The Chuck ToddCast

Neera Tanden — president and CEO of the Center for American Progress and a longtime Democratic policy hand — joins the Chuck Toddcast for an unusually candid reckoning with where the party went wrong and what it actually needs to do next. Tanden doesn't soften the verdict: Democrats' one job in 2024 was to keep Trump out of office, and they failed, in part because the establishment let the Biden campaign go on far too long and has consequently lost credibility it hasn't earned back. She argues that in an era where every election is close, Democrats shouldn't be satisfied chasing narrow wins — the actual goal should be a decisive Electoral College victory built around a genuine 60% coalition, especially now that even longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away. Tanden is refreshingly specific on policy: she defends incrementalism as the proven Democratic playbook (the ACA and Biden's Medicare drug price negotiations both succeeded that way, while Medicare for All keeps stalling because people are fundamentally change-averse), argues entrenched Washington interests can block even a clear majority's will, and wants Democrats to build their economic message explicitly around working-class anxieties.They discuss the sharp moral case for the estate tax while cautioning that a wealth tax is nearly impossible to administer fairly year to year and would almost certainly be struck down by this Supreme Court.
The conversation turns to the internal Democratic civil war and the road to 2026 and beyond. Tanden argues there's no rise of the DSA without Trump's return, frames the Michigan Senate primary as the real petri-dish test for the left, and is blunt that Democrats in swing states need to remember they're in swing states. She calls for a real, honest autopsy of 2024, and lays out her vision for a Democratic trifecta in 2027: pass bills that directly address the cost of living, investigate the administration's corruption and recognize that Trump's entire contract with his base rests on the promise that he can never lose.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Neera Tanden joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:00 Developing ideas for the country’s biggest problems
02:30 Democrats have real anger with the Trump administration
03:30 Democrats job was to keep Trump out of office & they failed
05:00 Pelosi thought Biden would lose and chose to act, but too late
06:00 The establishment allowed the Biden campaign to go on too long
06:30 The establishment has less credibility than in the past
07:15 Longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away from him
08:30 Every election is close, never enough for repudiation
09:15 Goal should be a large scale electoral college victory
11:00 The opportunity to build a 60% coalition
13:00 The problems America faces seem to big for incrementalism
15:45 The success of the ACA came via incrementalism
16:30 Medicare drug price negotiation was a huge win for Biden
17:30 Problem with Medicare-for-all is people are changing averse
18:30 Entrenched interests in Washington can stop a majority
21:30 Dems should organize messaging to include more working class people
22:00 Why do we have a trillionaire when people are struggling with basics?
22:45 Working class people are more sensitive to crime issues
24:00 People are worried about the wealthy having too much power
25:30 Inheritance tax would help prevent oligarchy
27:00 People are pessimistic their kids won’t do better than them
27:30 It feels like the social contract has been eroded in America
29:00 If you believe in merit, you should believe in the estate tax
30:00 A wealth tax is hard to evaluate year to year
30:45 Supreme Court unlikely to find wealth tax constitutional
31:45 State wealth taxes are not a good idea
33:30 Democracy is undermined when there’s an economic nobility
35:00 Attitudes toward inequality were different in the 90s, every group doing better
37:15 There’s no rise of the DSA without the return of Trump
38:00 Michigan primary will be the petri dish test for the left
39:45 Democrats in swing states need to remember they’re swing states
40:30 Liberals in Texas thought Talarico was more electable
42:30 Progressives winning in blue cities isn’t that big of an issue
43:15 DSA needs to be cognizant that they would struggle in swing states
45:00 Democratic leadership has stayed the same
46:15 Democrats needs to do a real autopsy on 24
47:00 Harris being on the ticket saved the Democrats 4 senate seats
49:00 If Dems win both chambers, how should they spend 2027?
49:45 Dems should pass bills that address the cost of living
50:15 The administration’s corruption needs to be investigated
51:30 SCOTUS basically gave Trump a pass for illegality, Dems can’t do much
52:45 Republicans are starting to break, but they tolerate the intolerable
55:15 Trump’s contract with his base is that he can’t lose
56:30 Which under the radar senate race do you find most fascinating?
57:45 Amy Acton in Ohio will be the canary in the coalmine
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process.
