The Fourcast

The ceasefire between the US and Iran is holding - for now. But beneath the surface, the signals tell a more uncertain story.
In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei is joined by defence analyst Mark Urban and International Editor Lindsey Hilsum to examine the key signs shaping what happens next. From US military build-up in the region to Iran’s strategic use of the Strait of Hormuz, the question is whether this fragile pause is the start of a settlement, or simply a prelude to further conflict.
They explore the shifting balance of power, the role of regional players like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and the growing pressure on Israel as the war’s dynamics evolve. There is also a deeper question at play: what this conflict reveals about the limits of American power, and the future of global trade routes.

Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has come into force, but ships are reportedly still getting through, including a Chinese linked tanker.
So, what is actually going on right now? How long could this blockade last and what happens if American forces try to seize a Chinese linked vessel? 
On this episode of the Fourcast, Alex Thomson is joined by retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery and Times columnist and contributing editor Cindy Yu.

Hungary has woken up to a political earthquake. After more than a decade in power, Viktor Orbán has been defeated, with Péter Magyar securing a historic landslide victory in an election seen as a major test for democracy in Europe.
It’s a slap in the face for Donald Trump - after JD Vance called on Hungarians to support their incumbent leader. But did his attempt to raise support for Orban do the exact opposite?
Could this mark a turning point not just for Hungary, but for Europe more broadly? And does this result signal a shift away from populist politics - or is the bigger story still to come?
In this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Hungarian journalist and disinformation expert Szilárd Teczár and political analyst Mujtaba Rahman to unpack how this happened - and what it means for the future of Hungary - and Europe.

What is really going on in Lebanon? Less than 24 hours after Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran, Israel launched a massive wave of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah across the country.
Iran says Israel is violating the terms of the ceasefire - so could the peace talks set to be held tomorrow in Islamabad collapse before they’ve even started? And is this exactly what Israel wants? 
On this episode of the Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined from Beirut by Lebanese journalist Rania Abouzeid and in London by Channel 4 News foreign correspondent Secunder Kermani, who’s just returned from Lebanon.

It’s uncertain whether the ceasefire Donald Trump brokered with Iran will hold after Israel launched a massive barrage of airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon leading Tehran to reclose the Strait of Hormuz. 
US vice president JD Vance, who is leading the US delegation to Islamabad in Pakistan, has acknowledged that the ceasefire is “fragile”. 
So is there any chance it could lead to a last peace? Is this a moment where a global economic crisis was averted at the last minute, or just postponed? 
On this episode of the Fourcast Indicators Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by defence and intelligence analyst Mark Urban and Channel 4 News Economics Editor Helia Ebrahimi.