The Chuck ToddCast

Mark Zandi — chief economist at Moody's Analytics and one of the most quoted forecasters in America — joins the Chuck Toddcast to deliver a remarkably sobering verdict on where the economy actually stands: without the $700 billion currently being poured into AI investment, the United States would already be in or close to recession. The latest CPI and PPI reports came back ugly and uglier, oil shocks from the Iran war will keep prices elevated through 2027 even if the war ended tomorrow (Zandi says don't expect $3 gas again until then), real disposable income has been flat or falling for a year, FHA mortgage delinquencies are at their highest level since the Great Recession, and the bottom 40% of earners are living genuinely paycheck to paycheck. Zandi pushes back on lazy comparisons to the 1970s — conditions were objectively worse then, with a self-reinforcing wage-price loop that took a brutal recession to break — but warns that nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed chair specifically to cut rates would risk replaying exactly that movie, and that a policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic.

The deeper diagnosis is brutal: employment was growing steadily and inflation was easing until Liberation Day, when both reversed simultaneously — meaning Trump's tariffs are the most obvious thing to cut, and the question of who actually benefits from them gets harder to answer every month. The mass deportation policy is costing the country roughly 0.5-0.7% of GDP growth that normal immigration would have provided, with agriculture, construction, hospitality and services taking direct hits. Zandi sees economic weakness most pronounced in the South and West, healthcare-anchored cities like Philadelphia outperforming Florida and Texas, and a national debt now exceeding GDP that's setting the conditions for a potential bond market sell-off — with global investors already being advised to diversify away from the dollar as America deglobalizes and the world quietly pulls away. His most striking observation: the fixes are all sitting on the shelf. America doesn't need new ideas to solve any of this — it needs the political will to use the ones we already have, and that will probably won't materialize until a genuine crisis forces it. By the midterms, voters will be feeling the worst of it, and while partisan media can try to spin the numbers all it wants — reality is much harder to spin.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast
00:45 CPI inflation and PPI inflation reports came back ugly & uglier
02:00 The through lines are ugly and going to get worse due to oil prices
02:45 Even if the war ended today, higher prices would last all year
03:15 Inflation has been accelerating under Trump, was on track under Biden
04:15 Inflation was worse during Covid combined with start of Ukraine war
07:00 Economy and stagflation were much worse in the 70s than now
07:45 Conditions different from 70s, there was a self-reinforcing loop in 70s
08:30 The only way out of 70s stagflation was a very severe recession
09:15 Kevin Warsh nominated for Fed chair to lower interest rates
10:00 If Warsh cuts interest rates, we risk a repeat of the 70s
10:45 A policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic
11:15 Rate cuts won’t happen since they are set by a board
11:45 Economy won’t have time to recover in time for the midterm elections
13:00 Partisan media can try to spin the economy, but reality is hard to spin
14:15 We won’t be back to $3/gallon gas until 2027 most likely
14:45 Last 3 months, the economy got a boost due to tax refunds that are fading
16:00 Real disposable income has fallen or stayed stagnant the past year
16:45 Bottom 40% earners are struggling badly, living paycheck to paycheck
17:45 FHA mortgage delinquency rates are rising, highest since great recession
19:00 Things will feel worse economically by the midterm election
20:30 Without $700B in AI investment, we’d be close to, or in a recession
22:45 Last two jobs reports better than expected, tax cuts acted as stimulus
23:30 The job market is still very weak
24:30 With normal immigration we’d grow GDP by 0.5-0.7%, and lost that
25:30 Data shows immigrants don’t take jobs native born workers have
26:30 Lack of immigrants will hit state & local government budgets hard
27:15 Agriculture, construction, hospitality and services hit hard by deportations
29:00 Air travel hasn’t fallen off due to economic conditions… yet
29:45 High end consumer spending on recreation hasn’t fallen off at all
30:45 Is the proposal to cap credit card interest rate at 10% a good idea?
31:30 Companies won’t offer credit lines to consumers without great credit scores
32:15 Trump cutting the tariffs is the most obvious solution to higher prices
33:00 Employment was increasing regularly until Liberation Day tariffs
33:30 Inflation also took off on Liberation Day
34:15 Who actually benefits from Trump’s tariffs?
