The Fourcast

A potentially “supersized” El Niño is forecast for this winter - and scientists warn it could bring more extreme weather, from droughts and heatwaves to devastating floods.
But what happens when El Niño collides with a world already being reshaped by climate change?
On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy asks whether governments, businesses and the global financial system are prepared for the shocks ahead.
He speaks to Liz Stephens, Professor of Climate Risks and Resilience at the University of Reading and an anticipatory action expert at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, who explains how early warning systems can help communities prepare before disaster strikes, and economist Dr Matthew Winning, from UCL’s Institute for Sustainable Resources, looks at the wider economic consequences - from food prices and supply chains to insurance, investment and our pensions.
As extreme weather becomes harder to predict, should we rethink the way we plan for disasters? And is it already too late to rely on the old idea of a “one-in-100-year” event?

Hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough have faded as retaliatory strikes flare up once again across the Middle East. And with Donald Trump warning of further military escalation, is the world at risk of yet another economic shock?
So what’s behind the new wave of strikes in the Middle East? And could Iran be at risk of losing control of its ultimate bargaining chip - the Strait of Hormuz.
In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Mark Urban break down the geopolitical signals shaping this war. Joined by the economist Neil Shearing from Capital Economics, they discuss global markets, inflation, and whether an exit strategy exists for either side.

Pakistan is the latest country to hit back after the White House threatened countries who trade with Iran. China has already said it won’t be taking orders from America. So is this another failed bid by Donald Trump to bend Iran and its backers to his will? 
Or could this actually work? Several senior Iranian leaders have recently acknowledged the economic pain that the country and its people are feeling. 
On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Mohammed Marandi, a professor at Tehran University and a former adviser to Iran’s nuclear negotiating team to get a view from inside Iran.

Meta has agreed to a landmark settlement over allegations that its platforms harmed children and teenagers - raising a much bigger question about how social media is designed and regulated.
On this episode of The Fourcast, we look at what the settlement actually means for Instagram and Facebook users, whether other social media companies could be forced to follow suit, and whether this could fundamentally change the way we use social media.
Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by visiting professor at Stony Brook University School of Journalism and author of ‘Hot Type’ Jeff Jarvis and Associate Professor in Digital Humanities at University College London, Kaitlyn Regehr.
In a statement released after the settlement, Meta said the agreement is not an admission of wrongdoing, but a new framework designed to give parents more control and teenagers stronger protections. It says the measures will only work if TikTok and YouTube adopt the same rules, because teenagers move between multiple platforms.

Britain is doubling down on its support for Ukraine, backing a deal that could see Ukraine produce its own long-range missiles as Russia intensifies its attacks.
But as Moscow ramps up its missile production and warns of further mobilisation, Ukraine is facing growing pressure on its air defences and ammunition supplies. Meanwhile, questions remain over whether Europe can fill the gap if US support continues to weaken.
On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru Murthy is joined by Channel 4 News International Editor Lindsey Hilsum and Guardian foreign correspondent Luke Harding to discuss Britain's growing role in the war, the state of the battlefield and whether Ukraine's allies are becoming weary of the conflict.
Could long-range Ukrainian missiles change the war? Is Russia winning the war of attrition? And how far is Britain prepared to go to support Ukraine?