The Fourcast

The ceasefire may be holding, but the indicators beneath the surface suggest the Middle East remains dangerously unstable.
As internet access slowly returns in Iran and diplomatic channels reopen, questions are growing about whether the US, Iran and Israel are genuinely moving towards a deal, or simply regrouping before the next escalation. Donald Trump is pushing for a wider regional settlement built around the Abraham Accords, while Iran is demanding access to frozen assets and Israel continues strikes in Lebanon.
In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Mark Urban examine the signals analysts are watching most closely: the nature of recent US and Iranian strikes, the strategic importance of Lebanon’s ceasefire, and the growing pressure for political progress before the conflict spirals again.
They’re joined by Lina Khatib from Chatham House.

Sir Tony Blair has entered Labour’s civil war - and his message is brutal: changing the leader means nothing if the party still has no real plan for Britain.
In a sweeping essay, the former Prime Minister delivers a scathing critique of Keir Starmer’s government and questions whether Labour has coherent answers on growth, tax, welfare, Brexit, net zero and Britain’s place in the world. Blair argues the solution is a return to the “radical centre” - but what does that actually mean in 2026?
In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy examines whether Labour’s crisis is really about leadership at all. Would replacing Starmer with Wes Streeting or Andy Burnham solve anything? Should Labour move closer to Donald Trump or back towards Europe? And if the party forces a leadership contest now, does it risk opening the door to Nigel Farage and Reform UK?
Joining Krishnan are former Tony Blair speechwriter Phil Collins and Labour MP Zubir Ahmed, a supporter of Wes Streeting who resigned from government earlier this month, and Stewart Wood who was an adviser to Gordon Brown when he was Prime Minister and Ed Miliband when he was Labour leader.

Donald Trump says Iran must choose between signing a deal or facing fresh US strikes - but despite the threats, no attacks have come. So is this another case of “TACO Trump”, or are we actually watching the outlines of a peace deal emerge behind the scenes?
In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Mark Urban examine rising oil prices, shifting sanctions policy, and growing pressure from Gulf states desperate to avoid another escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.
They discuss whether the US and UK are quietly easing pressure on Russian oil as energy markets tighten, what could happen to Iran’s uranium stockpile under a deal, and whether Trump and Netanyahu are still truly aligned as tensions grow over Israel’s conduct and strategy.

How bad is the economic hit from the Iran war going to be? If the talk around price caps on essential food items, and lifting sanctions on Russian oil and gas are anything to go by, then it could be very bad indeed. 
The government says any price freeze will be voluntary after supermarket bosses called the idea ‘preposterous’ and ‘nonsense.’ But plans to continue to allow diesel and jet fuel to be imported into the UK from Russian oil refined in other countries will go ahead. The Conservatives call this a ‘betrayal of Ukraine.’ 
On this episode of the Fourcast, Jackie Long is joined by Channel 4 News' Economics Reporter Neil Macdonald, the economist Vicky Pryce and Tom Keatinge, the founding director at the Centre for Finance and Security at the think tank RUSI.

The World Health Organization has declared the latest Ebola outbreak an international emergency, as cases continue to rise in the Democratic Republic of Congo and neighbouring Uganda - including infections reported in the capital, Kampala.
The current outbreak is being driven by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which there are currently no approved vaccines or treatments. Fears are growing that this could escalate into a crisis on the scale of the devastating 2014 West Africa outbreak, which killed more than 11,000 people.
In this episode of The Fourcast, we ask how serious the threat really is, whether the world is better prepared than it was a decade ago, and what lessons were learned from previous epidemics. Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Channel 4 News health editor Victoria MacDonald and Dr Oliver Johnson, who led an Ebola isolation unit in Sierra Leone during the 2014 outbreak.