Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Andrew Small, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, to discuss how Chinese industrial overcapacity is threatening European deindustrialisation—and what Europe can do about it.

Over the summer, Europe’s approach to China shifted markedly. At the June 2026 European Council, leaders were largely united in seeing the surge of Chinese exports as a serious threat to European industry. They also tasked the European Commission to make one last attempt to negotiate a trade deal with Beijing.

Days before the talks began, a leaked paper co-authored by France and Germany set out a tougher agenda for the EU’s China policy. On October 9th, after two days of negotiations in Beijing, the EU’s trade and economic security commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, announced that the first result was volume limits on hybrid vehicles, the biggest problem for Europe’s car industry, and that China has accepted the proposal.

This week, the European Council in Brussels is returning to the issue, and Mark and Andrew discuss where the EU-China trade talks stand. What is behind the Franco-German paper? What options does the EU have to deal with the China shock 2.0? And what is at stake for Europe’s economy?

This podcast episode was recorded on October 16th 2026.

Bookshelf:
Institutional Genes: Origins of China's Institutions and Totalitarianism, by Chenggang Xu
The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms, by Andrew Small
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Guntram Wolf, senior fellow at Bruegel and professor of economics at the Université Libre de Bruxelles, and Pierre Heilbronn, former vice-president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and France’s former special envoy for Ukraine’s relief and reconstruction. Together, they discuss the European debate around the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).

Every seven years, EU member states agree on the MFF—but talks to plan the 2028-2034 edition have created two camps. On one side is the “friends of cohesion”, who want to protect money for poorer regions and farmers. On the other is the “frugals”, net contributors led by Germany that want a smaller budget focused on defence and competitiveness.

On October 10th, the Irish presidency tabled a compromise to cut the commission’s proposal of almost €2 trillion by about 8%, at the cost of competitiveness, foreign aid and emergency funds. It would leave farmer subsidies and cohesion funds untouched, however. EU leaders are now meeting in Brussels on October 15th-16th, with the MFF negotiations expected to reach a decisive phase in the coming weeks.

In this week’s episode, Mark, Guntram and Pierre discuss how the EU budget is put together, and why this round is proving so hard to close. Can the two camps find common ground? Where do negotiations stand today, and what could help clear the way to an agreement? And what is at stake for Europeans competitiveness?

Bookshelf:

On Xi Jinping. How Xi's Marxist Nationalism is Shaping China and the World, by Kevin Rudd
A Certain Idea of France: The Life of Charles de Gaulle, by Julian Jackson
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In late September, 87-year-old Maricarmen Abascal was evicted from the Madrid flat she had lived in for seven decades, sparking nationwide protests over Spain’s housing crisis. Pedro Sánchez’s government responded with two emergency housing decrees which Congress rejected on October 2nd. Three days later, the prime minister dissolved parliament and called for a snap election on November 29th. Sánchez has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat before, but the polls are pointing towards a PP–Vox coalition that could bring the far right into government for the first time since the return of democracy.

In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Carla Hobbs, the head of Madrid office and policy fellow at ECFR, along with Nacho Torreblanca, a distinguished policy fellow at the geoeconomics and technology programme and senior adviser to the Madrid office. Together, they discuss whether Sánchez’s gamble will pay off and what it means for Europe. Why did Sánchez call the election now? Where do the polls stand? And what are the central issues that Spaniards will vote on?

Bookshelf:

“Solos en el mundo” by Arancha González Laya
“Nexus: A Brief History of Information Networks from the Stone Age to AI” by Yuval Noah Harari

Update: This podcast was recorded on October 7th. Since then, Maricarmen Abascal died in hospital at the age of 87. In addition, Spain’s trade unions have called a general strike over housing for November 11th, just weeks before the vote.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In September 2025, Binyamin Netanyahu told Israelis their country was in “a sort of isolation” and would need to become a “super-Sparta”: its economy would have “autarkic characteristics” and its arms industry would be able to produce what it needs. This vision of Israel is a long way from the close ties to the West the country’s founders foresaw. Beth Oppenheim’s new web special for ECFR argues that illiberal and ethno-nationalist forces are remaking Israel in their image, in a shift that runs deeper than electoral politics—and that will outlast Netanyahu.
In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Beth, policy fellow with ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, along with Ariel David, PhD candidate at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and Neri Zilber, a journalist and analyst who covers Israel for the Financial Times and hosts the “Israel Policy Forum” podcast. Together, they discuss competing ideas of Israel and what they mean for Europe. What are the big ideas defining national identity and politics in Israel? What is Israel’s vision for the Middle East? And how do Israel’s ascendant camps see Europe?

Bookshelf:
“The ideas of Israel” by Beth Oppenheim
“Mother Mary Comes to Me” by Arundhati Roy
The works of Michel Houellebecq
“6:29 Anatomy of a Failure” by Amos Harel
“The World of Yesterday” by Stefan Zweig
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy fellow at ECFR and a fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution in Washington, to discuss a recent policy brief for ECFR, authored alongside Evren Balta, professor of international relations at Özyeğin University in Istanbul.

In their brief, Aslı and Evren argue that Turkey is an “embedded outsider”. It maintains relations with Moscow and other Western adversaries, but is also a NATO state with the alliance’s second-largest army; it supports Ukraine and is technically an applicant for EU membership. And nowhere has this embedded outsider status been more apparent than at the NATO summit hosted by Recep Tayyip Erdogan in July. The Turkish president gave visiting leaders a Turkish-made revolver, loaded with live ammunition: a gift no one could accept from an ally no one can place.

In this week’s episode, Mark and Aslı explore Turkey’s unique position in European and global politics. Together they discuss Turkish autonomy, its relationship with NATO, Russia and the EU, and how Europe can better engage with such a complex actor. How aligned—or misaligned—is Turkey with its Western allies? What role does it play in Ukrainian and Black Sea diplomacy? And to what extent does a shared agenda exist between Ankara and Europe?

Bookshelf:
An outsider within: The paradox of the Europe-Turkey relationship by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Evren Balta
Theo of Golden by Allen Levi
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.