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Gary Savage: Gold’s Parabolic Rise to $10,000, Why $500 Silver is ‘likely’ & How This Bull Run Ends
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Gary Savage to the show. Gary Savage is Retired Entrepreneur, Investor, and President of Smart Money Tracker Premium. In this insightful interview, Savage provides a comprehensive analysis of the current precious metals market, focusing on gold and silver’s potential trajectory. Savage believes the gold market is currently in the second phase of a long-term bull market, which began around 2015. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining the “wall of worry” – a psychological state where investors remain cautious – to potentially extend the bull market’s duration. He suggests the market could continue for two to three more years if it avoids excessive optimism and maintains periodic corrections. Regarding potential price targets, Savage is remarkably bullish on gold, predicting it could reach $10,000, and potentially even $15,000 or $20,000. For silver, he anticipates reaching $100 by 2026, with potential for $250 and possibly $500 if market conditions remain favorable. He sees the gold-to-silver ratio as a key indicator of market tops, with a ratio between 20-30 suggesting a potential market peak. Savage’s investment strategy involves an 80/20 split, with 80% in physical gold and silver as a long-term insurance strategy, and 20% dedicated to leveraged trading during intermediate market cycles. Gary cautions against getting caught up in market narratives and emphasizes the importance of recognizing when an asset becomes overvalued. On broader economic trends, Savage discusses potential commodity supercycles, geopolitical conflict cycles, and the likelihood of continued central bank interventions. He remains cautiously optimistic about precious metals while acknowledging the potential for significant market volatility in the coming years. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:08 – Gold Bull Market Phase 00:02:34 – Wall of Worry Dynamics 00:05:03 – Public Interest in Gold 00:08:35 – Fundamentals and Narratives 00:10:22 – Parabolic Phase Indicators 00:12:13 – Playing the Bull Market 00:14:24 – Avoiding Narrative Traps 00:17:31 – Silver Price Outlook 00:21:27 – Market Suppression Break 00:23:53 – Miners as Leverage Play 00:25:44 – Equities Long-Term Cycle 00:29:27 – War Cycles and Recession 00:33:28 – Commodity Supercycle Potential 00:36:01 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: X: https:/x.com/garysavage1 Blog: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgiNs7gCxEvgBE1HHvoOKTQ/videos Website: https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/login/ Gary Savage is a retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. Gary is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also a national Judo, powerlifting, and Olympic weightlifting champion and world record holder. Gary holds national titles in 3 different sports and continues to challenge himself as an avid rock climber, and recently his newest endeavor bowling (two perfect 300 games so far). Gary’s renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil, and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas: Kitco, 24hGold, Gold-Eagle, Investing, 321Gold, Keyport, SilverSeek, TFMetalsReport, FuturesMag, ResourceInvestor, Silver-Phoenix, BayStreetBlog, BeforeItsNews, ETFDailyNews, TalkMarkets, JuniorMiningAnalyst, MarketOracle.UK, SafeHaven, GoldSeek, Mining, CommodityOnline, SilverMarketNewsOnline, StreetWiseReports, and InvestingNews. Gary publishes the Smart Money Tracker, a daily and weekend market newsletter available online by subscription only, at a very modest price. This subscription-only site provides Gary’s in-depth daily commentary and chart analysis of numerous markets, including the stock, precious metals, oil, and currency markets.
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39:02
Adrian Day: ‘Wildly Bullish’ for Gold, Gold Miners, $200 Silver & Oil and Gas
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Adrian Day to the show. Adrian Day is CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management & Manager of EuroPacific Gold Fund. In this in-depth conversation about precious metals and commodities, Day provides a comprehensive analysis of the current gold and broader investment landscape. Day remains highly bullish on gold, arguing that all fundamental drivers supporting gold’s recent rise remain intact. He highlights central bank purchasing, currency debasement concerns, and potential future Federal Reserve policies as key factors. While acknowledging gold’s recent price movements, he believes the market is far from reaching its peak and anticipates significant potential for further appreciation. Discussing the generalist investor market, Day notes that North American investors have historically maintained low gold allocations, typically around 2%. He suggests that as economic conditions become more favorable—including lower interest rates, weakening dollar, and increased market volatility—more generalist investors may enter the gold market. Regarding commodities, Day provides nuanced insights into potential investment cycles. He cautions against broadly labeling current trends a “super-cycle” but believes most commodity complexes are undervalued relative to financial assets. He emphasizes the importance of differentiating between individual commodities and focusing on sectors with potential supply constraints, specifically highlighting copper, uranium, and oil as promising areas. Day also discusses gold mining stocks, arguing that despite recent price increases, many large mining companies remain attractively valued. He sees significant potential in mid-tier miners and believes valuations remain compelling, particularly as gold reserves are revalued at higher prices. On broader economic trends, Day discusses the gradual shift away from dollar dominance, noting that while the US dollar remains central to global trade, its proportion of global reserves and trade settlements is declining. He anticipates this trend could incrementally benefit gold as an alternative asset. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:15 – Bullish Case for Gold 00:03:49 – Gold Pullback Analysis 00:09:57 – Generalist Investors Shift 00:16:18 – Currency Debasement Trade 00:19:31 – Remonetization Thesis Discussion 00:22:32 – Silver Price Surge Drivers 00:31:22 – Valuing Gold Miners 00:35:32 – Mid-Tier Miners Potential 00:38:02 – M&A and Financing Health 00:40:10 – Commodity Super-Cycle Tease 00:47:36 – Oil and Gas Dynamics 00:51:15 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://adrianday.com/ Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.