35:30 Suspending gas tax would result in .10-.15c lower prices at pump
37:30 Cutting the gas tax likely won’t result in any political benefit
39:00 Economic weakness most pronounced in the south & the west
41:00 Cities with big healthcare industries having most job growth, Philly leading
42:45 Pennsylvania economy rowing faster than Florida or Texas
43:15 America’s national debt exceeds GDP, how concerned should we be?
45:30 Indicators show we having a massive debt and deficit problem
47:00 The conditions for a sell off in the bond market are in place
47:30 It’s going to take a crisis to generate political will to act on the debt
48:45 America is deglobalizing, and world pulling away from us
49:15 Investors being advised to diversify away from the dollar
50:30 The fixes to the economy are all sitting on the shelf. Don’t need new ideas
52:00 AI job displacement hasn’t hit hard yet, but could be coming soon
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens by previewing Mark Zandi's sobering economic forecast from this episode and arrives at a simple, devastating conclusion: every single policy decision Trump has made has made the economy worse, tax refunds have already been gobbled up by inflation, and the math guarantees voters will feel even worse by the midterms — meaning Republicans on the ballot should be furious with the president, and those in swing districts have no choice but to start distancing themselves from his policies now. But the real heat in this episode comes from his analysis of Trump's trip to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping, which he frames as the diplomatic equivalent of going hat in hand. He argues there's simply no winning a trade war with China, that scrapping the TPP and the JCPOA will go down as two of the most colossal strategic mistakes of the modern era, and that Trump's combined Iran and China policies have somehow managed to strengthen both adversaries simultaneously — to the point that his foreign policy decisions are starting to make him look, in Chuck’s words, like a Manchurian candidate. The world is now beginning to view the United States itself as the global boogeyman, and Trump's presidency is doing damage to America's long-term standing that will take a generation to repair. The brutal irony, he notes, is that Trump now needs more from China than China needs from America: China is the only country with real leverage over Iran, defenders of Taiwanese independence are quietly terrified that Trump could trade them away for an economic off-ramp, and Xi gets to sit across the table from a desperate American president whose negotiating position keeps eroding by the day.

Then, Mark Zandi — chief economist at Moody's Analytics and one of the most quoted forecasters in America — joins the Chuck Toddcast to deliver a remarkably sobering verdict on where the economy actually stands: without the $700 billion currently being poured into AI investment, the United States would already be in or close to recession. The latest CPI and PPI reports came back ugly and uglier, oil shocks from the Iran war will keep prices elevated through 2027 even if the war ended tomorrow (Zandi says don't expect $3 gas again until then), real disposable income has been flat or falling for a year, FHA mortgage delinquencies are at their highest level since the Great Recession, and the bottom 40% of earners are living genuinely paycheck to paycheck. Zandi pushes back on lazy comparisons to the 1970s — conditions were objectively worse then, with a self-reinforcing wage-price loop that took a brutal recession to break — but warns that nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed chair specifically to cut rates would risk replaying exactly that movie, and that a policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic.

The deeper diagnosis is brutal: employment was growing steadily and inflation was easing until Liberation Day, when both reversed simultaneously — meaning Trump's tariffs are the most obvious thing to cut, and the question of who actually benefits from them gets harder to answer every month. The mass deportation policy is costing the country roughly 0.5-0.7% of GDP growth that normal immigration would have provided, with agriculture, construction, hospitality and services taking direct hits. Zandi sees economic weakness most pronounced in the South and West, healthcare-anchored cities like Philadelphia outperforming Florida and Texas, and a national debt now exceeding GDP that's setting the conditions for a potential bond market sell-off — with global investors already being advised to diversify away from the dollar as America deglobalizes and the world quietly pulls away. His most striking observation: the fixes are all sitting on the shelf. America doesn't need new ideas to solve any of this — it needs the political will to use the ones we already have, and that will probably won't materialize until a genuine crisis forces it. By the midterms, voters will be feeling the worst of it, and while partisan media can try to spin the numbers all it wants — reality is much harder to spin.
Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:00 Mark Zandi paints a sobering picture about state of the economy
02:30 Every Trump policy decision has made has made the economy worse
03:45 Tax refunds have been gobbled up by inflation
04:15 The economy will only feel worse to people by midterm elections
06:30 Republicans on the ballot should be furious with Trump
07:15 Republicans in swing areas have to distance from Trump policies
08:15 Trump in China to meet with Xi Jinping
09:00 There’s no winning a trade war with China
10:30 Getting rid of the TPP & JCPOA were colossal mistakes
11:30 Trump is losing the Iran war and strengthened Iran & China
12:00 Trump’s policies make him look like a Manchurian candidate
12:30 The world is now starting to view the US as the boogeyman
13:15 Trump’s presidency has been terribly damaging long term to the US
14:30 We need more from China than they need from us
15:00 China is the only country that could lean on Iran
15:45 Defenders of Taiwan independence worried Trump could cave
16:45 Trump is desperate for Xi’s help
21:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast
21:45 CPI inflation and PPI inflation reports came back ugly & uglier
23:00 The through lines are ugly and going to get worse due to oil prices
23:45 Even if the war ended today, higher prices would last all year
24:15 Inflation has been accelerating under Trump, was on track under Biden
25:15 Inflation was worse during Covid combined with start of Ukraine war
28:00 Economy and stagflation were much worse in the 70s than now
28:45 Conditions different from 70s, there was a self-reinforcing loop in 70s
29:30 The only way out of 70s stagflation was a very severe recession
30:15 Kevin Warsh nominated for Fed chair to lower interest rates
31:00 If Warsh cuts interest rates, we risk a repeat of the 70s
31:45 A policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic
32:15 Rate cuts won’t happen since they are set by a board
32:45 Economy won’t have time to recover in time for the midterm elections
34:00 Partisan media can try to spin the economy, but reality is hard to spin
35:15 We won’t be back to $3/gallon gas until 2027 most likely
35:45 Last 3 months, the economy got a boost due to tax refunds that are fading
37:00 Real disposable income has fallen or stayed stagnant the past year
37:45 Bottom 40% earners are struggling badly, living paycheck to paycheck
38:45 FHA mortgage delinquency rates are rising, highest since great recession
40:00 Things will feel worse economically by the midterm election
41:30 Without $700B in AI investment, we’d be close to, or in a recession
43:45 Last two jobs reports better than expected, tax cuts acted as stimulus
44:30 The job market is still very weak
45:30 With normal immigration we’d grow GDP by 0.5-0.7%, and lost that
46:30 Data shows immigrants don’t take jobs native born workers have
47:30 Lack of immigrants will hit state & local government budgets hard
48:15 Agriculture, construction, hospitality and services hit hard by deportations
50:00 Air travel hasn’t fallen off due to economic conditions… yet
50:45 High end consumer spending on recreation hasn’t fallen off at all
51:45 Is the proposal to cap credit card interest rate at 10% a good idea?
52:30 Companies won’t offer credit lines to consumers without great credit scores
53:15 Trump cutting the tariffs is the most obvious solution to higher prices
54:00 Employment was increasing regularly until Liberation Day tariffs
54:30 Inflation also took off on Liberation Day
55:15 Who actually benefits from Trump’s tariffs?
56:30 Suspending gas tax would result in .10-.15c lower prices at pump
58:30 Cutting the gas tax likely won’t result in any political benefit
1:00:00 Economic weakness most pronounced in the south & the west
1:02:00 Cities with big healthcare industries having most job growth, Philly leading
1:03:45 Pennsylvania economy rowing faster than Florida or Texas
1:04:15 America’s national debt exceeds GDP, how concerned should we be?
1:06:30 Indicators show we having a massive debt and deficit problem
1:08:00 The conditions for a sell off in the bond market are in place
1:08:30 It’s going to take a crisis to generate political will to act on the debt
1:09:45 America is deglobalizing, and world pulling away from us
1:10:15 Investors being advised to diversify away from the dollar
1:11:30 The fixes to the economy are all sitting on the shelf. Don’t need new ideas
1:13:00 AI job displacement hasn’t hit hard yet, but could be coming soon
1:16:15 Need a stiff drink after the interview with Mark Zandi
1:16:45 Ask Chuck
1:17:00 Alternative idea for formula to expand the house of representatives?
