First Friday: Why Americans Are More Pessimistic Than Ever
#622: #622: The headlines said America added 147,000 jobs in June. The reality? Private companies actually cut 33,000 positions.
Grad students just lost access to unlimited borrowing. Parent PLUS loans now cap at $65,000. And tariffs are about to jump as high as 70 percent.
Everything is changing at once — taxes, tariffs, student loans, and immigration policy. And data from the University of Michigan says that consumers feel more pessimistic than they did six months ago.
Welcome to the 4th of July First Friday episode. On America's 249th birthday, we unpack these economic stories.
Timestamps:
Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths.
(0:00) Introduction
(1:19) Historical trivia about the Declaration of Independence
(2:28) Three presidents died on July 4th — statistical improbability explained
(4:24) Trump signs domestic policy bill extending 2017 tax cuts
(6:13) Student loan changes — borrowing caps and repayment plan eliminations
(8:53) Tariff pause expires July 9th, new rates announced
(12:00) Original tariff rates and Lesotho example breakdown
(16:26) June jobs report headlines versus private sector reality
(22:54) ADP reports private job losses while government hiring grows
(26:46) Consumer confidence drops 18 percent since December
(30:59) Inflation expectations versus actual 2.4 percent rate
(34:19) Fed takes wait-and-see approach amid policy uncertainty
(36:58) Labor market stagnation mirrors Federal Reserve strategy
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Q&A: Which Investments Should Go Into Which Accounts?
DOWNLOAD the FREE Cheat Sheet: ASSET LOCATION MADE SIMPLE at affordanything.com/assetlocation
#621: Jared is attracted to the favorable terms of the annuity plan that his employer offers, but he’s hesitant to pay the opportunity cost of locking up his money now. What should he do?
An anonymous caller is struggling to find the efficient frontier with only three funds to choose from in his Thrift Savings Plan. Is there any hope for him?
Jack feels great about the funds in his portfolio, but he’s losing sleep over how to apportion them between his taxable, pre-tax and Roth accounts. What’s the best tax strategy for him?
Former financial planner Joe Saul-Sehy and I tackle these three questions in today’s episode.
Enjoy!
P.S. Got a question? Leave it at https://affordanything.com/voicemail
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The Hidden Cost of Replacing You at Work, with “Money with Katie” host Katie Gatti Tassin
#620: You probably think your value to your employer equals your paycheck. Katie Gatti Tassin has news for you — you're worth way more than that.
The host of "Money with Katie" recently joined us to break down a framework that could change how you negotiate forever. Her formula is simple: Your worth equals your market rate plus what it costs to replace you, raised to the power of your unique skills.
Most people focus only on market rate — what similar jobs pay in your area. You can find this through salary transparency laws, LinkedIn data, or job postings. But that's just the starting point.
The real eye-opener? Replacement costs. When you leave, companies face recruiting fees, interview time, onboarding expenses, and lost productivity. For mid-level roles, recruiters charge 15 to 25 percent of your first-year salary. Senior positions cost even more — headhunters for executive roles charge 25 to 35 percent of total compensation.
A company replacing an $80,000 employee might pay $20,000 just in recruiter fees. For a $200,000 executive, that jumps to $70,000. Add training time and the productivity gap while they search, and replacement costs can hit 50 to 200 percent of annual salary.
Then there's your "special sauce" — the unique value you bring. Maybe you have deep client relationships, specialized skills, or institutional knowledge that would take months for a replacement to develop.
Katie learned this framework through her own career pivots. She started as an ad copywriter but shifted into user experience writing after working closely with a UX designer who told her the pay was much better. That internal pivot positioned her for an external move that doubled her compensation from $70,000 to $140,000.
Katie had to catch a flight — she visited our New York studios during her book launch tour — but the conversation covers practical tactics for earning more and building wealth.
For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode620
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Q&A: My Company Is Going Public and I Have No Idea What to Do – Plus, Should I Fire My Advisor?