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53:37
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53:37
Dr. Mark Thornton: Early Innings for Gold, Silver Manipulation, Black Swans & Failing Markets
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Dr. Mark Thornton to the show. Dr. Mark Thornton is Economist and Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute. The discussion centers on the current state of precious metals, monetary policy, and economic systems, with a particular focus on gold and silver’s role in the global financial landscape. Thornton argues that gold is fundamentally money, and governments have only recently forced their way into replacing commodity money with fiat currency. He suggests that the current precious metals market is still in its early stages, with central bank buying and distrust in the US dollar driving significant interest. The gold and silver markets are experiencing growing pains, with increasing investor attention and potential for further price appreciation. The conversation delves into the fundamental differences between Austrian and Keynesian economics. Thornton criticizes Keynesian economics as a state-controlled ideology that promotes government spending and manipulates interest rates, whereas Austrian economics advocates for market-driven monetary systems and private property rights. He highlights how central bank policies create economic bubbles and exacerbate wealth inequality by favoring asset-rich individuals. Thornton sees potential for a significant monetary transformation, potentially triggered by the current precious metals bull market. He believes the collision between Western and Eastern financial markets, coupled with the rise of cryptocurrencies, could lead to a fundamental restructuring of monetary systems. The possibility of a return to a gold standard or a gold-backed settlement currency is discussed as a potential future scenario. The economist also warns about potential economic bubbles in artificial intelligence and private equity, arguing that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies have created unsustainable conditions across various sectors. He believes that while central banks have been able to temporarily extend economic cycles, their power is not infinite, and a significant market correction is inevitable. Thornton concludes by emphasizing the importance of understanding Austrian economic principles and encourages listeners to explore the works of economists like Friedrich Hayek to gain deeper insights into monetary systems and economic dynamics. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:19 – Gold as Money 00:04:21 – Central Bank Distrust 00:05:52 – Bull Run Early Stages 00:09:35 – Historical Parallels 1980s 00:14:15 – Return to Gold Standard 00:18:16 – Bond Markets Unraveling 00:24:07 – Austrian vs Keynesian Economics 00:31:19 – Flexible Inflation Targeting 00:33:53 – Silver Monetary Role 00:45:46 – AI Private Equity Bubbles 00:51:11 – Future Recession Outlook 00:55:41 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://mises.org X: https://x.com/DrMarkThornton E-Mail: mailto:[email protected] YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=mark+thornton+minor+issues Book-Hayek: https://mises.org/library/book/hayek-21st-century-essays-political-economy Dr. Mark Thornton is a Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute and formerly held the Peterson-Luddy Chair in Austrian Economics. He hosts the podcasts Minor Issues and Unanimity and is Book Review Editor of the Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics. His books include The Economics of Prohibition, Tariffs, Blockades, and Inflation, The Bastiat Collection, and The Skyscraper Curse. He has served on multiple editorial boards, taught economics at several universities, and worked as Assistant Superintendent of Banking and adviser to Alabama Governor Fob James. He holds degrees from St. Bonaventure University and Auburn University and has debated the “War on Drugs” at the Oxford Union. Dr. Thornton has been featured in major outlets such as The Economist, Forbes, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and USA Today, along with numerous international and regional newspapers. His commentary appears regularly on the Mises Institute’s platforms and on programs such as Boom-Bust, the Tom Woods Show, and the Scott Horton Show.
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58:19
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58:19
Francis Hunt: First Innings for Gold, Hyper Stagflation & Why Platinum Will Outperform Silver
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Francis Hunt to the show. Francis Hunt is the Renegade Trader, Analyst, & Founder of The Market Sniper. In this wide-ranging discussion, Hunt presents a comprehensive view of the current economic landscape, focusing on precious metals, debt, and potential financial system transformations. Hunt argues that the world is experiencing a significant economic paradigm shift characterized by debt debasement and financial repression. He believes we are in the early stages of a precious metals bull market, with gold, silver, and particularly platinum presenting substantial investment opportunities. He emphasizes the scarcity of these metals, especially platinum, which he sees as dramatically undervalued compared to its rarity. The discussion explores the potential risks in the current financial system, particularly around AI investments and government interventions. Hunt is critical of government policies, viewing them as mechanisms designed to reduce individual economic freedom. He suggests that governments are likely to implement increasingly aggressive tax policies and financial controls, which he terms “tax scavenge mode.” Francis predicts a complex economic future characterized by “hyperstagflation” – a period of economic stagnation combined with inflationary pressures. He recommends investors protect themselves by holding physical precious metals, with gold as the foundation, followed by silver and platinum. He also suggests that mining stocks could provide opportunities, though they carry more volatility. Geopolitically, Hunt sees interesting developments with the BRICS nations potentially introducing a gold-backed currency, which could force Western economies to reconsider their monetary strategies. He’s particularly skeptical of government statistics and mainstream narratives, encouraging investors to look beyond official reports. Ultimately, Hunt’s message is one of cautious opportunity. While he sees significant economic challenges ahead, he believes informed investors can protect and potentially grow their wealth by understanding these trends and positioning themselves strategically in precious metals and select investments. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:50 – Precious Metals Bull Thesis 00:01:50 – Bull Market Top Criteria 00:03:45 – AI Contagion and Debasement 00:07:48 – Debt-Fiat Debasement Era 00:11:45 – Stablecoins and Bailouts 00:12:55 – Gold vs Bitcoin Liquidity 00:15:40 – US Gold Revaluation Skepticism 00:18:45 – BRICS Gold-Backed Currency 00:24:55 – Crisis Opportunity Strategies 00:27:20 – Silver Scarcity and Ratio 00:39:12 – Platinum Monetary Potential 00:45:29 – Hyperstagflation and Super-Cycle 00:55:48 – Market Sniper Wrap Up Guest Links: X: https://x.com/themarketsniper X: https://x.com/thecryptosniper Website: https://themarketsniper.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade? He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis. Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals. He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.
