Odd Lots

Utilities analysts are having a moment as the energy sector gets a boost from AI. With an extra 94 gigawatts forecast to be needed by 2030 to power all these new data centers, energy investment has become a hot play as investors take a "picks and shovels" approach. But one long-time analyst says that — from a utilities perspective — we're already set to overbuild capacity by twice as much as is needed. On this episode, Andy DeVries, co-head of investment grade credit and head of utilities and power at CreditSights, talks to us about the math behind his infrastructure overbuild analysis, who has been making money (so far) from the data center boom, and what we already see playing out in the credit markets.
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Trump has announced that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is going to be his nominee to succeed Jerome Powell. The responses to the news are split among some interesting lines. People like Neil Dutta have been highly critical, while at the same time, the pick has earned praise from Jason Furman, who was the Chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers. So who is Kevin Warsh? And why is this pick particularly controversial? On this episode, we talk with Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, who walks us through Warsh's history of commenting on and executing monetary policy. He argues that in addition to having gotten some big calls wrong (particularly in the years surrounding the GFC), Warsh has a history of aligning his policy views with partisan consideration. We also talk about the challenges Warsh will have establishing credibility within the FOMC, as well as challenges that may arise the next time the Fed has to step in during a period of crisis.
Read more:
Fed’s Musalem Says It Would Be ‘Unadvisable’ to Lower Rates
Carney, Macklem Congratulate Warsh on Federal Reserve Nomination
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The big story this year is the surge in metals. And it's really all metals. The ultimate industrial metal, copper, has been on a massive tear, but so has gold, which has very few industrial uses. And then, of course, silver has seen a blistering rally, in part due to massive buying in China. On this episode, we bring back the man who saw this coming years ago, Carlyle partner Jeff Currie. Prior to joining Carlyle, Currie was a top commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs, and has been calling for the emergence of a brand new supercycle for years now. In this episode, he explains the drivers of this supercycle, and why he thinks we're in the very early days of what will be a multi-year run.
Read more:Gold Retreats in Sudden Selloff After Breaking Through $5,500China’s Metals Mania Sends Copper Soaring Past $14,500 a Ton
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The Trump administration says it wants to kick start private investment in Venezuela now that it's captured Maduro. And Ukraine is eventually going to need a massive rebuild. But what is it like for a big multinational to actually operate in these types of places? In this episode, we speak with Jeff Kazin and Mike Rohlfsen, the cofounders of agricultural consultancy AgrisAcademy and former long-time Cargill employees. Jeff previously ran Cargill's Venezuelan business and Mike was the company's first employee in another geopolitical hotspot: Ukraine. We talk about the challenges they faced in these two locations, including dollar shortages, corruption, and security threats, and their sometimes creative solutions to them.

Read more:
Venezuela Leader Pressed From All Sides Over Oil Industry Plans
Ukraine Says It Attacked Small Oil Refinery in Southern Russia
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One of the mega-themes of the economy is that the big keep getting bigger. You see it in technology, where the megacap software companies are outperforming their smaller peers. And you see it in finance, where the world's biggest banks keep growing their share within the industry. Across multiple fields, there are clear advantages to size and scale that keep accruing. But what does it take to get to the very top, and what are the real advantages to size and scale? PNC Financial is one of the biggest banks in the country, though not quite as big as names like JPMorgan or Bank of America. So what does it take to grow in such a mature industry? And what kind of advantages accrue to the large players? On this episode, we talk to CEO Bill Demchak in a wide ranging conversation about the state of the industry. He explains why they're still building physical bank branches, why it's not a good time to make acquisitions, and how one bank stands out from another. We also talk about the changing regulatory environment, and what the firm is seeing right now in terms of useful applications of generative AI.

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