Then, Neera Tanden — president and CEO of the Center for American Progress and a longtime Democratic policy hand — joins the Chuck Toddcast for an unusually candid reckoning with where the party went wrong and what it actually needs to do next. Tanden doesn't soften the verdict: Democrats' one job in 2024 was to keep Trump out of office, and they failed, in part because the establishment let the Biden campaign go on far too long and has consequently lost credibility it hasn't earned back. She argues that in an era where every election is close, Democrats shouldn't be satisfied chasing narrow wins — the actual goal should be a decisive Electoral College victory built around a genuine 60% coalition, especially now that even longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away. Tanden is refreshingly specific on policy: she defends incrementalism as the proven Democratic playbook, argues entrenched Washington interests can block even a clear majority's will, and wants Democrats to build their economic message explicitly around working-class anxieties.They discuss the sharp moral case for the estate tax while cautioning that a wealth tax is nearly impossible to administer fairly year to year and would almost certainly be struck down by this Supreme Court.
The conversation turns to the internal Democratic civil war and the road to 2026 and beyond. Tanden argues there's no rise of the DSA without Trump's return, frames the Michigan Senate primary as the real petri-dish test for the left, and is blunt that Democrats in swing states need to remember they're in swing states. She calls for a real, honest autopsy of 2024, and lays out her vision for a Democratic trifecta in 2027: pass bills that directly address the cost of living, investigate the administration's corruption and recognize that Trump's entire contract with his base rests on the promise that he can never lose.
Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections
06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months
07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day
08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day
09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans
10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House
11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans
12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats
14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map
14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate
16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate
17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle
18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago
18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year
19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas
21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats
21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses?
22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat
24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against
26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable
27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent
29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not
30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war
31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval
32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party
34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance
35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014
36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans
37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles
37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval
38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers
39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms
40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it
42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports
43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten
44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does
46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives
46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools
47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement
48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this
49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down
50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges
51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed
53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation
53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it
54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players
55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill
57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere
58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut
59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025
59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak
1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK
1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price
1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation
1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal
1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi
1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy
1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC
1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far
1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run?
1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder
1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries
1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club
1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate
1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries
01:14:00 Neera Tanden joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:15:00 Developing ideas for the country’s biggest problems
01:16:30 Democrats have real anger with the Trump administration
01:17:30 Democrats job was to keep Trump out of office & they failed
01:19:00 Pelosi thought Biden would lose and chose to act, but too late
01:20:00 The establishment allowed the Biden campaign to go on too long
01:20:30 The establishment has less credibility than in the past
01:21:15 Longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away from him
01:22:30 Every election is close, never enough for repudiation
01:23:15 Goal should be a large scale electoral college victory
01:25:00 The opportunity to build a 60% coalition
01:27:00 The problems America faces seem to big for incrementalism
01:29:45 The success of the ACA came via incrementalism
01:30:30 Medicare drug price negotiation was a huge win for Biden
01:31:30 Problem with Medicare-for-all is people are changing averse
01:32:30 Entrenched interests in Washington can stop a majority
01:35:30 Dems should organize messaging to include more working class people
01:36:00 Why do we have a trillionaire when people are struggling with basics?
01:36:45 Working class people are more sensitive to crime issues
01:38:00 People are worried about the wealthy having too much power
01:39:30 Inheritance tax would help prevent oligarchy
01:41:00 People are pessimistic their kids won’t do better than them
01:41:30 It feels like the social contract has been eroded in America
01:43:00 If you believe in merit, you should believe in the estate tax
01:44:00 A wealth tax is hard to evaluate year to year
01:44:45 Supreme Court unlikely to find wealth tax constitutional
01:45:45 State wealth taxes are not a good idea
01:47:30 Democracy is undermined when there’s an economic nobility
01:49:00 Attitudes toward inequality were different in the 90s, every group doing better
01:51:15 There’s no rise of the DSA without the return of Trump
01:52:00 Michigan primary will be the petri dish test for the left
01:53:45 Democrats in swing states need to remember they’re swing states
01:54:30 Liberals in Texas thought Talarico was more electable
01:56:30 Progressives winning in blue cities isn’t that big of an issue
01:57:15 DSA needs to be cognizant that they would struggle in swing states
01:59:00 Democratic leadership has stayed the same
02:00:15 Democrats needs to do a real autopsy on 24
02:01:00 Harris being on the ticket saved the Democrats 4 senate seats
02:03:00 If Dems win both chambers, how should they spend 2027?
02:03:45 Dems should pass bills that address the cost of living
02:04:15 The administration’s corruption needs to be investigated
02:05:30 SCOTUS basically gave Trump a pass for illegality, Dems can’t do much
02:06:45 Republicans are starting to break, but they tolerate the intolerable
02:09:15 Trump’s contract with his base is that he can’t lose
02:10:30 Which under the radar senate race do you find most fascinating?