1:21:45 Will there be any impact from Susan Collins disclosing her tremors?
1:25:30 Thanks for interview with lawyers suing big tech, screen time is down
1:26:45 Could you argue that SCOTUS striking down New Deal policy was most impactful?
1:28:45 Is Dems gerrymandering more about deterrence and not pure hypocrisy?
1:33:15 If a justice steps down, who would Trump nominate. What would impacts be?
1:37:45 Thanks for the pod. It’s helped me get through long dialysis sessions
1:39:15 NBA playoffs reaction
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with Trump getting visibly defensive with reporters over a brutal new inflation report — and argues the bad economy is in worse shape directly because of Trump's policies, with the president himself having zero answers for the data. He notes that AI investment is essentially the only thing propping up the economy, and that we are at least weeks away from the end of the Iran war. He warns we're only at the beginning of the inflation problem and that Democrats can simply point to Trump's broken promises of lower costs and no wars — they don't even need to make a "for" case, just a sustained "against" case — but cautions that despite all of this, Democrats still have a serious brand problem that no economic data alone will fix. He argues the failed Virginia redistricting effort exposed the deeper issue: Democrats talk like the resistance but are viewed as institutionalists, while Republicans still behave like raw partisans, and the rise of independent voters represents a fundamental protest against both available parties — something that should worry Democrats more than Republicans because the GOP has already shown a willingness to blow up the system. He makes a sweeping argument that until the last decade, Democrats were a reform-focused party, but the Trump era has pushed them into becoming defenders of institutions at exactly the moment when public trust in institutions had collapsed. He closes with observations from the Musk-Altman trial, which he says has been revealing about the personalities actually building AI — with OpenAI employees testifying to Altman's lying and the internal chaos, and so much tech ego on display that the public, already feeling burned by big tech, is only going to grow more skeptical.
Finally Chuck reveals his bonus TWO ToddCast Top 5 lists, the top 5 2028 Democratic hopefuls who have run for president before, and the top who haven’t. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:30 Trump gets defensive with reporters over bad inflation report
03:00 Economy is in worse shape directly because of Trump’s policies
03:45 Trump has zero answers for the bad state of the economy
04:45 Dow still hasn’t gotten back over 50k since Bondi’s viral moment
05:45 AI investment is the only thing propping up the economy
06:30 We are weeks away from the end of the Iran war… at minimum
07:45 Despite the bad economy, Democrats still have a brand problem
08:30 We are only at the beginning of the inflation problem
09:15 Dems can point to Trump breaking promise of lower costs & no wars
10:00 Dems don’t even have to make a “for” case, just an “against” case
11:00 Another variable is what the political maps look like by the midterms
12:15 The issue for the Dems is what the party stands for… what’s its identity?
13:00 Dems ‘28 hopefuls need to, and will jump in early
13:45 Dems failed redistricting in VA exposed a problem with the party
15:45 Dems talk like resistance but are viewed as institutionalists
16:30 GOP still behaves more like raw partisans
17:15 South Carolina would have risked disaster by carving up Clyburn’s seat
18:45 Backlash to SCOTUS gutting Voting Rights Act could juice Dem turnout
19:45 Why do both parties seem against reforming the system overall?
21:15 Politics has become completely nationalized and it’s a problem
21:45 Until the last decade, the Democrats were a reform focused party
23:00 The Trump era has pushed Dems into becoming defenders of institutions
23:45 Biden ran on preservation when trust in institutions had collapsed
25:15 The rise of independent voters shows protest for the two available parties
26:30 Rise of independents should worry Dems more than Republicans
27:45 Real reforms to the system would help rebuild trust with the public
29:30 Dems risk becoming custodians of a system people don’t trust
31:45 Dems took their eye off the ball, haven’t acted as reformers
35:30 The Musk/Altman trial has been revealing of the personalities building AI
36:00 OpenAI’s employees testified to Altman lying and chaos internally
37:15 So much tech ego on display at the trial
38:00 The public already feels burned by big tech
40:00 TWO ToddCast Top 5 lists today
42:45 Winning Democratic presidential candidates are usually first time candidates
46:45 Top 5 2028 Democratic candidates who have never run for president
47:00 2026 results will dictate who will eventually have best prospects in 2028
50:00 #5 2026 TBD, could be Rob Sand, Mallory McMorrow…Colbert?
