Longriver Podcast

I spoke with Dan Rupp, founder and CIO of Parkway Capital, about what it means to leave a respected institution, launch a fund in the teeth of an Asian bear market, and build an investment business from scratch. Dan launched Parkway in 2024, when sentiment in Hong Kong and across much of Asia was still deeply depressed, but he was unusually confident that the opportunity set was improving. That made this a good moment to explore not just his investment views, but how starting Parkway has sharpened his thinking about the craft and business of investing.
We discuss what Dan wanted to build at Parkway that he could not build at Overlook, why a smaller size opens up parts of the market that larger firms cannot easily access, and how his process has evolved now that it is live and supported by a growing team. He explains how Parkway narrows a huge Asian universe into an actionable set of ideas, how tools, scorecards and AI fit into the workflow, and why human judgment still matters most when assessing management, correlation, risk and portfolio fit.
We also talk about the business side of running a fund: marketing, time allocation, culture, delegation, and the challenge of being fully responsible for both investment results and the firm itself. Dan reflects on lessons carried over from Richard Lawrence and Overlook, especially the importance of serving LPs well through alignment, fee discipline, fund-size limits and a focus on capital-weighted returns rather than asset gathering for its own sake.
The conversation closes on a more personal note, with Dan reflecting on energy, longevity and the example set by his mother, who is still selling real estate at nearly ninety.
As always, this conversation is for general discussion only, not investment advice.

I spoke with Michael McGaughy, founder and CIO of Research Alpha, about what it means to invest where crisis, illiquidity, and institutional abandonment have driven valuations to generational lows. This was a timely chance to catch up on Michael’s thinking, how his portfolio has evolved, and what the last few years have taught him about investing through dislocation.
Michael explains that his process is built around three things: quality people, structures that align minority and majority shareholders, and crisis-level valuations. We discuss why he spends so much time studying ownership, families, and incentives, how that work began in Indonesia, and why he believes the same lens applies across much of the world outside the Anglo-Saxon markets. Along the way, he shares examples from Pakistan, including a Toyota dealership (Indus Motors) and Lucky Cement, that illustrate how much of investing ultimately comes down to capital allocation and stewardship rather than sector narratives alone.
We also explore the difference between foreign and local capital, why forced selling and ETF closures can create extraordinary opportunities, and how reforms in places like Nigeria can matter more than top-down commentators appreciate. The conversation closes with a candid reflection on Michael’s biggest lesson from recent years, namely the cost of selling too soon, and with a discussion of where he is currently finding value, including in Turkey.
As always, this conversation is for general discussion only, not investment advice.

I spoke with Brian Mushonga and Will Thrower, two members of the three-person team at Caledon Investment Partners, about a recent memo they published titled ‘Hyperscaler Capex is Hitting Its Physical Limits’. This is the fourth time I’ve had Brian and Will on the podcast, and the memo was a great excuse to catch up on their thinking and to hear where they’re spending time.
Their core argument is that the biggest constraint on the AI buildout is no longer software or even chips alone, but energy infrastructure. As demand for compute explodes, hyperscalers are running into hard bottlenecks in power generation, grid capacity, transformers, turbines, cooling systems, permitting, and skilled labour. Brian and Will explain why these constraints may prove more durable than many investors expect, and why the picks-and-shovels businesses exposed to them could continue to benefit even if the market starts to worry about cyclicality or overinvestment.
We also discuss whether computing has entered a more asset-intensive era, how sustainable the current capex cycle really is, and what the strongest bear arguments against the AI boom get right and wrong. Along the way, we explore why Caledon prefers owning the bottlenecks around the hyperscalers rather than the hyperscalers themselves, how China’s electrification journey compares with America’s, and why efficiency gains in AI may increase demand rather than reduce it. The conversation concludes with a look at Caledon’s research process, which is built around mapping value chains end-to-end to identify the scarce assets that matter most.
As always, this conversation is for general discussion only, not investment advice.

I spoke with Enrique Becerra (aka @pandwatch88) about a presentation he recently published, titled “A Hitchhiker’s Guide to the China Stock Galaxy: 2026-2030”.
It is a lighthearted but serious attempt to cut through the noise that surrounds China and to bring some practical structure to the question every allocator eventually faces: how do you size China, if at all, when the risks are real but the opportunity set is too large to ignore.
If you already follow China closely, you will recognise many of the flashpoints, but you may still find Enrique’s framing useful, especially his focus on index distortions, valuation dispersion, and the difference between narrative risk and investable risk.
And if you do not follow China, this is a good entry point: a sceptic-friendly walk through the core objections, the data behind the bull case, and what would have to be true for China exposure to make sense in a global portfolio.
As always, this conversation is for general discussion only, not investment advice.

I spoke with Jevgenijs Kazanins about Wise plc, exploring his thesis that Wise has built the modern version of Citi: a global platform capable of serving customers locally, through a single sign-up, no matter where they are in the world. Actually, we spent a long time discussing my concerns about the company before I finally grasped what he was saying!
Jev's Substack PopularFintech is a great place to stay abreast of what's happening in Fintech, particularly the convergence of payments companies into software and vice versa. I highly recommend it because the breadth of his coverage allows him to see the wood for the trees.
Jev also posts regularly on X @jevgenijs.
Disclaimer: our conversation is NOT financial advice. Don't rely on our opinions. Always do your own research!