Kreisky Forum Talks

Gudrun Harrer in conversation with James Worrall, Yousuf Al Bulushi

OMAN'S MOMENT? HORMUZ DIPLOMACY AND THE SEARCH FOR A NEW REGIONAL ORDER

As the war between Iran and the United States remains unresolved and enters its ninth month, the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a focal point of the conflict. It is not only a strategic waterway but also a potential instrument of political power. The question of who controls access to the Strait, and on what terms, has implications far beyond the Gulf.

For Oman, which has long cultivated its role as a mediator between regional adversaries and between Iran and the United States, this moment presents both an opportunity and a challenge. Muscat's diplomacy may offer a path towards de-escalation, but it also raises fundamental questions about the future regional order. What role can Oman play in shaping the arrangements governing Hormuz? How will its relations with Tehran and Washington evolve? And can regional diplomacy produce a sustainable framework for security in the Gulf?

Dr. Yousuf Al Bulushi is the Chairman of the Muscat Policy Council, Oman’s first independent Think-Do Tank, dedicated to advancing research, policy studies, and dialogue to address global challenges. Al Bulushi is actively involved with esteemed international think tanks, specializing in regional security and GCC international relations, with a particular focus on regional Geopolitics. His research examines the GCC region, with a notable emphasis on Oman’s developmental strategies and foreign policy. A distinguished commentator on Oman’s historical and contemporary geopolitical significance, Al Bulushi’s scholarly work and insights establish him as a leading authority in the fields of Regional Security, GCC Relations, and Political Economy.

Dr. James Worrall is Associate Professor in International Relations and Middle East Studies at University of Leeds. His research interests lie in the fields of Comparative Politics, Security Studies and International Relations, with particular geographical concentration on the Gulf and the Levant. Research broadly focuses on: Western Relations with the Arab World, Gulf Politics, Society and Security, Regional International Organisations, Decolonisation, Counterinsurgency, Security Sector Reform, Regime Stability and Legitimacy in Non-democratic States and Diplomatic Theory and Practice.

Gudrun Harrer, Lecturer in Modern History and Politics of the Near and Middle East at the University of Vienna and the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna; former Senior Editor at Der Standard (until 2025).

H.E. Wamkele Mene, Cynthia E. Gnassingbe - Essonam and Leena Koni Hoffmann

FREE TRADE AS A DRIVER FOR AFRICA’S ECONOMIC INTEGRATION?

In cooperation with the Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE) and the Vienna Institute for International Dialogue and Cooperation (VIDC)

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is Africa's most ambitious economic integration project. The political ambitions are high: the AfCFTA aims to boost intra-African trade, enable regional value chains, promote industrialization, and enhance the continent's position in the global economy. Considerable progress has been made since the Agreement entered into force in 2019, particularly in establishing its political, legal and institutional architecture. However, translating the AfCFTA's political vision into tangible economic outcomes remains a complex undertaking. Successful implementation goes beyond tariff reductions and requires improvements in trade facilitation, customs procedures, transport and logistics, access to finance, regulatory cooperation, common standards and productive capacities. This event will discuss the current state of the AfCFTA, the challenges of its implementation, and what is needed to boost investment, industrialization and employment in Africa while ensuring that the benefits of integration are shared across countries, regions, businesses and different groups of population.

Key Note Speech: "The AfCFTA as a driver for trade, production and employment: strategic considerations" by
H.E. Wamkele Mene, Secretary-General of the African Continental Free Trade Area and former South African Representative at the World Trade Organization

Followed by a panel with:
Cynthia E. Gnassingbe - Essonam, Director for Private Sector Engagement & Communications, Office of the Secretary - General, African Continental Free Trade Area Secretariat
Leena Koni Hoffmann, Associate Fellow in the Africa Program at Chatham House, UK; member of the International Council of Transparency International
Moderators:
Miriam Mona Mukalazi leads the Africa Policy Program at the Vienna Institute for International Dialogue and Cooperation (VIDC)
Bernhard Tröster, Senior Researcher at the Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE)

Gregor Mayer im Gespräch mit Florian Bieber, Peter Techet, Noljan Lole & Tanja Topić

WAS AUTOKRATEN FÜRCHTEN

Serbien – Schlüsselland im Umbruch: Lange galt die Mehrheit der serbischen Bevölkerung als politisch desinteressiert. Proteste, die sporadisch aufflammten, scheiterten. Als im November 2024 das Vordach des Bahnhofs in Novi Sad einstürzte und mehrere Menschen starben, änderte sich das schlagartig. Landesweit entstand eine breite Protestbewegung: Die Menschen fordern Aufklärung, prangern Missstände in Regierung und Verwaltung an und verlangen Rechtsstaatlichkeit, öffentliche Kontrolle und echte Korruptionsbekämpfung. Seitdem gerät Präsident Vučić zunehmend unter Druck.

Balkan-Experte Florian Bieber zeigt anhand dieser starken Bewegung die Bedeutung von Bürgerprotesten. Für Serbien, aber auch für Europa, Russland und die USA. Denn weltweit fürchten Autokraten wie Vučić, Orbán, Putin und Trump zivilgesellschaftliche Proteste – und bekämpfen sie mit den immer gleichen Mitteln.