50:30 #4 Josh Shapiro
51:30 #3 Gavin Newsom
52:45 #2 Wes Moore
53:45 #1 AOC
55:45 Top 5 2028 Dem candidates who HAVE run for president
56:00 #5 Amy Klobuchar
57:00 #4 Cory Booker
58:30 #3 Pete Buttigieg
1:00:00 #2 Bernie Sanders
1:01:00 #1 Kamala Harris
1:02:30 Ask Chuck
1:02:45 Modern equivalent of the “good government” groups of the 20th century?
1:07:30 When should Dems make strategic adjustments vs compromising values?
1:10:30 Is a socially conservative, fiscally liberal platform viable?
1:13:00 Could co-op’s be a viable solution to modern economic challenges?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This episode of the Chuck Toddcast features a deep dive into the AI governance crisis with two of the leading experts in the field. First, Miriam Vogel — president and CEO of EqualAI — joins the show to explain her organization's mission of establishing meaningful AI guardrails at a moment when American consumers are deeply skeptical of big tech and less than 1% of companies have anything resembling strong AI governance policies. Vogel argues that good governance means corporate leadership must take direct responsibility for AI deployment, walks through her five best practices for responsible AI adoption, and pushes back on the idea that federal preemption should override state-level regulation — noting that companies are pushing hard against state regulation precisely because they know most of the actual rules will be written in court cases over the next few years. She warns that we're seeing tremendous investment in AI without commensurate ROI so far, that gender and regional gaps in AI adoption are already emerging, and that the public urgently needs to be empowered with real knowledge about AI's upsides as well as its risks. Vogel asks the question that should keep every executive up at night: are we actually ready for AI to make decisions without humans in the loop? And she argues that transparency — letting employees and consumers see how AI errors play out — will be absolutely essential to safe deployment.
Then former Deputy National Security Advisor Anne Neuberger joins to discuss what global AI governance should look like between superpowers, and whether the arms race framing between the U.S. and China is actually helpful or harmful. Neuberger argues AI is fundamentally different from nuclear regulation because it's being developed by the private sector rather than by governments, and questions whether it was a mistake to let the private sector spearhead this technology in the first place. Drawing on her cybersecurity background, she walks through how governments learned to combat ransomware: extending existing rules for fiat currencies to cover cryptocurrencies (which had helped criminals evade detection), disincentivizing ransom payments, and helping companies recover without paying — a template she argues could apply to AI regulation. Neuberger says AI drug development should be an international win-win rather than a zero-sum arms race, but acknowledges the national security applications make competition unavoidable, with advantages now measured in months rather than years and dangerously inadequate military-to-military communication between the U.S. and China. They debate whether an "FDA for AI models" might be necessary, that existing regulations can be updated to cover AI without requiring new legislation, and that AI will ultimately transform defensive cybersecurity by allowing companies to double-check their infrastructure at scale. Her bottom line: laws always trail technology, but governments have key roles to play in identifying cyber risks, helping companies patch their infrastructure, and ensuring America's defenders aren't left behind as Chinese models close the six-month gap.
Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
02:45 Miriam Vogel joins the Chuck ToddCast
03:00 Equal AI’s mission is to establish AI guardrails
04:15 American consumers are extremely skeptical of big tech
05:00 Tech companies need to address users’ concerns & questions
07:00 Less than 1% of companies have strong AI governance policies
08:30 Some companies are working hard towards AI best practices
09:30 State vs. federal regulation for tech companies & AI
10:15 Why are companies pushing back against state level regulation?
12:15 Most of AI regulation will come down to the courts
14:00 We need more certainty of expectations from AI companies
16:15 AI is a disruptor, we can’t pretend it won’t be everywhere
17:30 Are we ready for AI to make decisions without humans in the loop?
18:15 Good governance means leadership must take responsibility for AI
19:15 If agentic AI without a human was outlawed, how would companies respond?
