pandering? Or is it a genuine flip
1:22:00 Gavin Newsom is a politician to his core
1:23:30 Newsom looked like he was desperate to find traction
1:24:00 Trump didn’t change, the moment came to him
1:25:00 Tariffs are terrible politics, but Trump’s liked them for decades
1:25:30 Bernie Sanders has been the most authentic politician for years
1:26:45 Sanders and Ron Paul ended up voting together many times
1:28:15 Vance lost the anti-interventionist part of his identity after Iran war
1:30:00 The spinning for a narrative for the war is an absolute mess
1:31:30 The perception of the economy in June will be what affects midterms
1:32:45 War will consume the administration
1:33:30 Administration had no plan to evacuate Americans from middle east
1:34:30 Trump’s big critique of Biden was the Afghanistan withdrawal
1:37:00 Prediction markets have Dems chances of winning senate at 45%
1:39:45 How should Dems try to affect Texas runoff?
1:41:30 Meddling works and if Cornyn is the nominee Talarico loses
1:42:00 Talarico’s floor is around 47-48
1:42:30 How do Dems sort Alaska, Ohio, Texas and Iowa?
1:43:45 If Josh Turek is the nominee in Iowa, race could be interesting
1:45:00 2026 will give us a clue as to how 2028 will play out
1:46:30 If one of the independent candidate wins statewide it’s a BIG deal
1:49:00 Midwest independent candidates know they can’t run as Dems and win
1:55:00 Montana senator Steve Daines announces retirement
1:55:45 Retirement will put Montana senate seat into play
1:56:15 Will this put pressure on Jon Tester to come out of retirement?
1:56:45 Montana will now be a key cog in campaign 2026
1:58:00 Potential that transplants could turn Montana into Colorado politically
1:59:00 Republicans will be favored, but it will require work & money
2:00:30 Democrats have had success in Montana in midterm years
2:01:00 This week just keeps getting worse for Republicans
2:02:00 Ask Chuck
2:02:30 Do reliably red/blue states get less investment from the federal government?
2:08:15 Could Trump try to trigger NATO’s Article V over Iran?
2:17:00 Will Texas AG runoff produce even more radical anti-trans rhetoric & policy?
2:20:00 My son thinks voting is useless. How do we teach the new generation it matters?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Political commentator Chris Cillizza — who co-hosted the live Texas primary night coverage with Chuck— rejoins the show to dissect the aftermath of the Texas results and the broader 2026 landscape. With Jasmine Crockett having conceded to James Talarico and the Paxton-Cornyn race headed to a runoff that's essentially a coin flip, Todd and Cillizza dig into what Talarico's victory really means: he dominated in counties Bernie Sanders won, Latino voters broke decisively his way, and his ground game should terrify Republicans — but they caution against mistaking someone who is temperamentally moderate and perceived as "nice" for being politically moderate. They argue that Texas Democrats, having lost for so long, were desperate for something new, and that constant losing has made electability matter more than ideology — Democrats had to vote with their heads, not their hearts. They assess Crockett's future (great political athlete, bad campaign infrastructure, potential to compete for Ted Cruz's seat someday), debate whether Democrats should meddle in the GOP runoff to boost Paxton, and note that Talarico’s floor is around 47-48% — meaning Texas is genuinely in play.
The conversation then expands to the national map and the broader forces shaping 2026. They unpack Kamala Harris's late endorsement of Crockett — which came too late to matter and reinforces the same knock Biden got about indecisiveness — and Gavin Newsom's conspicuous shift on Israel in front of a liberal audience. They contrast that with the authenticity of politicians like Bernie Sanders and early-career JD Vance, noting that Vance has now lost his anti-interventionist identity after backing the Iran war while the administration's narrative spinning on the conflict is "an absolute mess." Looking ahead, they agree that the perception of the economy in June will be what drives the midterms, that the war will consume the administration — especially given the embarrassing lack of an evacuation plan for Americans in the Middle East, Trump's biggest critique of Biden — and that prediction markets now give Democrats a 45% chance of winning the Senate. They close by surveying pickup opportunities in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, flagging independent candidates in the Midwest who know they can't win as Democrats, and declaring that 2026 will be the clearest preview yet of how 2028 plays out.

Go to https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chris Cillizza joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:30 Jasmine Crockett concedes race to James Talarico
02:15 Race between Paxton & Cornyn essentially a wash
03:00 Big question is “Can Cornyn get to 50%”
03:45 Public is getting tired with the bomb throwers in politics
05:45 Talarico did well in counties that Bernie Sanders won
06:45 Texas Dems have been losing forever, desperate for “new”
08:30 Don’t mistake politically & temperamentally “moderate”
09:15 Being perceived as “nice” goes a long way
10:30 Online Dems are mad, but many want a change in tone
12:00 If Platner beats Mills by 15, Talarico data point feels like outlier
12:45 Have constant Dem losses in TX made “electability” more important?
13:45 Dems in Texas have to vote with their head and not their heart
15:30 Crockett is a great political athlete with bad campaign infrastructure
16:30 Talarico had a great ground game, should scare Republicans
17:45 Crockett could compete for Ted Cruz’s senate seat
18:30 Unlikely this is the last we hear from Crockett in politics
19:30 Crockett did well where she was well known
20:30 Kamala Harris endorsement came too late for Crockett
21:30 Harris shows herself to be incredibly risk averse
24:15 We’ll get the full story on the late endorsement in six months
25:00 Harris shares the same knock Biden got… can’t make decisions
25:45 Newsom signals shift on Israel in front of a very liberal audience
27:00 Newsom just pandering? Or is it a genuine flip
28:30 Gavin Newsom is a politician to his core
30:00 Newsom looked like he was desperate to find traction
30:30 Trump didn’t change, the moment came to him
31:30 Tariffs are terrible politics, but Trump’s liked them for decades
32:00 Bernie Sanders has been the most authentic politician for years
33:15 Sanders and Ron Paul ended up voting together many times
34:45 Vance lost the anti-interventionist part of his identity after Iran war
36:30 The spinning for a narrative for the war is an absolute mess
38:00 The perception of the economy in June will be what affects midterms
39:15 War will consume the administration
40:00 Administration had no plan to evacuate Americans from middle east
41:00 Trump’s big critique of Biden was the Afghanistan withdrawal
43:30 Prediction markets have Dems chances of winning senate at 45%
46:15 How should Dems try to affect Texas runoff?
48:00 Meddling works and if Cornyn is the nominee Talarico loses
48:30 Talarico’s floor is around 47-48
49:00 How do Dems sort Alaska, Ohio, Texas and Iowa?
50:15 If Josh Turek is the nominee in Iowa, race could be interesting
51:30 2026 will give us a clue as to how 2028 will play out
53:00 If one of the independent candidate wins statewide it’s a BIG deal
55:30 Midwest independent candidates know they can’t run as Dems and win
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.