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  • Lyn Alden: Trump Team’s Attempts at Cutting the Deficits Will Fail
    Tom welcomes back Lyn Alden, Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, to the show to discuss the intricacies of trade deficits, the role of the US dollar as a global reserve currency, and the broader economic implications for the United States. Lyn explains that a trade deficit occurs when a country imports more than it exports, and while some countries experience this cyclically, others, like India, have managed structural deficits by investing in long-term growth rather than overconsumption. The US, however, faces a unique challenge: its trade deficit is deeply tied to its status as the world's reserve currency, which creates an excess demand for dollars and makes it difficult to manufacture competitively. Lyn highlights that the dollar's strength perpetuates this cycle, making imports expensive and exports cheaper, while also forcing the US to rely on foreign investment to fund its deficits. This dynamic has contributed to deindustrialization and a shift in economic power globally. She contrasts this with historical examples like the UK during the Bretton Woods era, where a similar situation led to stagnation before the rise of new powers like the US. The discussion shifts to fiscal dominance, where large government deficits constrain monetary policy, making central banks more reliant on fiscal authorities. Lyn notes that the Fed is increasingly limited in its ability to control inflation due to these fiscal pressures. She also addresses Trump's tariff policies, arguing they harm domestic industries and shift costs onto American consumers while failing to address the root causes of trade imbalances. Inflationary pressures from tariffs are uneven, with specific sectors facing price increases while others experience disinflation. Lyn emphasizes that sustained inflation requires broader money supply growth, which has not been a significant factor in recent years. She concludes by exploring alternatives like gold and Bitcoin as potential reserve assets, suggesting that diversification into neutral reserves could help mitigate risks but remains largely theoretical at this stage. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Trade Deficits & Tariffs5:02 - Sustainable Economics?10:33 - Dollar & Liquidity14:02 - Fiat Currency 'Growth'15:49 - Fed & Fiat Deflation?21:40 - Tariff Model & Truth25:05 - Gold, Bitcoin, & Dollar28:30 - Trade, Tariffs, & Conflict33:04 - Bond Market Impacts36:36 - Taxes & Gradual Tariffs39:05 - DOGE & Reducing Deficits42:00 - Fiscal Dominance46:23 - Devaluing/Lower Dollar?49:43 - U.S. Gov't Buying Gold?52:20 - Bitcoin Reserve?56:09 - Tariffs & Inflation Effects59:40 - Watch for Fiscal Issues1:00:50 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/LynAldenContactWebsite: https://www.lynalden.com/ Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of LynAlden.com, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. She says, "Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance." Her site provides investment research and strategy, covering stocks, precious metals, international equities, and alternative investments, with a specialization in asset allocation. Whether you're new to investing or experienced, there's a lot there for you. Lyn has a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering and a master's degree in engineering management, focusing on engineering economics and financial modeling. She oversees the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility. She has been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public and private capacities. Her work has been editorially featured or cited on Business Insider, Marketwatch, Time's Money Magazine, The Daily Telegraph, The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Street, CNBC, US News and World Report, Kiplinger, and The Huffington Post. She has also appeared on Real Vision, The Investor's Podcast Network, The Rebel Capitalist Show, The Market Huddle, and many other podcasts.
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  • Brett Heath: Silver’s Big Moment – Is a Market Reversal Coming?
    Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Brett Heath, CEO of Metalla Royalty and Streaming, to discuss the current state of the gold industry. Brett highlights a strong bid under gold, driven by macroeconomic factors such as shifting perceptions around US assets and central bank diversification into gold. He notes that emerging market economies are reducing their exposure to US treasuries and increasing gold reserves, creating sustained demand. Brett emphasizes the undervalued nature of gold equities compared to historical standards, suggesting they are attractively priced for investors seeking stability and cash flow. He points to increased M&A activity as companies scramble to acquire high-quality assets amid a scarcity of scalable projects. Brett also discusses the speculative nature of silver, which is currently underperforming relative to gold, but sees potential for a rebound if sentiment shifts. Overall, Brett paints a bullish picture for gold, with significant long-term appreciation expected despite short-term volatility. He urges investors to monitor trends in asset valuation and central bank activity, signaling that now may be an opportune time to invest in high-quality gold assets. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Global Macro Picture5:20 - C. Banks East Vs West6:27 - Who Buys Next?8:26 - Timeline & Mkt. Direction10:25 - GDX & GDX.J Outflows12:38 - Gold, Fed & Catalysts16:05 - Inflation Drivers19:08 - U.S. Debt & Servicing21:42 - Industry Sentiment25:28 - Hurdles for Gold?28:53 - Chaotic M&A Coming?30:50 - Perception & Valuations36:03 - Silver Ratio Thoughts39:13 - Violent Reversal Silver40:15 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: https://www.metallaroyalty.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/metalla-royalty-and-streaming-ltd.Twitter: https://x.com/metallaroyalty Brett Heath is Chief Executive Officer and Director of Metalla Royalty & Streaming. Mr. Heath has a comprehensive career in the royalty sector and public markets with over two decades of experience. Over his career, he has founded and built over $1 billion in value using the royalty model in the public and private markets. He is currently the Chief Executive Officer of Metalla Royalty (NYSE: MTA) and Director of Key Carbon Ltd. (Private). He has completed over 50 royalty transactions in gold, silver, copper, nickel, and carbon markets with a diverse group of counterparties from major corporates, private equity, and private interests.