20:30 We’re seeing tremendous investment without the ROI so far
21:30 AI will scale at an exponential rate
22:15 We’re seeing gender and regional gaps in AI adoption
23:00 The public needs to be empowered with knowledge of AI’s upside
24:15 The five best practices for AI adoption
26:00 Employees and consumers will see how AI errors play out
27:15 Transparency will be key to safe AI deployment
28:45 Anne Neuberger joins the Chuck ToddCast
29:15 What should AI global governance look like between superpowers?
30:30 AI is different than nuclear regulation because it’s developed privately
31:15 Was it a mistake to let the private sector spearhead AI development?
32:30 Cybersecurity concerns and risks
33:45 Cryptocurrency helped criminals evade detection & enforcement
34:30 Every ransom payment encourages more cyber attacks & ransomware
35:45 Cyber threat intel was shared across governments
36:45 Governments extended rules for fiat currencies to cryptocurrencies
37:30 Governments had to disincentivize ransom payments
38:30 Goal was to help companies recover without paying a ransom
39:15 Both companies & government should share burden of security
40:45 AI is being framed as an arms race between U.S. and China
41:30 AI drug development should be an international win-win
42:30 The arms race framing applies to national security applications
44:15 The speed of innovation is so fast, a race feels unwinnable
45:30 Advantages in AI race will be measured in months, not years
46:15 There’s no good military to military comms between U.S. & China
48:30 Does government have any chance to effectively regulate AI?
49:15 It took a major cyberattack for government to figure out cybersecurity
50:00 Government took existing regulations and updated them for digital age
52:00 Existing regulations can also be updated to regulate AI without legislation
53:00 Should there be an FDA for AI models?
54:15 There needs to be a balance between innovation and regulation
55:15 Laws trail tech. Need to find regulation that protects the public
56:45 AI will transform defensive cybersecurity
57:30 AI can double check defensive cyber infrastructure at scale
59:15 We need to prepare our defenders, China’s models are 6 months behind
1:00:15 Companies will need help to patch and update their infrastructure
1:01:15 The government has a very key role to play in AI cybersecurity
1:02:15 Government has to clearly identify where the cyber risks are
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with Trump getting visibly defensive with reporters over a brutal new inflation report — and argues the bad economy is in worse shape directly because of Trump's policies, with the president himself having zero answers for the data. He notes that AI investment is essentially the only thing propping up the economy, and that we are at least weeks away from the end of the Iran war. He warns we're only at the beginning of the inflation problem and that Democrats can simply point to Trump's broken promises of lower costs and no wars — they don't even need to make a "for" case, just a sustained "against" case — but cautions that despite all of this, Democrats still have a serious brand problem that no economic data alone will fix. He argues the failed Virginia redistricting effort exposed the deeper issue: Democrats talk like the resistance but are viewed as institutionalists, while Republicans still behave like raw partisans, and the rise of independent voters represents a fundamental protest against both available parties — something that should worry Democrats more than Republicans because the GOP has already shown a willingness to blow up the system. He makes a sweeping argument that until the last decade, Democrats were a reform-focused party, but the Trump era has pushed them into becoming defenders of institutions at exactly the moment when public trust in institutions had collapsed. He closes with observations from the Musk-Altman trial, which he says has been revealing about the personalities actually building AI — with OpenAI employees testifying to Altman's lying and the internal chaos, and so much tech ego on display that the public, already feeling burned by big tech, is only going to grow more skeptical.
This episode of the Chuck Toddcast features a deep dive into the AI governance crisis with two of the leading experts in the field. First, Miriam Vogel — president and CEO of EqualAI — joins the show to explain her organization's mission of establishing meaningful AI guardrails at a moment when American consumers are deeply skeptical of big tech and less than 1% of companies have anything resembling strong AI governance policies. Vogel argues that good governance means corporate leadership must take direct responsibility for AI deployment, walks through her five best practices for responsible AI adoption, and pushes back on the idea that federal preemption should override state-level regulation — noting that companies are pushing hard against state regulation precisely because they know most of the actual rules will be written in court cases over the next few years. She warns that we're seeing tremendous investment in AI without commensurate ROI so far, that gender and regional gaps in AI adoption are already emerging, and that the public urgently needs to be empowered with real knowledge about AI's upsides as well as its risks. Vogel asks the question that should keep every executive up at night: are we actually ready for AI to make decisions without humans in the loop? And she argues that transparency — letting employees and consumers see how AI errors play out — will be absolutely essential to safe deployment.
