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Luke Gromen: Gold Can be Used to Rebalance the Global Economy Without a World War
Tom welcomes back Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees back to the show. The discussion delves into complex economic and geopolitical dynamics, focusing on how global powers might navigate a transition away from the dollar-based system towards a neutral reserve asset like gold. He begins by highlighting that the current dollar-centric system is unsustainable due to high deficits and debt levels. A potential solution, he suggests, involves using gold as a neutral reserve asset, which would allow commodities to be priced in multiple currencies and facilitate trade settlements. This shift could create a more balanced and resilient global economic framework. Moving on to geopolitical implications, Gromen notes that the conflict in Ukraine has underscored the limitations of conventional military strategies, shifting the balance of power dynamics. He points out that countries like Russia and China are driving efforts to move away from the dollar system, which necessitates a new economic framework. This transition is not just an economic shift but also a significant geopolitical realignment. Luke emphasizes the importance of incentives for avoiding direct military confrontation with major powers. He explains that such conflicts are strategically unwise due to nuclear deterrence and the deep interdependence of economies. Instead, he argues that negotiating a new economic order aligns with long-term strategic interests and avoids the catastrophic consequences of war. Drawing on historical context, Mr. Gromen observes that the post-World War II debt-based economy is nearing its limits, making it imperative to return to a more sustainable model. He suggests that transitioning to gold as a reserve asset could reboot global economies, fostering stability and growth without resorting to conflict. This approach not only addresses current economic challenges but also positions nations for future prosperity. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:55 - Tariffs & China's Response5:52 - Trade Disruption & Inflation8:26 - Inflation & Real Rates10:35 - Bessent Put & Move Index12:26 - Treasury Auction Thoughts16:45 - W. Buffett Cash Reserve22:14 - Inv. Funds and Mandates23:53 - News Cycle/Gold Theory31:00 - Chinese Fin. Officials34:46 - Large U.S. Gold Imports40:48 - Official Denial/Confirm44:44 - Revaluing Gold Reserves48:28 - Gold Backed Treasuries?51:49 - Gold Pricing Cui Bono54:17 - Oil/Dollar Scenarios1:02:03 - Russia/Saudi & Oil Mkts.1:03:39 - Economics & Derisk. Conflict1:14:53 - Incentives & Ukraine1:17:17 - End of Debt as Assets Era1:21:30 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/lukegromenWebsite: https://fftt-llc.com/ Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest's widely-read weekly summary ("Heard in the Midwest") for the firm's clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources. In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC's flagship weekly research summary piece ("Straight from the Source") for the firm's customers. In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC ("Forest for the Trees"), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks. Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.
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1:23:12
Chris Vermeulen: Gold is Signaling a Financial Reset is Upon Us
Tom welcomes back Chris Vermeulen, the founder of The Technical Traders, to discuss the highly volatile year of 2025 so far. He notes that volatility has been extreme across various asset classes, driven by factors like geopolitical tensions, AI advancements, and fears of an impending recession. Vermeulen emphasized that while day traders thrive in such environments due to significant intraday swings, swing traders face increased risks with massive price gaps. Long-term investors should prioritize capital preservation by moving to cash until market clarity emerges, as he believes a bear market has already begun. He warned against the "buy the dip" mentality, especially for those nearing retirement, cautioning that this approach could lead to significant losses in a prolonged bear market. Vermeulen points out key indicators of an impending financial reset, including economic data showing hiring declines and rising unemployment, as well as housing market corrections with inventories soaring. Gold was discussed as a safe haven asset, though Vermeulen cautioned about potential pullbacks. He suggested that gold miners could offer better opportunities once the market stabilizes. Seasonality plays a role in his analysis, noting that stock markets typically struggle post-May, aligning with his bearish outlook. Real estate was also addressed, with Vermeulen predicting price drops of 15-20% and warning about the broader economic impact as housing values decline. He highlighted the psychological effect on investors when their largest asset depreciates, potentially leading to panic selling across markets. The U.S. dollar's potential strength was discussed, with Vermeulen suggesting it could rally in a risk-off environment. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - Market Volatility & Trading4:58 - Markets in Topping Stage8:30 - Cliff Phase Indicators15:22 - Downside Targets Gold18:50 - Expectations for Miners?23:18 - Seasonality in 2025?26:00 - Silver Markets & Risk?28:57 - Bitcoin Decoupling31:45 - Real Estate & Nest Eggs34:30 - Google Search Trends42:08 - Dollar Thoughts48:49 - Mkt Resets & Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheTechTradersWebsite: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/ Chris Vermeulen is the Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. Chris has been involved in the markets since 1997. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author. Years of research, trading, and helping individual traders worldwide have taught him that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing. They struggle to execute trades systematically for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders, and his mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility. He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest, and dozens of other financial websites.
