Palisades Gold Radio

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis MSA to the show. Michael Oliver opens the discussion by highlighting what he considers the most explosive signal in his decades-long career: the historic undervaluation of gold and silver miners relative to gold. He explained that for decades, the XAU index averaged around 25% of the gold price, but this ratio has collapsed and is currently trading near 9%.

Oliver pointed to a critical technical breakout occurring in the GDX-to-gold spread, which is moving above a 13-year resistance range. This breakout, he argued, is a powerful signal not just for miners to vastly outperform the metal, but also for an impending dramatic price advance in gold itself, as the spread only rises during precious metals bull runs.

The conversation shifted to the broader macroeconomic backdrop, where Oliver identified a “nuclear” government bond crisis as the primary catalyst. He warned that the US Treasury market is far larger than the stock market and is now slipping into quarter-century lows in price, reflecting extreme distrust among investors. Oliver stated that central banks will have no choice but to print money aggressively to defend their debt markets, which will further degrade the currency unit and propel gold higher. He believes this environment will force large asset managers to rotate out of an overvalued stock market, where key financial sector ETFs are showing imminent technical breakdowns, into a vastly underpriced commodity sector.

Regarding other commodities, Oliver maintained that silver is the single most explosive market, being historically repressed relative to gold and the broader money supply. He suggested that if silver merely caught up to the rise seen in other metals since the 1980s, a price of $500 would not be shocking. On oil, he argued it remains vastly underpriced relative to both its historical highs and the decay of the dollar, predicting a broad repricing of commodities as an asset class. Finally, Oliver cautioned that the US dollar index is on the verge of a sharp decline, breaking down from a year-long consolidation, which could accelerate gold’s rally and inflict further damage on US equities.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:01:08 – Miners Relative Value to Gold

00:02:27 – GDX Spread Chart Analysis

00:05:44 – Breakout Implications for Miners

00:08:30 – Precious Metals and Bond Crisis

00:11:15 – US Government Bond Market Crisis

00:16:30 – Financial Sector Momentum Breakdown

00:19:03 – Capital Rotation and Liquidity

00:21:38 – Gold History Versus Stocks

00:25:15 – Silver Explosive Upside Potential

00:28:20 – Inflation & Debt Expansion

00:31:00 – Commodities Oil and Asset Shift

00:41:45 – Dollar Index Implications

00:43:35 – Platinum Group Elements Outlook

00:44:52 – MSA Details & Dollar Crisis

Guest Links:

Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/

X: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA

Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5

Email: mailto:michaeloliver@olivermsa.com

Email MSA above, and they will send you this week’s report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.

J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.

In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.

In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Henrik Zeberg to the show. Henrik Zeberg is Head Macro Economist at Swissblock. Zeberg believes the equity rally is entering its final phase, with a major market top likely within the next quarter. He warns this will not be an ordinary correction but a significant downturn, driven by a weakening US economy that many market participants have yet to recognize. The consumer is in a particularly fragile state, with depleted savings, rising credit card delinquencies, and housing affordability at crisis levels, all pointing to an imminent economic rollover.

Zeberg explains that the current cycle mirrors past business cycles, where high rates and inflation eventually stall growth. However, this time the situation is exacerbated by the massive debt accumulation enabled by years of quantitative easing and artificially suppressed rates. The unwinding of these distortions will be severe, combining elements of both the 2000 tech bust and the 2008 financial crisis, but likely worse due to opaque private credit risks and the psychological impact of recent inflation on consumer behavior. Gold is expected to face headwinds initially as a liquidity crunch and a strengthening US dollar cause a pullback, potentially to $3,100 or lower.

However, once the Federal Reserve is forced to intervene aggressively with yield suppression, gold will enter a powerful rally, potentially rising fivefold in a few years and outperforming equities dramatically. Zeberg sees this as a buying opportunity for physical gold, recommending dollar-cost averaging. Silver and gold miners will also benefit, though they may suffer during the initial downturn. Zeberg advises listeners to prepare for a significant stock market decline, suggesting that taking profits now and developing a contingency plan is prudent.

While the US dollar may be the best near-term safe haven, precious metals and commodities will be the ultimate beneficiaries when the Fed steps in for real. He encourages following his work through Swissblock’s services and his Substack for ongoing analysis.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:01:04 – Macro Picture and Equity Rally

00:03:22 – Drivers Behind Market Top

00:05:27 – State of the Consumer

00:09:00 – Inflation and Business Cycle

00:13:50 – Debt-Loads Gov’t & Consumers

00:18:35 – How Bad Recession Could Be

00:21:45 – Equities and NASDAQ Decline

00:24:05 – Chain of Events in Crash

00:27:26 – Government Debt Intersection

00:33:54 – Energy and Oil Crisis?

00:37:00 – Gold Fate in Liquidity Crunch

00:44:24 – Gold Pullback Expectations

00:45:20 – Gold Miners & Upside?

