Eurodollar University

It’s only been a little less than a month, but the economic and financial fallout from the Iran conflict is already taking shape as we search for that point of no return. Sentiment has dropped, economic activity is threatened, even stocks are now in correction territory across the board. While central bankers especially over in Europe are in full-blown inflation panic, it’s a much different story emerging from the real economy. This thing is quickly taking on all the characteristics of a full-blown oil shock. 
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. 
To watch a replay of our webinar, click below. 
https://youtube.com/live/dkgSJvjWs5M?feature=share
To take advantage of our limited-time Eurodollar University subscription offer to get access to all EDU materials, reports, and data, visit the link below:
https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offer
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https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Many top European bankers did not do themselves any favors when pressed on the private credit bust, preferring to hide behind semantics or deflect at every chance. One who stood out was Deutsch Bank’s vice chair of global macro who bluntly stated if it wasn’t for Iran the private credit crisis would be all anyone would be talking about right now. For whatever the political spin among the rest of them, European bank balance sheets don’t lie. Wait until you see what they’ve been up to. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. 
To watch a replay of our webinar, click below. 
https://youtube.com/live/dkgSJvjWs5M?feature=share
To take advantage of our limited-time Eurodollar University subscription offer to get access to all EDU materials, reports, and data, visit the link below:
https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offer
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Think private credit fears are overblown? Think again, says Deutsche
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/think-private-credit-fears-are-overblown-think-again-says-deutsche-20260327-p5zj5n
Private Credit Jitters Put European Banking Chiefs on Defense
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-19/private-credit-jitters-put-european-banking-chiefs-on-defense
ECB to Start Fresh Checks on Banks’ Private Credit Exposures
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/ecb-to-start-fresh-checks-on-banks-exposure-to-private-credit
German Business Outlook Sinks as Iran Puts Recovery ‘on Ice’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-25/german-business-outlook-sinks-as-iran-war-puts-recovery-on-ice
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The oil shock has moved way beyond merely being a price problem. The blockage at Hormuz has already created a very real physical shortage of fuel across much of Asia, and it’s now threatening to hit Europe according to the CEO of Shell Energy. It’s only been about four weeks but we’re seeing major disruptions already, from Australia to South Korea, India, Egypt. Among the hardest hit is the Philippines. There are reports today some airlines are being told to plan for rationing fuel in a few places. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. 
Sign up below:
https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web
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Australia Fuel Crunch Expands to Hundreds of Gas Stations
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/australia-fuel-shortages-expand-to-hundreds-of-service-stations
Securing Australia’s fuel supply
https://www.energy.gov.au/news/securing-australias-fuel-supply
Egypt mandates new closing time for malls and cafes to curb energy use
https://www.egyptindependent.com/egypt-mandates-new-closing-time-for-malls-and-cafes-to-curb-energy-use/
India Turns to Dirty Fuels to Fight Crippling Supply Squeeze
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-12/india-turns-to-dirty-fuels-to-fight-off-worst-supply-disruption-mmnfhzzs
Marcos promises 'flow of oil' as Philippines declares energy emergency
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3ex8ez3717o
Airline boss flags possible fuel rationing in Philippines as supplies dwindle
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3347804/airline-boss-flags-possible-fuel-rationing-philippines-supplies-dwindle
Signs of Jet Fuel Hoarding Emerge in Asia on Iran Oil Shock
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-25/signs-of-jet-fuel-hoarding-emerge-in-asia-after-iran-oil-shock
Shell Boss Warns Europe Is Next After Asia Suffers Fuel Squeeze
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/shell-boss-warns-europe-is-next-after-asia-suffers-fuel-squeeze
Oil giants raise the alarm over energy shortages as Iran war drags on
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/iran-war-oil-shell-totalenergies-energy-strait-of-hormuz.html
S&P Global March 2026 US PMIs
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/adc91b5cf42442cbb220d5b66b64ec7d
Indian police manage long lines as panic grows over fuel shortages
https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/indian-police-manage-long-lines-as-panic-grows-over-fuel-shortages
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another major development in private credit crisis - yes, it is a crisis now. Moody's downgraded a $13 billion KKR co-managed private credit fund, citing "asset quality challenges." This is a huge escalation for three key reasons we'll go over here.
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Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. 
Sign up below:
https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web
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Retail investors pull billions from private capital’s credit gold mine
https://www.ft.com/content/3103e960-5e54-4cff-a439-b61a77ab21bd?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Blackstone’s Gray: Market ‘noise’ fueled record redemptions from world’s largest private credit fund
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/blackstone-private-credit-fund.html
Moody's 
https://ratings.moodys.com/ratings-news/461835

Blackstone’s $83 billion BCred fund just reported its first monthly loss due to actual credit problems. However, it’s never credit losses that kill you; it’s always the forced selling, the liquidations. Financial crises begin with small credit losses and then snowball into something far greater because the issues here aren’t numbers on a spreadsheet and seemingly reasonable expected loss calculations. This all comes down to trust and information. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. 
Sign up below:
https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web
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Jon Gray Blackstone President
https://x.com/blackstone/status/2035088934753935648?
Blackstone Private Credit Fund Has First Monthly Loss Since 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-20/blackstone-private-credit-fund-has-first-monthly-loss-since-2022
Private Credit Firm Ares Holds Town Hall to Reassure Staff on Market Volatility 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/ares-holds-townhall-to-reassure-staff-on-market-uncertainties
Ares CEO Says UBS Call on 15% Private Debt Default ‘Absolutely Wrong’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/arougheti-says-15-private-debt-default-call-absolutely-wrong
New York Fed Sells Remainder of Maiden Lane LLC Securities; Approximately $2.5 Billion Net Gain Generated for U.S. Public from the Portfolio
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/markets/2018/an180918
Maiden Lane Transactions
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/maidenlane.html
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU