Palisades Gold Radio

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Mario Innecco to the show. Mario Innecco is Financial and Macro Economic Analyst, and also host of the ‘Manneco64’ YouTube Channel. The discussion centers on the current bull market in gold and silver, driven by several fundamental factors. Innecco highlights four primary drivers: de-dollarization, global debt challenges, geopolitical uncertainty, and the transition from a paper to a physical precious metals market. The de-dollarization trend is particularly significant, with countries seeking alternatives to the US dollar-dominated system. Central banks are increasingly buying gold, potentially aiming to hold 40% or more of their reserves in physical gold. The massive global debt, now around 300 trillion dollars, is making it increasingly difficult for governments to manage financial obligations, leading to potential financial repression and currency devaluation.

Mario emphasizes the importance of the Shanghai Gold Exchange in challenging the traditional Western paper trading markets. The exchange represents a shift towards physical trading, which could fundamentally change how precious metals are valued. He suggests that the transition from a paper to a physical market makes it harder to manipulate gold and silver prices.

Looking at potential price targets, Innecco draws parallels with historical bull markets, suggesting gold could reach as high as $8,300 based on previous price movements. He also discusses the possibility of a gold revaluation by the US Treasury, which could provide a financial windfall without adding to the national debt. The conversation extends to silver, which Innecco believes will continue to outperform gold, particularly in the latter stages of the current bull market. He recommends a conservative investment approach, suggesting investors allocate 90% to physical precious metals and 10% to mining stocks.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:01:12 – Gold’s Fundamental Drivers

00:04:30 – Debt and Financial Repression

00:05:10 – Paper Market Ending

00:09:42 – Silver Market Bifurcation

00:11:01 – Central Bank Buying

00:14:56 – Global Debt Inflation

00:19:51 – Gold Revaluation Potential

00:23:03 – Mystery Gold Flows

00:26:29 – BRICS Currency Remonetization

00:29:00 – Historical Bull Parallels

00:34:26 – Silver Bullish Breakout

00:39:27 – Commodity Rotation Outlook

Guest Links:

X: https://x.com/maneco1964

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/maneco64

Mario Innecco is a seasoned financial markets and macroeconomics analyst with over 25 years of experience in the industry. He began his career in private banking in Geneva, Switzerland, before spending two decades in the City of London, specializing in exchange-traded derivatives, government bonds, interest rates, and broader economic trends. During this time, he advised major financial institutions and corporate clients on market strategies and risk management.

A dedicated proponent of the Austrian School of Economics, Mario founded the maneco64 YouTube channel in November 2015, which serves as a platform for alternative economics and contrarian views. Through his videos, blog articles, and social media, he educates a worldwide audience on the intricacies of the fiat monetary system, financial markets, and the enduring value of precious metals like gold and silver.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Chris Rutherglen to the show. Chris Rutherglen is PhD Scientist/Engineer, Level 3 CFA, and publisher ‘The Gold Investor Research’ Substack. Chris provides a comprehensive analysis of gold and silver market cycles, utilizing a scientific approach to forecasting price movements. He explains that gold typically moves through distinct cycles, with particular focus on the current “rate cut period” and potential future “quantitative easing (QE) period”. Using sophisticated analytical tools, he tracks gold’s price movements relative to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate changes and monetary supply.

Rutherglen suggests gold is approaching its fifth intermediate cycle high, with a potential target range of $4,900 to $5,200. However, he believes the market may extend to a sixth intermediate cycle, potentially reaching around $6,700. Looking further ahead, he proposes a more dramatic long-term projection of gold potentially reaching $24,000 in the 2030s, based on historical debt-to-money supply ratios. For silver, Rutherglen applies similar analytical methods, projecting potential prices around $840, though he emphasizes these are speculative estimates based on current monetary trends. He notes that silver’s current price, while seeming high, is relatively consistent with historical inflation-adjusted prices.

Chris highlights several key indicators for tracking these cycles, including call and put option volumes, central bank purchases, and the relationship between gold prices and moving averages. He stresses that a true QE period would likely require significant economic stress, prompting substantial monetary intervention. His analysis suggests the current gold bull market still has potential room to grow, with the most significant gains potentially occurring during the future QE period. Rutherglen recommends investors remain attentive to economic indicators and be prepared for potential market shifts. Listeners can find more detailed analysis on his Gold Investor Research Substack, where he provides weekly updates and in-depth reports on precious metals market cycles.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:51 – Gold Cycle Position Overview