02:11:45 Amy Acton in Ohio will be the canary in the coalmine
02:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties
02:14:00 #5 Oregon
02:15:00 #4 Ohio
02:16:15 #3 Wisconsin
02:18:15 #2 Kansas
02:19:00 #1 Iowa
02:20:00 Ask Chuck
02:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair
02:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin?
02:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time?
02:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida?
02:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process.
Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections
06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months
07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day
08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day
09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans
10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House
11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans
12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats
14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map
14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate
16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate
17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle
18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago
18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year
19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas
21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats
21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses?
22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat
24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against
26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable
27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent
29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not
30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war
31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval
32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party
34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance
35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014
36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans
37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles
37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval
38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers
39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms
40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it
42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports
43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten
44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does
46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives
46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools
47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement
48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this
49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down
50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges
51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed
53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation
53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it
54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players
55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill
57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere
58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut
59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025
59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak
1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK
1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price
1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation
1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal
1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi
1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy
1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC
1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far
1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run?
1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder
1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries
1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club
1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate
1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries
01:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties
01:14:00 #5 Oregon
01:15:00 #4 Ohio
01:16:15 #3 Wisconsin
01:18:15 #2 Kansas
01:19:00 #1 Iowa
01:20:00 Ask Chuck
01:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair
01:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin?
01:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time?
01:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida?
01:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With just 105 days until the 2026 midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza use their last Super Tuesday before the sub-100-day mark to take stock of what they think they know. The headline: with Trump's approval stuck below 40, gas back over $4, an Iran conflict reigniting, and an ICE controversy dominating the news, nearly every fundamental points toward Republicans losing both chambers — and the guys argue the only thing standing between Democrats and a monster year is the Democrats themselves. They dig deep into the polling weeds, unpacking why the generic ballot has quietly become more of a party-ID number, why you can't compare it across cycles anymore, why independents are breaking hard left, and what to make of the model giving Democrats a 62% shot at the House while Republicans hold a 59% edge in the Senate.
From there it's onto the races reshaping the map: South Carolina, where Trump ally Russell Frye jumps into the special and Lindsey Graham's appointed sister surprises everyone by running for a full term — a rare bit of GOP pragmatism that hands John Thune a much-needed win — and Maine, where Troy Jackson is set to be coronated at the Democratic convention and the ICE story has erased Susan Collins's post-Platner breathing room. Chuck and Chris also weigh the stalled Todd Blanche confirmation, the $400 million Qatari plane suddenly deemed too unsafe to fly, and why character and temperament remain the whole ballgame. Then they close on LeBron's looming decision — Heat, Cavs, or Sixers — and Chuck plugs the summer slate across the "Chuck Todd expanded universe."
Timeline:
00:00 105 days out from the midterms
02:07 Why August, not July, is when politics really kicks off