Doch der Blick soll nicht auf Serbien beschränkt bleiben. Auch in anderen Ländern der Region zeigt sich, wie zivilgesellschaftlicher Protest etablierte politische Machtverhältnisse herausfordern kann. In Ungarn endete mit der Parlamentswahl im April 2026 die 16-jährige Regierungszeit Viktor Orbáns und seiner Fidesz-Partei. In Albanien wiederum dauern seit Monaten die Proteste der sogenannten „Flamingo-Revolution“ an. Ausgelöst durch ein umstrittenes Luxusprojekt an der Adriaküste, an dem auch Donald Trumps Schwiegersohn Jared Kushner beteiligt ist, richten sie sich mittlerweile zunehmend gegen Korruption, mangelnde Transparenz und die Regierung von Edi Rama.

Ausgehend von Serbien und mit Blick auf Ungarn, Albanien und weitere Länder der Region soll diskutiert werden, unter welchen Bedingungen zivilgesellschaftliche Bewegungen autoritäre und illiberale Strukturen herausfordern können. Welche Strategien nutzen Regierungen, um Protest einzudämmen? Wann gelingt es Protestbewegungen, über kurzfristige Mobilisierung hinaus politischen Wandel anzustoßen? Und welche Perspektiven eröffnen sich daraus für Demokratie und Rechtsstaatlichkeit in den jeweiligen Ländern?

Florian Bieber, ist Professor für Südosteuropäische Geschichte und Politik am Zentrum für Südosteuropastudien der Universität Graz. Er koordiniert die Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG).  Zu seinen jüngsten Veröffentlichungen zählen   Debating Nationalism (Bloomsbury 2026), Hvar in the Modern Age. Identity and Change in Southeast Europe  (Bloomsbury 2026), sowie Was Autokraten fürchten: Aufstand in Serbien und die Krise autoritärer Regime (Ch. Links 2026). 

Peter Techet, promovierter Jurist und Historiker, wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Institut für den Donauraum und Mitteleuropa (IDM) und Habilitand an der Rechtswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Zürich.

Noljan Lole, Journalist, Chefredakteur Albanian Public Broadcaster RTSH.

Tanja Topić, Korrespondentin und Redaktionsmitglied der Belgrader Wochenzeitung Vreme sowie wissenschaftliche Mitarbeiterin der Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in Banja Luka. Sie hat Politikwissenschaft studiert.

Moderation:
Gregor Mayer, lebt als Autor und Journalist in Belgrad und Budapest. Er studierte an der Universität Graz Philosophie und Mathematik.

Cengiz Günay in conversation with Berk Esen and Görkem Yaz

In cooperation with Austrian Institute for International Affairs.

Shaping Turkey’s Democratic Future - Episode 2:THE BATTLE FOR TURKEY'S OPPOSITION

Turkey has been in a multiparty democracy since 1945, but its democratic development has repeatedly been interrupted by military interventions and the suppression of political opposition. Since Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, Turkey’s political system has undergone a profound transformation, accompanied by growing restrictions on press freedom, human rights and political opposition.

The CHP’s landslide victory in the 2024 local elections raised hopes that voters could still alter the political balance through the ballot box. Yet the subsequent arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Erdoğan’s most prominent political challenger, and increasing judicial pressure on the CHP such as the removal of the party leadership by court ruling highlight that the regime ready to reverse electoral defeat and reshape the political playing field through an instrumental judiciary.

The panel will discuss, among other questions: Is Turkey crossing the line from electoral democracy towards outright authoritarianism? How much resistance can Turkish society and the opposition mobilize? Can a divided opposition mount a credible democratic challenge? And how resilient is Erdoğan’s increasingly personalized system of power? Finally, what can the EU and European political parties and civil society do to support democratic institutions and Turkey’s parliamentary opposition – and help preserve the possibility of genuine political competition?

Participants:
Berk Esen, Sabanci University
Görkem Yaz, MetroPOLL Strategic and Social Research Center

Moderators:
Cengiz Günay, Austrian Institute for International Affairs – oiip

Raimund Löw in conversation with Cas Mudde, Erin Kristin Jenne & Reinhard Heinisch

REALIGNMENT IN AMERICA.
How the Midterm Elections 2026 are Shaping the Future

The midterm elections will be a crucial test of the political and social divisions that have increasingly shaped the United States. One third of the Senate and all members of the House of Representatives will be elected, making control of Congress a decisive factor for the remainder of Donald Trump’s presidency.
If the Democrats succeed in winning control of Congress, Trump could effectively become a lame-duck president during the second half of his term. A Democratic majority could significantly constrain the administration’s ability to pass legislation, control government spending, and pursue some of its domestic priorities. At the same time, however, the administration has various instruments at its disposal to influence the political environment, like intimidation, political pressure, restrictive voting measures, and aggressive rhetoric which can affect voter turnout and the willingness of citizens to participate in the elections. Do such strategies primarily mobilize Trump’s supporters, or can they also discourage opposition voters from going to the polls?

Another important question is the role of foreign policy. Traditionally, US midterm elections have been dominated by domestic issues such as the economy, immigration, healthcare, and inflation. Yet conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, relations with China, NATO, and the future of US support for Ukraine could increasingly influence voters and shape the broader political debate. This is particularly relevant for Europe, where the outcome of the elections could have significant consequences for transatlantic relations, European security, and the future of NATO. What lessons can European democracies draw from the increasing polarization of American politics, and how should Europe prepare for a potentially more unpredictable and confrontational United States?

Cas Mudde, Professor of International Affairs / Political Science, University of Georgia (online)

Erin Kristin Jenne, Professor of International Relations, Central European University

Reinhard Heinisch, Professor of Political Science, University of Salzburg

Moderation:
Raimund Löw, Journalist, author, and historian, head of Falter Radio