Longriver Podcast

I spoke with Brian Mushonga and Will Thrower, two members of the three-person team at Caledon Investment Partners, about a recent memo they published titled ‘Hyperscaler Capex is Hitting Its Physical Limits’. This is the fourth time I’ve had Brian and Will on the podcast, and the memo was a great excuse to catch up on their thinking and to hear where they’re spending time.
Their core argument is that the biggest constraint on the AI buildout is no longer software or even chips alone, but energy infrastructure. As demand for compute explodes, hyperscalers are running into hard bottlenecks in power generation, grid capacity, transformers, turbines, cooling systems, permitting, and skilled labour. Brian and Will explain why these constraints may prove more durable than many investors expect, and why the picks-and-shovels businesses exposed to them could continue to benefit even if the market starts to worry about cyclicality or overinvestment.
We also discuss whether computing has entered a more asset-intensive era, how sustainable the current capex cycle really is, and what the strongest bear arguments against the AI boom get right and wrong. Along the way, we explore why Caledon prefers owning the bottlenecks around the hyperscalers rather than the hyperscalers themselves, how China’s electrification journey compares with America’s, and why efficiency gains in AI may increase demand rather than reduce it. The conversation concludes with a look at Caledon’s research process, which is built around mapping value chains end-to-end to identify the scarce assets that matter most.
As always, this conversation is for general discussion only, not investment advice.

I spoke with Enrique Becerra (aka @pandwatch88) about a presentation he recently published, titled “A Hitchhiker’s Guide to the China Stock Galaxy: 2026-2030”.
It is a lighthearted but serious attempt to cut through the noise that surrounds China and to bring some practical structure to the question every allocator eventually faces: how do you size China, if at all, when the risks are real but the opportunity set is too large to ignore.
If you already follow China closely, you will recognise many of the flashpoints, but you may still find Enrique’s framing useful, especially his focus on index distortions, valuation dispersion, and the difference between narrative risk and investable risk.
And if you do not follow China, this is a good entry point: a sceptic-friendly walk through the core objections, the data behind the bull case, and what would have to be true for China exposure to make sense in a global portfolio.
As always, this conversation is for general discussion only, not investment advice.

I spoke with Jevgenijs Kazanins about Wise plc, exploring his thesis that Wise has built the modern version of Citi: a global platform capable of serving customers locally, through a single sign-up, no matter where they are in the world. Actually, we spent a long time discussing my concerns about the company before I finally grasped what he was saying!
Jev's Substack PopularFintech is a great place to stay abreast of what's happening in Fintech, particularly the convergence of payments companies into software and vice versa. I highly recommend it because the breadth of his coverage allows him to see the wood for the trees.
Jev also posts regularly on X @jevgenijs.
Disclaimer: our conversation is NOT financial advice. Don't rely on our opinions. Always do your own research!

I received great feedback for a podcast I recorded with my wife Lizzie in 2022 as I was setting up this company. To mark Longriver’s third anniversary, she kindly agreed to interview me again.
We cover what I've learned as an entrepreneur, my investment process, what makes Longriver different and how exciting it is when fellow investors and business analysts reach out.
I hope you enjoy our conversation.

I spoke with analyst TP Huang about BYD, exploring his writing and analysis of the company, electrification and China's new industrial revolution.
If you are interested in these topics, I highly recommend you read TP's Substack. He excels in explaining the engineering and technical aspects which make electrification and BYD's rapid progress possible.
TP also posts regularly on X (@tphuang).