03:01 Why campaigns no longer wait for Labor Day to run their hits
04:34 Trump's approval is stuck below 40 a recipe for losing both chambers
05:44 ICE story erases whatever Collins got from the Platner disaster
06:49 Democrats are more motivated
07:23 Arizona Republicans line up to nominate a candidate who can't win
08:08 Trump's primetime speech relitigating 2020
09:26 GOP candidates on the trail are running as far from Trump as possible
10:50 Trump is too lazy to be a dictator
11:54 On 2020, Trump is on an island — even his own party won't follow
14:14 The history: 20 of the last 22 midterms punish the president's party
15:05 The generic ballot vs. 2018 and 2010, for reference
15:51 Why the generic ballot is now really a party-ID number
17:31 Trust the trend lines, not the raw numbers
19:59 The StateNavigate Georgia poll that floored them
20:49 Why Democrats peak in summer polling
22:19 A smarter "informed ballot" experiment using Google search results
24:36 Democrats 62% to win the House, Republicans 59% to hold the Senate
25:20 Why the Senate number is lower than it should be
26:54 Iowa as the 50-yard line for a wave
27:42 The daunting Senate map for Dems
30:04 Why the 62% House number surprised Chris
31:52 The one thing that changed all summer — a possible new forever war
32:56 The math favors the GOP: Democrats are playing a road game
34:18 No swing districts left, and a country sorted to the bone
36:03 South Carolina: Trump ally Russell Frye jumps into the special
36:56 Graham's appointed sister surprises by running for a full term
37:30 A rare case of Trump and the GOP doing the pragmatic thing
41:13 Troy Jackson set for a coronation
42:53 The stalled Todd Blanche confirmation & the $1.8B slush fund
43:15 Why the ICE story is a real problem for Collins
44:02 Ambition as a drug — Homan, Bovino, Noem & the $50k question
45:09 The Odyssey movie and how online discourse isn't real life
47:07 The $400M Qatari plane is suddenly too unsafe to fly
48:07 Character and temperament as the whole ballgame
50:20 Quotes that aged badly
52:05 Trump as Grover Cleveland
53:34 LeBron's decision: Heat, Cavs, or Sixers
56:20 Miami and Denver as the best physical fits for a 40-year-old LeBron
57:34 The Hall of Fame "five rings table" and the chase for a fifth title
1:00:17 What the prediction markets say
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Chuck Todd opens with a story that seems small and turns out to be a perfect miniature of everything wrong with this Pentagon: a Blue Angels flyover at Pensacola Beach came in too low, the pilot who made the honest mistake felt terrible about it — and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, without bothering to establish a single fact about what happened, seized the moment to gloat and own the libs. Chuck calls Hegseth an absolute clown and a fake soldier, argues the incident is a window into a Pentagon where the boss cares more about winning an online argument than about the safety of the people he commands, and where the entire "military testosterone" discourse — Hegseth's fixation on creating "supertrooper" fighting men is both dumb and genuinely dangerous. His verdict: a great American military culture is being actively degraded. He extends the same argument to ICE, where the violence has been entirely predictable — the officer involved in the latest shooting had enormous red flags in his background, and the agency appears to have no meaningful vetting process at all.
He also explains why, contrary to much of the commentary, he wasn't alarmed by Trump's primetime election-denial address: it was a nothingburger. Trump has no evidence, which is why he keeps turning to cranks — his endorsement of Mike Lindell tells you everything — and there's no policy response attached to his own foreign-interference allegations, since China has faced no sanction whatsoever for what Trump claims it did. He argues American elections are extraordinarily hard to overturn precisely because the system is decentralized, that Trump is too lazy to become a Putin or a Mao… A more disciplined president would frighten Chuck far more. Chuck sees a forever war taking shape in Iran: the strategy amounts to throwing kinetic weight at the problem and hoping the regime collapses, while Iran fights the asymmetric war it always planned, targeting Gulf states and now civilian survival infrastructure — hitting desalination plants could trigger a crisis lasting years — and nobody in Washington actually knows how to win. He closes with a genuinely important profile of Undersecretary Elbridge Colby, the intellectual architect of the new right's foreign policy and a favorite of JD Vance, whose vision of American retreat from its allies would effectively be the policy of a President Vance: Colby has trashed Mark Carney's "middle power" strategy and declared that no country is entitled to the American defense industry — which, notes, misses that buying military hardware is a 30-year bet on trusting an ally, and middle powers who conclude they can be coerced by Washington will simply take their money somewhere else. Quick hits on a messy Wisconsin governor's race (Tony Evers built no infrastructure and left no obvious heir in one of the country's most misunderstood swing states) and Tuesday's Arizona primary round things out.
Then, bestselling novelist Daniel Silva — creator of the Gabriel Allon series — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a conversation that starts with the craft of spy fiction and quickly becomes something closer to a threat assessment. Silva's newest plot turns on drones, and he's blunt that this isn't speculative: he believes it's a matter of time before a drone carries out an assassination or a mass-casualty attack. He talks about the strange responsibility of writing a fictional event that could plausibly happen next month, why he deliberately withholds visual detail so readers build the scene themselves, and what he learned reporting out how modern kidnappings and ransom negotiations actually work. The darker current running underneath is his read on American intelligence: the FBI is no longer the same place, the U.S. is jettisoning allies and hollowing out its agencies, and Silva poses the question a novelist is uniquely positioned to ask — if you're the GRU right now, where would you most want an asset placed? He notes that the best assets often don't know they're assets, that NATO held a crisis meeting about Trump, and that this is precisely the moment to be putting the screws to a vulnerable Putin, since Ukraine has victory in sight and isn't desperate for any deal.
The conversation turns personal when Chuck asks how Silva handles Israel's collapsing global reputation in a series built around an Israeli intelligence officer. Silva says the shift was entirely foreseeable, that he has no interest in writing about Gaza, and that what saddens him most is the "fortress Israel" mindset — a country founded on European-style socialist ideals now convinced it can go it alone, siloed from the world, while antisemitism surges globally in a way he warns only ever needs the right set of circumstances to reignite. He and Chuck range across the forces reshaping the century: giant corporations approaching the power of nation-states, a new generation of the ultra-wealthy who simply don't believe in philanthropy, AI's capacity to wipe out the knowledge economy, and Silva's conviction that the next great political crisis may be a climate-driven natural disaster — noting that the last major El Niño produced famines that killed millions, that today's migration patterns are already climate-driven, and that people are dying right now as a direct result of cutting humanitarian aid. He's unsparing on writing and AI), amused and appalled that Trump has turned the National Mall into a mess with a reflecting pool gone "Kermit green," and closes on the question every prolific novelist gets asked and rarely answers honestly: does he ever actually rest?
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to draw parallels between the arguments in modern American politics to the argument between Richard Nixon and Nikita Khrushchev in the infamous “kitchen debate” and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
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Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
02:15 Pensacola Beach is the home of the Blue Angels
03:15 Low flyover from Blue Angels generated massive controversy
03:45 Hegseth has allowed unsafe flyovers in the past
04:15 Hegseth’s leadership at the Pentagon has been awful
05:00 Hegseth used the flyover to try to “own the libs”
05:45 The low flyover at the beach was an honest mistake by the pilot
07:30 Online discourse about flyover was both sides trying to prove their point
08:30 Hegseth didn’t even bother to figure out the facts about the incident
09:00 The pilot felt terrible about the mistake, while Hegseth gloated
11:00 Why Chuck isn’t alarmed by Trump’s election denial primetime speech
11:45 Trump has tested constitutional boundaries unlike any other president
13:30 Trump’s endorsement of Mike Lindell says everything
14:00 Trump doesn’t have evidence of fraud, he turns to election denial cranks
15:15 Trump’s speech was a big fat nothingburger
16:30 Trump wanted government to interfere in the 2020 election
17:30 There’s no policy response to Trump’s allegations about foreign interference
18:30 China hasn’t received any sanction or response to allegations
20:00 Trump has lackeys cherry pick facts to try to sew mistrust in elections
22:00 It is extraordinarily difficult to overturn an American election
22:45 The electoral system is decentralized making it harder to meddle with
23:30 A president more disciplined than Trump would be a bigger worry
24:30 We need to repair structural weaknesses in the democracy
25:15 Trump is too lazy to become a dictator like Putin or Mao
26:00 Trump has his sycophants… but they all fear jail too
27:15 Trump wants other people to risk themselves to keep him in power
28:30 We’re on the road to a “forever war” in Iran
29:00 The plan is just to throw kinetic weight & hope the regime collapses
29:45 Iran’s whole strategy is asymmetric, targeting Gulf states
30:15 Iran is now targeting civilian survival infrastructure
30:45 Hitting desalination plants could create a yearslong crisis
31:30 Administration keeps doubling down on the same strategy
33:30 Nobody in Washington knows how to win the war
34:30 Pete Hegseth is an absolute clown… a fake soldier
35:00 The military testosterone discourse is both dumb and dangerous
36:00 Undersecretary Elbridge Colby has a big role in shaping policy
37:30 Colby wants America to retreat from the world & our allies
38:30 Colby has been embraced by JD Vance & the new right
39:15 Colby’s policies would be those of a President JD Vance
40:30 Allies realize they can be coerced by America
42:30 Colby trashed the “middle power” strategy of Mark Carney
43:00 Colby says nobody is entitled to the U.S. military industry
44:00 Buying military hardware is a 30 year bet on trusting an ally
45:00 Middle powers will look elsewhere to buy their military equipment
46:15 Hegseth wants to create testosterone driven “supertroopers”
47:00 Women aren’t being offered a similar screening
48:00 Jesse Watters comments on testosterone were beyond awful
48:30 Most watched cable host was making sexual assault jokes
49:15 Military has had a longstanding issue with sexual assault
50:00 Young men are marketed testosterone from influencers & now government
51:00 Taking outside testosterone shuts down natural production of it
51:45 Taking testosterone has major negative side effects
53:00 Our great military culture is being destroyed by Trump
53:30 The violence from ICE officers has been entirely predictable
54:15 DHS under Trump never deserves the benefit of the doubt
55:15 Officer involved in shooting had massive red flags in his background
56:00 ICE doesn’t appear to have any vetting process for recruits
1:00:00 Wisconsin governor’s race has become a political mess
1:01:00 Tony Evers didn’t build a strong infrastructure around him
1:01:30 Evers didn’t set up an obvious heir in the Democratic party
1:03:00 The party establishment hasn’t responded to all parts of the base
1:03:45 Wisconsin is one of the most misunderstood swing states
1:05:00 Democrats in Wisconsin have to make the political center comfortable
1:07:30 Arizona primary coming up on Tuesday
01:14:00 Daniel Silva joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:15:00 Gabriel Allon is ageless
01:16:45 How much do you put yourself into Gabriel Allon?