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52:07
Byron King: Gold is Being Remonetized, Like It or Not
Tom welcomes back geologist and newsletter writer Byron King for a discussion on various aspect of the mining industry and the impacts of tariffs. They touch upon the fact that central banks are buying large amounts of gold and the impact this has on gold prices. They also mention the neglect of mining shares in comparison to the rise in gold prices, creating opportunities for investors. They also discuss the current mining cycle and how companies are reporting good earnings due to high gold prices. Byron suggests investors look for companies with assets, a strong management team, and resources worth exploring further. He mentions several examples of promising companies and opportunities within the gold space, as well as mentioning his own experiences at mining conferences. Additionally, Byron gives us his thoughts on the global market situation and how tariffs may affect various industries and economies. Byron encourages listeners to explore more about hard assets and investing in metals and energy for potential opportunities and growth. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - First 100 Days & Gold4:35 - Gold, Uncertainty & Price10:45 - Trump Taxes & Deficits17:57 - W. Vs E. Gold Monetization25:44 - China & Trade War Options35:17 - Trump Greenland & Canada44:44 - Underinvestment in Mining55:00 - Miner Margins & Sentiment1:02:43 - Opinions at Conferences1:09:23 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: https://paradigmpressgroup.com/ Byron King has first-hand expertise and connections in important industries like commodities and defense. He literally goes the extra mile to bring you perspectives you won’t find anywhere else. His insights have been featured on MSN Money, Marketwatch.com, Fox Business News, CNBC’s Squawk Box, Larry Kudlow, Glenn Beck and PBS’s NewsHour. He has also been published in the Financial Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. Byron graduated from Harvard University with a degree in geological sciences. He then went to work as a geologist for Gulf Oil Exploration and Production. Next came a tour as a flight officer for the U.S. Navy. At one point, he was an aide to the United States Chief of Naval Operations. After leaving active duty, Byron began practicing law. In 2002, he started corresponding with the staff of The Daily Reckoning. His work was featured so frequently he was often called an “unpaid contributor.” When he officially joined the staff, he began criss-crossing the globe in search of the world’s best mining investment opportunities. Even now Byron spends much of his time away from home, checking out remote exploration sites, mines, rigs and plants to bring you a first-hand account of almost every investment opportunity he recommends. His way of breaking down technical language into everyday English has earned him a lot of fans. And you can count on him to give you the clearest picture of companies that make the world work.