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  • Michael Gentile: The Perfect Storm in Mining – Record Gold Prices and Undervalued Stocks
    Michael Gentile, strategic investor in the junior mining sector and co-founder of Bastion Asset Management, discusses the current state of the gold mining industry and its potential for mean reversion. He highlights that gold mining stocks are trading at depressed levels despite record-high gold prices, creating a compelling entry point for investors. Gentile notes that while gold prices have tripled since 2018, gold mining stocks have lagged behind, offering significant value. Gentile emphasizes the importance of investing in commodities during periods of low sentiment and depressed prices, as this setup often precedes substantial returns. He points to historical cycles where negative sentiment and undervaluation led to major rebounds in gold mining stocks. Gentile also underscores the strong fundamentals of the industry, including record margins and free cash flow generation, which he attributes to higher gold prices and stable costs. He contrasts the current market with past periods, such as 2015-2020, where similar conditions led to significant rallies in gold mining stocks. Gentile believes that the sector is poised for a rotation, driven by improving fundamentals and macroeconomic factors like central bank buying of gold and geopolitical uncertainties. He also notes that while tech stocks have outperformed gold mining stocks historically, the latter now offers a unique opportunity due to its undervaluation. Gentile advises investors to diversify their exposure to the sector through ETFs or baskets of producing companies before moving into higher-risk junior miners. He stresses patience and a long-term perspective, as building mines takes time and requires careful consideration of jurisdictional risks and infrastructure challenges. In conclusion, Gentile sees the gold mining sector as a multi-year tailwind driven by macroeconomic trends, including the repositioning of gold as a hedge against inflation and the US dollar's decline. He encourages investors to allocate at least 5-10% of their portfolios to gold or related equities to preserve wealth in uncertain times. Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - Mining Valuations & Risk3:08 - Catalysts & Charts7:24 - Margin Expansion Growth13:53 - Miners & Projections16:08 - Global Slowdown Impacts?19:10 - Capital Rotation Charts25:15 - Timing & Positioning28:43 - Lassonde Curve & Patience32:13 - Other Metals & Sentiment34:46 - Project Timelines & Risks40:00 - M&A & Finding Projects45:50 - Secondary Project Factors48:20 - Rating Jurisdictions50:37 - Development & Resource Est.53:47 - Advice for New Investors56:37 - Portfolio Weightings59:23 - Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-gentile-01028552Website: https://bastion-am.com Michael Gentile, CFA, Founding Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager Before founding BAM, Michael was Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager at Formula Growth Ltd for over 17 years. Michael co-managed the FG Alpha Fund (US SMid equity market neutral) between 2012 and 2018, co-managed the FG Focus Fund (US SMid long short strategy) between 2014 and 2018. Since leaving FG in 2018, Michael has been very successful investing in the gold sector also acting as Strategic Advisor and Director for several companies in the natural resource sector. Michael graduated with Great Distinction from the John Molson School of Business (Concordia University) with a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance) and received the Calvin Potter Fellowship from Concordia’s Kenneth Woods Portfolio Management Program. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation (CFA)
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  • Luke Gromen: Gold Can be Used to Rebalance the Global Economy Without a World War
    Tom welcomes back Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees back to the show. The discussion delves into complex economic and geopolitical dynamics, focusing on how global powers might navigate a transition away from the dollar-based system towards a neutral reserve asset like gold. He begins by highlighting that the current dollar-centric system is unsustainable due to high deficits and debt levels. A potential solution, he suggests, involves using gold as a neutral reserve asset, which would allow commodities to be priced in multiple currencies and facilitate trade settlements. This shift could create a more balanced and resilient global economic framework. Moving on to geopolitical implications, Gromen notes that the conflict in Ukraine has underscored the limitations of conventional military strategies, shifting the balance of power dynamics. He points out that countries like Russia and China are driving efforts to move away from the dollar system, which necessitates a new economic framework. This transition is not just an economic shift but also a significant geopolitical realignment. Luke emphasizes the importance of