Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Dr. Tyler Goodspeed chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 202-21. During his tenure on the council, he also chaired the Economic Policy Committee at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
From 2021 through 2023, Tyler was a Director and Chief Economist at Greenmantle, a New York and London-based macroeconomic and geopolitical consulting firm. The author of four books on economic history, Tyler holds a PhD in economics from Cambridge University and a PhD in history from Harvard University,
He is currently a Senior Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute in London and a member of the Geoeconomic Council of Advisers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.  

All views are his own and not any of the organisations he is affiliated with. 

In this podcast, we discuss:
The "Boom-Bust" Myth 
Recessions as "Apophonies"
Expansions Do Not Die of Old Age
Policy Hubris
The 1785 Structural Break
Supply Shocks as Choke Points
Misnaming the 2001 Recession
The 2008 Energy and Mortgage Intersection
Impairment of Creative Destruction
Fidelity to Long-Run Trends

Tomasz Nadrowski is a portfolio manager at the Amvest Terraden Critical Minerals Fund. He was a former Director at the World Economic Forum and Vice President of Business Development at AngloGold Ashanti, then the world's largest gold producer. Tomasz has spent over fifteen years managing commodity and mining equity portfolios for hedge funds and family offices across the U.S., Europe, and Asia. 

He is fluent in seven languages and a regular contributor to Oxford Analytica. He combines deep industry knowledge with a strategic understanding of how resources, markets, and power intersect in today's shifting geopolitical landscape. He is also the host of the podcast Tyranny Today. In this podcast, we discuss:
Geopolitics vs. the Commodity Cycle
China's VAT Rebate and Value-Added Strategy
Critical Choke Points: Rare Earths, Graphite, and Gallium
Regulatory Roadblocks and the Stigma of "Dirty" Mining
The Abdication of Western Capital Markets
Human Capital Gaps and the "Octogenarian Engineer" Problem
Geoeconomic Pricing: Disincentivising New Capacity
From "Just-in-Time" to "Just-in-Case" Production
Japan's "House of Brick" Model for Resilience
The Mineral War and the "Soul" of AI
A Shift Toward Oligopolistic Competition

Nader is Argus' Middle East editor, based in Dubai. Argus is a leading independent provider of global energy and commodity market intelligence. Nader has more than 15 years of experience covering oil and gas in the region, and today heads up the company's Middle East and OPEC coverage. Prior to moving to Argus in 2015, Nader spent five years with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) weekly in Cyprus. In this podcast, we discuss:
Inevitable Escalation with Iran 
Iran's Decentralised Resilience
The Rise of Mojtaba
Regional Retaliation Strategy
The Hormuz Choke Point
Modern Tanker War Risks
8 Million Barrels Offline
Limits of the Global SPR
Sentiment-Driven Volatility
Houthi Autonomy and the Red Sea

Alex has 20 years of experience at the intersection of finance and data. He has been a global macro investor at firms like Bridgewater Associates and a proprietary volatility trader at Lehman Brothers. Prior to his career as a data-driven speculator, Alex received an MBA from Stanford Business School, an MPhil in Economics (Game Theory) from the University of Oxford, and a BA (Hons) in Economics from McGill University. In this podcast, we discuss:
Fantasy Baseball to Prop Trading
Diversification as the "Free Lunch"
Gold vs. The Chinese Credit Bubble
Silver as the "Money that Generates Electricity"
The "Long API, Short Slides" Thesis
China's Sceptical Data
Copper vs. Iron Divergence
The Future of Systematic Investing

Raphaël Gallardo is Chief Economist within the Cross-Asset team at Carmignac. Carmignac is a leading European investment management boutique established in 1989, with over EUR 40 bn in assets under management. Raphaël joined them in 2018. He started his career in 1997 at BNP Paribas, where he spent ten years as a Quantitative Analyst within the Risk Department, a Country-risk Economist, a Financial Engineer specialising in interest rate risk, and ultimately a cross-asset strategist. In 2007, he joined Axa IM as Head of Macroeconomic Research and moved to Rothschild & Cie Gestion in 2012 to occupy the same position. From 2013 to 2018, he was Cross-Asset Strategist at Ostrum Asset Management. Raphaël holds an Engineering Degree from École Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris. In this podcast, we discuss:
Austrian Economics Framework
Three "Wobbling" Bubbles
The "Sad" AI Bubble
Trump Risk Parity Portfolio
Spain's "Virtuous Circle"
France's Fiscal Existential Risk
Japan's Vicious Circle
China's Dual Economy
Death of the Risk-Free Asset
2026–2027 Outlook