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1:12:00
John Johnston: America’s New Bull Market and the Unknown Top for Gold
Tom Bodrovics welcomes John Johnston (JJ), a seasoned trader with over 47 years of experience and 30-Years on the Comex and Nymex. John expresses a bullish stance on gold, emphasizing its long-term potential despite near-term volatility. He acknowledges silver's struggles due to contango and high costs but remains optimistic about its eventual rebound. He also highlights his bullishness on bonds and the U.S. economy, crediting President Trump for fostering positive change and balance in the financial system. JJ's trading strategy revolves around technical indicators like the slow stochastic oscillator and Wells Wilder’s directional movement indicator, which he applies across various markets. He stresses the importance of position sizing, risk management, and understanding one's limitations as critical components of successful trading. The conversation delves into broader economic themes, including Trump's policies on taxation, tariffs, and antitrust measures, which JJ believes could redistribute wealth more equitably. He also touches on risks such as geopolitical tensions and potential recessions but remains optimistic about the administration's ability to navigate these challenges. John critiques the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, arguing it should prioritize protecting the dollar and banking system. He reflects on the historical significance of current events, likening them to pivotal moments in American history that will shape the nation's future. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:57 - Current Market Thoughts3:30 - Comex Experience11:23 - Gold Bull & Sentiment15:00 - Crude / Gold Ratio24:46 - Trump Policies & Risks34:48 - Silver Scenarios39:50 - Manipulation & Metals?43:20 - Vault Audits & Tungsten47:16 - Powell Challenges53:12 - Concluding Thoughts55:25 - Wrap Up Guest LinksSubstack: https://jj745.substack.comX: https://x.com/Alyosha745 John Johnston (JJ) is a veteran trader for 47-years with 30-years experience with the Comex and NYMEX. Known for his expertise in energy, gold, and silver, his views are old school pit wisdom with decades of technical evolution, and a somewhat literate overview of history and maket-lore. He writes about market trends and insights on the Market Vibes Substack. He says, "As a writer, I never try to be right. I try to be honest. I never want a reader to think what I think. I want the reader to know what I know."
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56:32
Josh Phair: The East Vs. West Race for Metals and Miners is Heating Up
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, host Tom Bodrovics interviews Josh Phair, CEO of Scottsdale Mint and Wyoming Reserve. The discussion centers on the current state of global finance, particularly the role of gold as a reserve asset and its implications for central banks, markets, and investors. Phair highlights that central banks are increasingly turning to gold as a risk-free asset, replacing treasuries on their balance sheets. This shift is driven by de-leveraging and de-risking strategies amid concerns over fiat currency inflation. He notes that countries like China have been leading this trend, with significant imports of gold into the U.S., signaling a global "gold race." The conversation also touches on Basel III regulations, set to take effect in summer 2025, which require banks to hold more capital and physical gold. Phair explains that owning ETFs does not provide the same risk-free status as holding physical gold, prompting central banks to prioritize its acquisition. Phair discusses the recent LBMA delivery issues, where metals were being requested at unprecedented rates, leading to delays. He suggests this was a combination of factors, including tariffs, market dynamics, and regulatory preparedness. Phair also explores the role of gold in a potential monetary reset, suggesting that while it won't happen overnight, gold is likely to play a significant role due to its status as a trusted asset. He advises investors to follow the lead of central banks and accumulate physical gold as a hedge against uncertainty. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Gold Vs. Treasuries3:20 - LBMA Deliveries & Tariffs10:37 - Exchange Purity Specs12:36 - Who is Buying?17:02 - Bessent & Gold19:24 - Risks & Scenarios24:27 - Public & Retail Interest27:25 - Fed & China Trade Collapse35:49 - Manufacturing Investment42:50 - Capital Rotation & BRICS45:02 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: https://www.scottsdalemint.comX: https://x.com/scottsdalemintX: https://x.com/JoshPhilipPhairInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/scottsdalemint/ Scottsdale Mint was started in 2008 by Josh Phair after working as Vice President of what is now known as Willis Towers Watson, where he ran the North American Mining Practice, personally managing dozens of the largest mining companies and their risk management operations. Dedicating himself to innovation, quality, and security, Mr. Phair orchestrated a remarkable transformation of the company, evolving it from a mere retailer into a prominent U.S.-based manufacturer. Simultaneously, he adeptly managed a sophisticated trade and hedge book encompassing commodities, currencies, and digital assets. Thanks to his strategic leadership, Scottsdale Mint has earned global recognition as a premier brand in the precious metals industry. Josh Phair also cofounded and serves as CEO of The Wyoming Reserve Opportunity Zone Fund, a tax-advantaged precious metals vaulting business. In addition to his remarkable achievements, Mr. Phair’s profound appreciation for fine art extends to a deep passion for both traditional and digital artistic expressions. This passion serves as the driving force behind the artistic excellence that sets Scottsdale Mint apart in the realm of precious metals.
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46:45