Then former Deputy National Security Advisor Anne Neuberger joins to discuss what global AI governance should look like between superpowers, and whether the arms race framing between the U.S. and China is actually helpful or harmful. Neuberger argues AI is fundamentally different from nuclear regulation because it's being developed by the private sector rather than by governments, and questions whether it was a mistake to let the private sector spearhead this technology in the first place. Drawing on her cybersecurity background, she walks through how governments learned to combat ransomware: extending existing rules for fiat currencies to cover cryptocurrencies (which had helped criminals evade detection), disincentivizing ransom payments, and helping companies recover without paying — a template she argues could apply to AI regulation. Neuberger says AI drug development should be an international win-win rather than a zero-sum arms race, but acknowledges the national security applications make competition unavoidable, with advantages now measured in months rather than years and dangerously inadequate military-to-military communication between the U.S. and China. They debate whether an "FDA for AI models" might be necessary, that existing regulations can be updated to cover AI without requiring new legislation, and that AI will ultimately transform defensive cybersecurity by allowing companies to double-check their infrastructure at scale. Her bottom line: laws always trail technology, but governments have key roles to play in identifying cyber risks, helping companies patch their infrastructure, and ensuring America's defenders aren't left behind as Chinese models close the six-month gap.
Finally Chuck reveals his bonus TWO ToddCast Top 5 lists, the top 5 2028 Democratic hopefuls who have run for president before, and the top who haven’t. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:30 Trump gets defensive with reporters over bad inflation report
03:00 Economy is in worse shape directly because of Trump’s policies
03:45 Trump has zero answers for the bad state of the economy
04:45 Dow still hasn’t gotten back over 50k since Bondi’s viral moment
05:45 AI investment is the only thing propping up the economy
06:30 We are weeks away from the end of the Iran war… at minimum
07:45 Despite the bad economy, Democrats still have a brand problem
08:30 We are only at the beginning of the inflation problem
09:15 Dems can point to Trump breaking promise of lower costs & no wars
10:00 Dems don’t even have to make a “for” case, just an “against” case
11:00 Another variable is what the political maps look like by the midterms
12:15 The issue for the Dems is what the party stands for… what’s its identity?
13:00 Dems ‘28 hopefuls need to, and will jump in early
13:45 Dems failed redistricting in VA exposed a problem with the party
15:45 Dems talk like resistance but are viewed as institutionalists
16:30 GOP still behaves more like raw partisans
17:15 South Carolina would have risked disaster by carving up Clyburn’s seat
18:45 Backlash to SCOTUS gutting Voting Rights Act could juice Dem turnout
19:45 Why do both parties seem against reforming the system overall?
21:15 Politics has become completely nationalized and it’s a problem
21:45 Until the last decade, the Democrats were a reform focused party
23:00 The Trump era has pushed Dems into becoming defenders of institutions
23:45 Biden ran on preservation when trust in institutions had collapsed
25:15 The rise of independent voters shows protest for the two available parties
26:30 Rise of independents should worry Dems more than Republicans
27:45 Real reforms to the system would help rebuild trust with the public
29:30 Dems risk becoming custodians of a system people don’t trust
31:45 Dems took their eye off the ball, haven’t acted as reformers
33:30 The Musk/Altman trial has been revealing of the personalities building AI
34:00 OpenAI’s employees testified to Altman lying and chaos internally
35:15 So much tech ego on display at the trial
36:00 The public already feels burned by big tech
43:30 Chuck Todd’s introduction
46:15 Miriam Vogel joins the Chuck ToddCast
46:30 Equal AI’s mission is to establish AI guardrails
47:45 American consumers are extremely skeptical of big tech
48:30 Tech companies need to address users’ concerns & questions
50:30 Less than 1% of companies have strong AI governance policies
52:00 Some companies are working hard towards AI best practices
53:00 State vs. federal regulation for tech companies & AI
53:45 Why are companies pushing back against state level regulation?
