The Fourcast

A US carrier group is racing toward Iran. Trump’s statements are swinging between threats and vague offers of a nuclear deal. Inside Tehran, unrest is spreading, and the regime’s most powerful security institutions are showing strain. But how much do Western intelligence services really know about what comes next, and how dangerous is this moment?
In this episode of The Fourcast, Paul McNamara talks to David McCloskey, a former CIA analyst who spent years covering Syria, Iraq and Iran from inside the Agency. He explains why Trump is harder to predict than the regimes analysts usually study, how Israel has been able to penetrate Iran’s security apparatus, and what a US strike package would actually look like.

Keir Starmer is in Beijing meeting Xi Jinping, as Britain looks to reset ties with China. Is this a glimpse of a new world order - one where America’s traditional allies start to look elsewhere? 
For some, it’s an inevitable response to the breakdown of the US-led order that could usher in a more balanced world that reflects growing power outside of the West. For others, it’s a dangerous shift accelerated by President Trump, that increases the risk of great-power war.
To discuss, I’m joined by Robert Kagan, a staff writer at The Atlantic and Washington foreign-policy insider whose ideas have shaped US strategy for decades, author and scholar Amitav Acharya, who has long criticised the US-led world order, and Nathalie Tocc, professor of practice at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Europe, and a senior fellow at Bocconi University’s Institute for European Policymaking.

Keir Starmer has blocked Andy Burnham’s bid to run in the Gorton and Denton by-election, but has he just delayed the leadership challenge many in Westminster believe is inevitable?

If there is a challenge, does the Labour Party risk descending into the same internal conflicts that helped bring down the Conservatives?

Starmer's latest foreign destination is China for a meeting with President Xi but is travelling the globe as an international statesman staving off restless Labour MPs?

Meanwhile, he says his relentless focus is the cost-of-living crisis but are the public, or his MPs buying it?

On the latest episode of the Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by our Senior Political Correspondent Paul McNamara, the I-paper's chief political commentator Kitty Donaldson, and Political Editor of the Liverpool Echo, Liam Thorp.

The government is weighing up whether or not to follow in Australia’s footsteps and ban social media for under-16s. Supporters argue that online safety efforts have failed and that children are being exposed to increasingly harmful content. Critics warn that a ban would isolate young people, let tech companies off the hook, and create a dangerous cliff-edge at 16.
Companies across the Big Tech sector have consistently said that protecting children is a priority, as is reducing the spread of disinformation on their platforms.
In today’s episode of The Fourcast, Cathy Newman speaks to Professor Kaitlyn Regehr, author of Smartphone Nation, and digital journalist Sophia Smith Galer, about what a ban would really achieve, whether regulation can ever keep pace with the platforms, and how algorithms amplify harm in ways that governments, and parents, struggle to control.

It was hoped the fall of Syria's former dictator Bashar al-Assad would usher in a period of stability, unity and perhaps - eventually - democracy.

But now the country enters a new and unpredictable phase as President Ahmed Al-Sharaa tightens his grip on power.In the north-east of the country the Kurds were the West’s key ally against Islamic State.

Now their control in the region is collapsing after days of fierce battles with government forces. A tentative ceasefire is in place but the fallout is far from clear, including the fate of thousands of ISIS prisoners and their families who were in Kurdish-controlled camps.Regional powers like Turkey and Iran, as well as China, Russia and the West are also jostling for influence.

Could these developments finally bring a period of calm and stability in Syria or just open the door to new dangers?
In this episode of The Fourcast, Jackie Long was joined by Channel 4 News International Editor Lindsey Hilsum and Lina Khatib, Principal Analyst at geopolitical foresight company ExTrac.