The Fourcast

The war in Ukraine appears to have entered a new phase, as Kyiv has launched increasingly ambitious long-range strikes deep inside Russia, put mounting pressure on Crimea and sought to bring the war closer to ordinary Russians and Vladimir Putin. 
But now the Kremlin is hitting back hard. In a missile attack on Kyiv this week, at least 17 people were killed. Now there’s reports of a Ukrainian plane in Leipzig, Germany, being targeted by an explosive-laden drone. It’s not clear who was behind the attack but reporting suggests it could be Russia. So are we witnessing a dangerous new phase of escalation? 
On this episode of the Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by economist Timothy Ash from Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia programme.

Just a few months ago, Nigel Farage and Reform UK looked unstoppable. After sweeping the local elections and topping opinion polls, many believed Reform was on course for government. But has the momentum already begun to fade?
A string of controversies - including police investigations, questions over party finances, and a £5 million donation from a Thailand-based cryptocurrency billionaire - has put Reform under growing pressure. With the party slipping in the polls, are these scandals finally cutting through with voters, or is this just another setback Farage will survive?
On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Tim Ross from Politico, former Reform UK spokesperson Gawain Towler and Labour strategist Claire Ainsley to examine what's gone wrong for Reform, whether Andy Burnham has given Labour a route back to power, why the Greens are also losing ground, and what the latest polling tells us about the future of British politics.

After around 50,000 migrants crossed into Spain’s North African territory of Ceuta, far-right politicians across Europe quickly branded the events an "invasion." But with most migrants already returning to Morocco and UK illegal boat crossings dropping to a five-year low—down 43% compared to 2025—what is actually driving the debate around European border control?
On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Director of the Migration Observatory Madeleine Sumption, Director of Politics at Ipsos Keiran Pedley, and Austrian migration expert Gerald Knaus.
They discuss whether the incident in Ceuta could drive a new surge for the far-right across Europe, how the UK could be affected and if immigration is still the hot topic for voters.

Despite his job seemingly looking assured just a few weeks ago, Gianni Infantino’s position as President of FIFA is now in jeopardy.
With the footballing federations of Europe, North America and Asia all rejecting Infantino’s plans to sell off part of the World Cup to private investors, pressure is piling on Infantino. Even the new Prime Minister Andy Burnham says Infantino is the “wrong man” to lead FIFA.
On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Channel 4’s Sports Reporter, Jordan Jarrett-Bryan, as well as Abiola Ijasanmi the former Chief Operating Officer from the Confederation of African Football.
They discuss whether Infantino has badly mis-read the situation and - could he actually could be forced out of this job?

The war between the United States and Iran has spread across the Middle East. 
Fresh strikes in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Egypt, alongside escalating Houthi attacks on international shipping, have raised fears that the region is entering a dangerous new phase. With Washington intensifying its military campaign and Iran relying on its network of allied militias, is this becoming a wider regional war?
On this episode of The Fourcast: Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by Professor Madawi al-Rasheed from the London School of Economics Middle East Centre. They discuss why the Houthis are stepping up attacks, whether Saudi Arabia is being pulled into the fighting despite its efforts to avoid it, how Iraqi militias could become a new flashpoint, and whether the US has a long-term strategy, or is being drawn into another prolonged Middle East war.
Is there still a path to de-escalation, or are we witnessing the beginning of a conflict that could engulf the wider region?