00:06:11 – Rate Cut Period Dynamics

00:08:16 – Mid-Cycle Level Explained

00:12:40 – Government Debt Impact

00:18:04 – Sixth Intermediate Cycle

00:22:25 – Market Indicators Analysis

00:25:35 – Gold Price Targets

00:30:18 – Options Volume Insights

00:33:21 – East-West Gold Flows

00:36:05 – Central Bank Purchases

00:37:48 – Bull Run Projections

00:40:06 – Silver Price Analysis

00:48:01 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Substack: https://giresearch.substack.com

X: https://x.com/CRutherglen

Chris Rutherglen is a private investor whose primary occupation is in science & engineering with a focus on novel semiconductor devices for microwave and mm-wave applications. He began investing in the precious metal space in 2003 and has done well following a value-oriented investment approach. Although he has never been employed in the finance/investment field professionally, he did complete level 3 of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) program in 2011. Chris has a BS in physics from the California Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Electrical Computer Engineering from the University of California, Irvin

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Josh Young to the show. Josh Young is Chief Investment Officer & Founder, Bison Interests. The interview explores the current landscape of the global energy market, focusing on geopolitical risks, supply and demand dynamics, and investment opportunities in the oil and gas sector. Young provides a comprehensive analysis of potential geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding Iran and the Middle East. He suggests that the current situation presents significant risks to global oil supply, with potential disruptions ranging from 1 to 20 million barrels per day. The geopolitical uncertainty is largely underappreciated by the market, creating potential opportunities for investors who understand these dynamics.

On the supply side, Josh highlights critical challenges in oil production. He notes that companies like Continental Resources are reducing drilling activities at current price levels, indicating that sustainable oil production may require prices in the $80-$90 range. The industry is experiencing a significant downcycle in both offshore and onshore exploration and development, with exploration success rates declining and existing reserves being depleted. Demand dynamics appear more robust than many analysts expect. Young argues that government stimulus, particularly in an election year, and emerging market growth could support oil consumption. He suggests that a potential economic slowdown might not necessarily reduce oil demand, as increased return-to-office trends could offset potential consumption reductions.

Regarding investment strategies, Young cautions against large integrated oil companies trading at high valuations. Instead, he recommends smaller producers with clean balance sheets, debt reduction potential, and attractive valuation metrics. He emphasizes the importance of companies that can pay down debt, buy back shares, and potentially offer high dividends. Young also discusses his Bison Insights substack, where he shares investment ideas in the energy sector. He believes the current market presents unique opportunities, drawing parallels to previous commodity cycles and highlighting the potential for significant returns in carefully selected energy investments.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:01:18 – Guest Welcome and Recap

00:03:01 – Silver Prediction Success

00:05:25 – Oil Geopolitical Risks

00:10:45 – Iran Production Impacts

00:16:34 – Risk Pricing Discussion

00:18:56 – China Oil Stockpiling

00:26:53 – Supply Cost Curve

00:30:51 – Underinvestment Trends

00:36:30 – Demand Surge Analysis

00:42:04 – US Consumer Strength

00:51:51 – Investment Pitfalls

00:57:10 – Debt Paydown Strategies

01:01:05 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Substack: https://bisoninsights.info

X: https://x.com/BisonInsights

Website: https://bisoninterests.com

Joshua Young has been professionally investing in publicly traded oil and gas securities for nearly two decades, achieving benchmark outperformance as Bison’s CIO. Josh possesses a deep understanding of the E&P business model and operating environment, with notable experience as Chairman of Canadian E&P company RMP Energy (rebranded as Ironbridge Resources). Under Josh’s leadership, the company achieved a successful turnaround, outperforming peers and ultimately being acquired at a 78% premium. Josh is the author of numerous articles on oil & gas investments and is a frequent guest speaker at various energy industry conferences.

Prior to Bison, Josh began his career as a management consultant for Fortune 500 companies and private equity firms. He later worked as an investment analyst for a private equity fund and served as an energy investment analyst at a multi-billion-dollar single-family office, which was nominated as Institutional Investor’s Single Family Office of the Year in 2008. Josh holds a B.S. in Economics with honors from the University of Chicago.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Clive Thompson to the show. Clive Thompson is Retired Wealth Manager and Swiss Banker and, Host of the ‘Clive Thompson’ YouTube Channel. The episode centers on the current state of precious metals markets, with a particular focus on silver and gold. Thompson highlights a critical shift in the silver market, where industrial demand now exceeds mine supply. He explains that this dynamic is creating significant pressure on the market, with industrial consumers becoming increasingly concerned about potential silver shortages. The gap between physical and paper silver prices has widened dramatically, indicating underlying market tensions and potential supply chain disruptions.