55:45 Most of AI regulation will come down to the courts
57:30 We need more certainty of expectations from AI companies
59:45 AI is a disruptor, we can’t pretend it won’t be everywhere
1:01:00 Are we ready for AI to make decisions without humans in the loop?
1:01:45 Good governance means leadership must take responsibility for AI
1:02:45 If agentic AI without a human was outlawed, how would companies respond?
1:04:00 We’re seeing tremendous investment without the ROI so far
1:05:00 AI will scale at an exponential rate
1:05:45 We’re seeing gender and regional gaps in AI adoption
1:06:30 The public needs to be empowered with knowledge of AI’s upside
1:07:45 The five best practices for AI adoption
1:09:30 Employees and consumers will see how AI errors play out
1:10:45 Transparency will be key to safe AI deployment
1:12:15 Anne Neuberger joins the Chuck ToddCast
1:12:45 What should AI global governance look like between superpowers?
1:14:00 AI is different than nuclear regulation because it’s developed privately
1:14:45 Was it a mistake to let the private sector spearhead AI development?
1:16:00 Cybersecurity concerns and risks
1:17:15 Cryptocurrency helped criminals evade detection & enforcement
1:18:00 Every ransom payment encourages more cyber attacks & ransomware
1:19:15 Cyber threat intel was shared across governments
1:20:15 Governments extended rules for fiat currencies to cryptocurrencies
1:21:00 Governments had to disincentivize ransom payments
1:22:00 Goal was to help companies recover without paying a ransom
1:22:45 Both companies & government should share burden of security
1:24:15 AI is being framed as an arms race between U.S. and China
1:25:00 AI drug development should be an international win-win
1:26:00 The arms race framing applies to national security applications
1:27:45 The speed of innovation is so fast, a race feels unwinnable
1:29:00 Advantages in AI race will be measured in months, not years
1:29:45 There’s no good military to military comms between U.S. & China
1:32:00 Does government have any chance to effectively regulate AI?
1:32:45 It took a major cyberattack for government to figure out cybersecurity
1:33:30 Government took existing regulations and updated them for digital age
1:35:30 Existing regulations can also be updated to regulate AI without legislation
1:36:30 Should there be an FDA for AI models?
1:37:45 There needs to be a balance between innovation and regulation
1:38:45 Laws trail tech. Need to find regulation that protects the public
1:40:15 AI will transform defensive cybersecurity
1:41:00 AI can double check defensive cyber infrastructure at scale
1:42:45 We need to prepare our defenders, China’s models are 6 months behind
1:43:45 Companies will need help to patch and update their infrastructure
1:44:45 The government has a very key role to play in AI cybersecurity
1:45:45 Government has to clearly identify where the cyber risks are
1:47:30 Thought the AI conversation was important, didn’t want it behind a paywall
1:48:30 The most difficult part of AI regulation will be the carrot & stick approach
1:49:30 TWO ToddCast Top 5 lists today
1:52:15 Winning Democratic presidential candidates are usually first time candidates
1:56:15 Top 5 2028 Democratic candidates who have never run for president
1:56:30 2026 results will dictate who will eventually have best prospects in 2028
1:59:30 #5 2026 TBD, could be Rob Sand, Mallory McMorrow…Colbert?
2:00:00 #4 Josh Shapiro
2:01:00 #3 Gavin Newsom
2:02:15 #2 Wes Moore
2:03:15 #1 AOC
2:05:15 Top 5 2028 Dem candidates who HAVE run for president
2:05:30 #5 Amy Klobuchar
2:06:30 #4 Cory Booker
2:08:00 #3 Pete Buttigieg
2:09:30 #2 Bernie Sanders
2:10:30 #1 Kamala Harris
2:12:00 Ask Chuck
2:12:15 Modern equivalent of the “good government” groups of the 20th century?
2:17:00 When should Dems make strategic adjustments vs compromising values?
2:20:00 Is a socially conservative, fiscally liberal platform viable?
2:22:30 Could co-op’s be a viable solution to modern economic challenges?
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