The Fourcast

Welcome to Fourcast Indicators on the Iran War with Matt Frei and defence and intelligence analyst Mark Urban. Fourcast Indicators looks at the signals that analysts watch most closely - the tell-tale signs that suggest imminent and significant change may be coming.
This week we take a deep dive into the intelligence, military logistics, and the geopolitical fallout of the bombardment of Iran. We explore Donald Trump's domestic political struggles and the nervous reactions of the global markets. We also tackle the biggest strategic question of all: where is Iran's 440kg of enriched uranium and were they really just two weeks away from a nuclear bomb?

Social media giants Meta and Google have been found liable for building platforms that are addictive and a court has ordered them to pay millions in damages, but both firms say the case oversimplifies a complex issue and are expected to appeal the ruling.

In this episode of The Fourcast, we break down the case and what it could mean for the future of Big Tech. Is this a genuine turning point - a potential “Big Tobacco moment” for Silicon Valley - or just another legal challenge that tech giants will fight and ultimately move past?

Ciaran Jenkins was joined by tech journalist Chris Stokel-Walker and former Twitter head of news and journalism partnerships Vivianne Schiller.

President Trump is talking about deals to end the war with Iran, but Tehran says it’s “fake news” as they continue to exchange attacks with Israel.
So where does this war go from here, and what does an endgame actually look like?
On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei was joined by Dr Siavush Randjbar-Daemi, associate professor Modern Middle Eastern History at the University of St Andrews and retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery.

Is Donald Trump backing down from a potential strike on Iran - or is this a strategic pivot? In this episode of the Fourcast, we unpack the latest twists in US-Iran tensions as Trump insists talks are “good and productive,” despite Tehran claiming a firm warning forced a retreat. With the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of the crisis and global markets reacting fast, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Are American boots on the ground inevitable in Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s war with Iran? With reports that over 2,000 Marines are being deployed, questions are growing over Washington’s strategy and whether the president has a clear plan. 
Could the US attempt something as bold as seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s critical oil hub?
On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Nate Swanson, former National Security Council Iran desk official, and investigative journalist Ronen Bergman to unpack the latest developments and what comes next.