incentives for avoiding direct military confrontation with major powers. He explains that such conflicts are strategically unwise due to nuclear deterrence and the deep interdependence of economies. Instead, he argues that negotiating a new economic order aligns with long-term strategic interests and avoids the catastrophic consequences of war. Drawing on historical context, Mr. Gromen observes that the post-World War II debt-based economy is nearing its limits, making it imperative to return to a more sustainable model. He suggests that transitioning to gold as a reserve asset could reboot global economies, fostering stability and growth without resorting to conflict. This approach not only addresses current economic challenges but also positions nations for future prosperity. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:55 - Tariffs & China's Response5:52 - Trade Disruption & Inflation8:26 - Inflation & Real Rates10:35 - Bessent Put & Move Index12:26 - Treasury Auction Thoughts16:45 - W. Buffett Cash Reserve22:14 - Inv. Funds and Mandates23:53 - News Cycle/Gold Theory31:00 - Chinese Fin. Officials34:46 - Large U.S. Gold Imports40:48 - Official Denial/Confirm44:44 - Revaluing Gold Reserves48:28 - Gold Backed Treasuries?51:49 - Gold Pricing Cui Bono54:17 - Oil/Dollar Scenarios1:02:03 - Russia/Saudi & Oil Mkts.1:03:39 - Economics & Derisk. Conflict1:14:53 - Incentives & Ukraine1:17:17 - End of Debt as Assets Era1:21:30 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/lukegromenWebsite: https://fftt-llc.com/ Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest's widely-read weekly summary ("Heard in the Midwest") for the firm's clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources. In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC's flagship weekly research summary piece ("Straight from the Source") for the firm's customers. In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC ("Forest for the Trees"), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks. Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.
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  • Chris Vermeulen: Gold is Signaling a Financial Reset is Upon Us
    Tom welcomes back Chris Vermeulen, the founder of The Technical Traders, to discuss the highly volatile year of 2025 so far. He notes that volatility has been extreme across various asset classes, driven by factors like geopolitical tensions, AI advancements, and fears of an impending recession. Vermeulen emphasized that while day traders thrive in such environments due to significant intraday swings, swing traders face increased risks with massive price gaps. Long-term investors should prioritize capital preservation by moving to cash until market clarity emerges, as he believes a bear market has already begun. He warned against the "buy the dip" mentality, especially for those nearing retirement, cautioning that this approach could lead to significant losses in a prolonged bear market. Vermeulen points out key indicators of an impending financial reset, including economic data showing hiring declines and rising unemployment, as well as housing market corrections with inventories soaring. Gold was discussed as a safe haven asset, though Vermeulen cautioned about potential pullbacks. He suggested that gold miners could offer better opportunities once the market stabilizes. Seasonality plays a role in his analysis, noting that stock markets typically struggle post-May, aligning with his bearish outlook. Real estate was also addressed, with Vermeulen predicting price drops of 15-20% and warning about the broader economic impact as housing values decline. He highlighted the psychological effect on investors when their largest asset depreciates, potentially leading to panic selling across markets. The U.S. dollar's potential strength was discussed, with Vermeulen suggesting it could rally in a risk-off environment. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - Market Volatility & Trading4:58 - Markets in Topping Stage8:30 - Cliff Phase Indicators15:22 - Downside Targets Gold18:50 - Expectations for Miners?23:18 - Seasonality in 2025?26:00 - Silver Markets & Risk?28:57 - Bitcoin Decoupling31:45 - Real Estate & Nest Eggs34:30 - Google Search Trends42:08 - Dollar Thoughts48:49 - Mkt Resets & Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheTechTradersWebsite: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/ Chris Vermeulen is the Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. Chris has been involved in the markets since 1997. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author. Years of research, trading, and helping individual traders worldwide have taught him that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing. They struggle to execute trades systematically for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders, and his mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility. He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest, and dozens of other financial websites.
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