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58:52
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58:52
Christopher Whalen: Gold Revaluation, Why AI-Narratives Are False & The Inflationary Boom
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Christopher Whalen to the show. Christopher Whalen is an Investment Banker, Author, and Chairman Whalen Global Advisors. The discussion centers on the current economic landscape, with a particular focus on gold, monetary policy, and the future of the global financial system. Whalen argues that the world is in the early stages of a gold up-cycle, primarily driven by central banks increasingly adopting gold as a key reserve asset. He emphasizes that while the US dollar remains crucial for global trade, its dominance is gradually shifting. Whalen provides insights into the current economic challenges, highlighting inflation as a significant concern. He suggests that the federal deficit and monetary expansion are primary drivers of economic instability. The conversation explores the potential for alternative monetary approaches, including gold-linked bonds and revaluing gold stocks, though Whalen remains skeptical about a complete return to a gold standard. Regarding global currency dynamics, Whalen believes the BRICS settlement currency and attempts to challenge the US dollar’s supremacy are unlikely to succeed in the near term. He argues that the dollar’s utility in financing transactions and its widespread acceptance make it difficult to replace. However, he anticipates a gradual decline in the dollar’s global share, moving towards a more multilateral system reminiscent of the pre-World War II era. On investment strategies, Whalen recommends diversification, particularly advocating for 10-20% of portfolios to be allocated to gold. He is cautious about current equity markets, especially tech stocks driven by artificial intelligence hype. The banking sector presents mixed prospects, with consumer banking relatively stable but commercial real estate posing significant challenges. Ultimately, Whalen remains optimistic about the United States’ economic potential. He believes the country’s natural resources, economic flexibility, and inherent strengths will help manage current financial challenges. The discussion concludes with a nuanced view of economic transformation, suggesting adaptation rather than catastrophic decline. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:54 – Gold’s Long-Term Cycle 00:01:21 – Central Banks Buying Gold 00:03:13 – Inflation and AI Hype 00:05:44 – Monetary Inflation Defined 00:07:04 – Metals as Safe Havens 00:11:13 – Commodity Supercycle Thesis 00:13:03 – Treasury Debt Issuance Strategy 00:15:44 – Gold-Linked Bonds Proposal 00:19:12 – Gold Remonetization Incentives 00:21:36 – BRICS Currency Challenge 00:26:56 – Outgrowing US Debt 00:32:41 – Equities in Inflation 00:36:26 – Banking Sector Health 00:38:32 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ X: https://x.com/rcwhalen Books (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/mv3wctcr LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rcwhalen/ Over three decades, Chris has worked as an author, financial professional, and journalist in Washington, New York, and London. After graduating, he served under Rep. Jack Kemp (R-NY) at the House Republican Conference Committee. In 1993, he was the first journalist to report on secret FOMC minutes concealed by Alan Greenspan. His career included roles at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bear Stearns & Co., Prudential Securities, Tangent Capital, and Carrington Mortgage Holdings. Christopher holds a B.A. in History from Villanova University. He is the author of three books: “Ford Men: From Inspiration to Enterprise” (2017), published by Laissez Faire Books; “Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream” (2010) by John Wiley & Sons; and co-author of “Financial Stability: Fraud, Confidence & the Wealth of Nations,” also with Wiley. He served on FINRA’s Economic Advisory Committee from 2011 to 2023 and was an advisor on Season 5 of SHOWTIME’s “Billions.” Additionally, he was a fellow at Indiana State University (2008-2014), a member of Villanova School of Business’ Finance Department Advisory Council (2013-2016), and a board member of the Global Interdependence Center (2017-2019). Christopher edits The Institutional Risk Analyst and contributes to other publications and forums. He has testified before Congress, the SEC, and FDIC. A regular media commentator on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox News, Chris is active on social media under “rcwhalen.” He is also a member of The Mortgage Bankers Association and The Lotos Club of New York.
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41:12