#619: Dave is no longer happy with his financial advisor, but he’s nervous about switching over to self-management after being completely hands-off for so long. What should he do?
An anonymous caller keeps hearing about the benefits of Cost Segregation for investment property. What is it? And should he apply this strategy to his recently acquired duplex?
Another anonymous caller is eagerly anticipating a windfall from his employer’s upcoming IPO. How should he prepare for this, and what happens if it fails?
Former financial planner Joe Saul-Sehy and I tackle these three questions in today’s episode.
Enjoy!
P.S. Got a question? Leave it at https://affordanything.com/voicemail
For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode619
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How to Retire at 50 While Supporting Aging Parents, with Frank Vasquez
DOWNLOAD the RISK PARITY PORTFOLIO CHEAT SHEET at affordanything.com/riskparity
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#618: Frank Vasquez watched his parents, ages 91 and 96, struggle financially in retirement.
They were immigrants. His dad was a physician. They raised five kids. They retired in the early 1990’s. But by 2009, they ran out of money.
When Frank was 45, in 2009, his parents would call asking for money to help make ends meet.
This reality hit Frank hard and sparked a decade-long quest to crack the code on sustainable retirement withdrawals.
At age 45, Frank set an ambitious goal: retire in his early 50’s while still supporting his parents financially.
The problem? Most financial experts simply told people to spend less rather than optimize their portfolios for higher withdrawal rates. Frank wasn't satisfied with that answer.
You'll hear how Frank discovered that many retirees leave money on the table by holding too much cash or following overly conservative allocation models.
Through extensive research, he found a sweet spot for stock allocation that maximizes safe withdrawal rates — something most traditional advisors miss entirely.
Frank walks us through his approach to portfolio construction, explaining why he believes in balancing growth and value stocks while keeping bonds limited to US treasuries for recession protection.
He breaks down the math behind safe withdrawal rates and reveals why property taxes pose a hidden threat to retirement security as home values climb.
You'll learn about risk parity strategies, macro allocation principles, and why diversification across uncorrelated assets creates more stability than traditional 60/40 portfolios.
The conversation covers Frank's Golden Ratio Portfolio, a structured approach to asset allocation designed specifically for the retirement drawdown phase.
Frank figured out how to fix what went wrong with his parents' retirement. His approach could help you avoid the same mistakes.
Timestamps:
Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths.
(00:00) Introduction
(01:04) Frank's parents' financial struggles
(05:21) Finding a sustainable retirement portfolio
(10:19) Learning from market crashes
(13:25) Different types of investments
(25:10) Building the perfect portfolio
(32:25) Frank's real-world example
(39:24) Property taxes and retirement goals
(44:21) Safe withdrawal rate basics
(45:22) How much to put in stocks
(51:03) Why bonds matter
(54:23) Adding alternative investments
(1:00:14) The Golden Ratio Portfolio
(1:12:11) Investment strategies for retirement
(1:15:44) Taking money out of your portfolio
(1:18:31) Taxes on withdrawals
(1:21:14) Where to put your investments
(1:23:35) Keeping it simple
(1:26:07) How much cash to hold
(1:28:20) Market timing risks
(1:34:38) Giving back in retirement
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You can afford anything, but not everything. We make daily decisions about how to spend money, time, energy, focus and attention – and ultimately, our life.
How do we make smarter decisions? How do we think from first principles?
On the surface, Afford Anything seems like a podcast about money and investing.
But under the hood, this is a show about how to think critically, recognize our behavioral blind spots, and make smarter choices. We’re into the psychology of money, and we love metacognition: thinking about how to think.
In some episodes, we interview world-class experts: professors, researchers, scientists, authors. In other episodes, we answer your questions, talking through decision-making frameworks and mental models.
Want to learn more? Download our free book, Escape, at http://affordanything.com/escape. Hosted by Paula Pant.
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