Regarding investment strategies, Thompson advocates for a measured approach to precious metals. He recommends investors gradually accumulate physical silver and gold as a form of insurance against potential financial system instability. He emphasizes that these assets should be viewed as a protective measure rather than a short-term speculation opportunity. The conversation also explores broader economic trends, including rising government debt, central bank behaviors, and potential future monetary systems. Thompson suggests that the increasing global debt burden could lead to significant financial transformations, potentially including the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) that might restrict financial freedoms.

On gold and mining stocks, Thompson sees significant potential. He explains that rising gold prices create leveraged profit opportunities for mining companies, with potential for substantial share price appreciation. He advises diversification within mining investments, recommending investors spread risk across different geographical regions and companies. Thompson’s insights are grounded in his extensive financial background, offering a nuanced perspective on precious metals as both an investment and a potential hedge against economic uncertainty. His approach is pragmatic, suggesting investors maintain a balanced portfolio while recognizing the potential volatility and systemic risks in the current financial landscape.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:01:03 – Silver Bull Run Fundamentals

00:02:15 – Supply Demand Gap Analysis

00:04:41 – Industrial Off-Take Agreements

00:06:07 – Silver Substitution Challenges

00:09:00 – Rising Investment Demand

00:10:39 – Physical Market Bifurcation

00:12:24 – COMEX Delivery Surge

00:18:48 – Future Price Potential

00:21:18 – Retail Investor Strategies

00:24:51 – Gold Portfolio Drivers

00:32:24 – Global Debt Unsustainability

00:34:08 – CBDC Rationing Scenarios

00:42:17 – Mining Stocks Leverage

00:51:39 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Website: https://clivethompson.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@clivethompson-jc9my/featured

Clive is a retired wealth manager and former managing director at UBP in Geneva, Switzerland.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Gerald Celente to the show. Gerald Celente is Author, Founder, and Publisher of Trends Research Institute and Journal. The conversation delves into complex geopolitical and economic trends, with Celente offering a critical perspective on global politics, international conflicts, and economic dynamics. Celente provides a scathing critique of U.S. foreign policy, highlighting the disconnect between political rhetoric and actual actions, particularly focusing on leaders like Trump, Obama, and Biden. He argues that U.S. interventions in countries like Iran, Venezuela, and others are fundamentally driven by oil interests and geopolitical control rather than humanitarian concerns.

Celente extensively explores the shifting global economic landscape asserting that the 21st century will be the “Chinese century.” He points to China’s significant investments in infrastructure, education, and emerging technologies like AI, contrasting this with what he sees as America’s declining innovation and increasing focus on military spending.

Regarding economic trends, Celente predicts a potentially catastrophic economic scenario, which he terms the “greatest depression.” He emphasizes the critical role of precious metals, particularly gold and silver, as safe-haven assets during periods of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Gerald highlights the massive U.S. national debt, potential digital currency implementations, and the ongoing erosion of the dollar’s global dominance. Celente is particularly critical of mainstream media, describing journalism as “dead” and advocating for comprehensive, multi-perspective reporting.

Guest Links:

Website: https://trendsjournal.com

X: https://x.com/@geraldcelente

Substack: https://trendsinthenews.substack.com

Gerald Celente is the Founder/Director of the Trends Research Institute and Publisher of the weekly Trends Journal magazine. He is the author of the highly acclaimed and best-selling books “Trend Tracking” and “Trends 2000” (Warner Books).

With a 43-year track record of identifying, tracking, and forecasting trends, Celente is world-renowned as today’s #1 Trend Forecaster. Celente has earned the reputation as a trusted name in trends for his many accurate forecasts; among them, the 1987 Stock Market crash, Dot com bust, “Gold Bull Run,” “Panic of ‘08,” the rise of organic foods, and the popularity of gourmet coffee long before Starbucks was a household name.

Celente, who developed the Globalnomic methodology to identify, track, forecast, and manage trends, is a political atheist. Unencumbered by political dogma, rigid ideology, or conventional wisdom, Celente, whose motto is “Think for Yourself,” observes and analyzes current events forming future trends for what they are – not for how he wants them to be.

A true American Patriot, Celente owns three pre-Revolutionary stone buildings on the most historic corner in America, where the seeds of Democracy were sown, Colonial Kingston, New York’s first Capitol.

Self-described as a “Warrior for the Prince of Peace,” Gerald Celente is also the Founder “Occupy Peace & Freedom,” a not-for-profit movement to honor the Constitution and Bill of Rights and restore Freedoms.