01:17:30 Gabriel’s character allows Daniel to pursue things he’s interested in
01:19:15 Potentially creating a spin-off series
01:20:30 Vibe of the book series is European art
01:21:15 How did you learn about modern kidnappings and negotiations
01:23:15 Not writing with great visual detail to allow readers to imagine it
01:24:15 We are going to have a major incident triggered by drones
01:25:15 Ukraine has become the drone specialists of the world
01:26:00 Drones will eventually carry out an assassination or mass casualty event
01:27:15 Any trepidation creating a fictional event that could actually happen?
01:28:15 There was an emergency drone incident in Copenhagen
01:28:45 Europeans are already very nervous about impacts of drones
01:29:30 There are cameras everywhere in modern society
01:30:45 The level of criminality & corruption in the world is staggering
01:32:00 The current FBI is no longer the same place
01:32:45 We are jettising allies and destroying our intelligence agencies
01:33:30 If you are the GRU… where would you want an asset to be?
01:34:30 There are different types of intelligence assets
01:35:00 Some of the best assets don’t realize they are assets
01:36:15 Crisis meeting held at NATO headquarters about Trump
01:39:30 We should be putting the screws to Putin right now, he’s vulnerable
01:40:15 Ukraine has victory in sight, they aren’t desperate for a deal
01:41:00 How do you tackle Israel’s reputation in the world in the books?
01:43:30 The changes to Israel’s reputation were foreseeable
01:44:00 Don’t want to write about the war in Gaza
01:45:00 Is all hope for a two state solution gone?
01:47:45 There’s a “fortress Israel” mindset, they think they can do it alone
01:48:15 Is Gabriel Allon still a zionist?
01:49:00 Israel was founded with tenets of European style socialism
01:50:00 It’s sad seeing Israel becoming so siloed from the world
01:51:30 There’s been a major resurgence of antisemitism
01:53:15 It only takes the right set of circumstances to reignite antisemitism
01:54:30 Giant corporations are becoming as powerful as nation states
01:56:00 The new generation of ultra wealthy don’t believe in philanthropy
01:56:45 AI has the ability to wipe out the knowledge economy
01:58:00 The next great political crisis might be a climate driven natural disaster
01:58:45 The last great El Nino created massive famine, killing millions
01:59:30 The current migration patterns are climate driven
02:00:00 People are dying as a direct result of cutting humanitarian aid
02:03:30 Trump has turned the national mall into a mess
02:04:15 The reflecting pool is now “Kermit green”
02:05:30 If you could write your next book about anything, what would it be?
02:06:30 Don’t think he could write non-fiction, too many novels to write
02:08:15 If you use AI to do your writing, then that isn’t writing
02:11:30 Anthropic CEO gave a reasoned answer to AI military applications
02:12:00 Could have an AI version of yourself that lives forever
02:13:15 Do you ever take a rest from writing?
02:16:30 ToddCast Time Machine July 24, 1959
02:17:00 Nixon and Krushchev host the “Kitchen Debate”
02:18:00 The countries were showing off their way of life - Capitalism vs Communism
02:18:45 Soviets set up a display in New York to show off their society
02:19:30 Khrushchev believed history would belong to the communists
02:20:00 The answer to the Soviet display was a model of an American home
02:20:45 The argument was that a middle class worker could afford that home
02:21:15 America showed it offered equality of opportunity, not outcome
02:22:00 Krushchev and Nixon debated knowing the world would hear it
02:23:00 Krushchev didn’t believe Americans actually lived that well
02:23:30 Nixon argued that competition inspired innovation and growth
02:25:00 Market capitalism proved to be the more dynamic economic system
02:25:30 There are echoes of the Kitchen Debate in modern American discourse
02:27:00 The Soviet Union disappeared, the debate hasn’t
02:27:15 Ask Chuck
02:27:30 Is MLB lockout avoidable? The state of baseball card collecting?
02:38:00 Is Trump’s erosion of norms a form of the incrementalism you champion?
02:41:30 What rights are D.C. & Puerto Rico residents still missing beside representation?
02:47:15 What goes into a decision to run for office?
02:50:45 MAGA just a rework of Reagan’s slogan?
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