00:49:20 – Stock Market Topping

00:55:00 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com

X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg

Website: https://swissblock.net/

Henrik Zeberg is a Macroeconomist (M.Sc. Econ) from the University of Copenhagen. He is a Business Cycles student, Elliott Wave practitioner, and Chartist. He is the Head Macro Economist at Swissblock where he writes the Zeberg letter a comprehensive monthly macroeconomic report.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Art Berman to the show. Art Berman is The Energy Realist. Berman explains that the initially feared catastrophic disruption from the Iran War has been partially offset, with production losses revised down to roughly 5 million barrels a day, though he stresses this remains a historically massive number. The absence of immediate global economic collapse is attributed to significant demand destruction, particularly in China, and the critical role of inventories. Using an analogy of a savings account versus a paycheck, he distinguishes between strategic and commercial reserves, noting that ample inventories have cushioned the market, preventing oil prices from spiking as they did during the Ukraine war when stocks were dangerously low. However, he warns that this cushion is finite and being drawn down at an alarming rate, with his comparative inventory model suggesting severe price pressures could materialize by November.

The discussion highlights the profound risks associated with shut-in production, where wells may never return to prior output levels due to complex subsurface physics. Berman describes the situation as a permanent “phase shift,” arguing the global oil system is fragmenting into distinct geopolitical blocs and will never revert to its pre-war state. He emphasizes that alternative supplies are not a simple solution because crude oil quality varies dramatically; light U.S. shale oil cannot easily replace medium-grade Persian Gulf crude required by many refineries.

Looking at the longer term, Berman frames oil as a mature, declining resource, stating that civilization must eventually adapt to the end of perpetual growth, a transition that will fundamentally reshape society.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:44 – Iran War Energy Disruptions

00:03:00 – China Demand Destruction Analysis

00:05:24 – Diesel Prices Regional Impacts

00:06:52 – Stocks Versus Flows Distinction

00:09:04 – Savings Account Analogy

00:18:14 – Global Inventories Assessment

00:22:37 – Persian Gulf Production Losses

00:33:15 – Lost Production Focus

00:39:51 – Phase Shift Market Scenario

00:50:53 – Refinery Tightness Crack Spreads

00:59:03 – Comparative Inventory Tool

01:21:20 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Website: https://artberman.com

X: https://x.com/aeberman12

Art Berman isn’t your run-of-the-mill energy consultant; he’s a full-blown disruptor in a realm riddled with myths. With 40 years in petroleum geology and an intriguing twist – a degree in Middle Eastern history – Art slices through energy complexities with academic rigor and market savvy.

Forget what you thought you knew. This man’s comparative inventory approach is a guiding light for traders, investors, and policymakers. And he doesn’t just spend his time consulting. Art is an adjunct lecturer at the University of Houston, your go-to expert witness, and an electrifying keynote speaker who doesn’t mince words.

In a sector awash with misinformation, Art’s your source for gut-punching, data-backed truths. His clientele spans from ambitious investors to globe-spanning corporations, all seeking decisions steeped in reality, not fantasy. Love him or hate him, one thing is certain: Art Berman is an undeniable force in the energy sector.

Away from the charts and graphs, Art enjoys Baroque music and psychology and spending family time with his wife, kids, grandkids, and his dog, Lily. So, are you ready for the unvarnished truth? Look no further.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Ted Oakley to the show. Ted Oakley is Founder and Managing Partner | Oxbow Advisors. The discussion explores investment strategy, focusing on long-term holdings, hard assets, and contrarian opportunities. Oakley emphasizes the importance of a longer investment horizon, typically holding stocks for three to ten years, while acknowledging that most traders focus on short-term moves, often using leverage and options—which he views as risky. He notes that his firm recently bought back gold, silver, and mining stocks after significant corrections, considering them cheap on a cash flow basis, and continues to hold energy positions.

Oakley expresses caution regarding certain AI-driven tech companies, citing concerns about debt levels, earnings quality, and the sustainability of current growth. He sees parallels to the late 1990s and the potential for revaluation if commercial viability falters. He advocates maintaining liquidity to seize opportunities during market dislocations, often holding substantial short-term treasuries alongside gold as a currency hedge against dollar depreciation and long-term inflationary pressures from rising government debt and deficits.

The conversation turns to gold, with Oakley viewing the recent pullback to around $4,000 as a buying opportunity for those with a multi-year outlook, expecting much higher prices driven by central bank purchases and de-dollarization trends. He sees gold miners and royalty companies as undervalued, noting strong balance sheets and wide profit margins relative to extraction costs. Silver is also considered attractive, though more volatile. On energy, Oakley highlights the sector’s profitability even at moderate oil prices and the structural supply constraints from underinvestment. He recommends a diversified approach across producers, pipelines, and service companies, focusing on quality names bought at a discount to intrinsic value. He also discusses critical minerals and iron ore as part of a broader hard asset strategy to protect against currency debasement.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:01:00 – Current Investment Opportunities

00:02:23 – Long-term Investment Horizon

00:05:05 – Microsoft and AI Concerns

00:09:37 – Liquidity and Market Risks

00:11:29 – Debasement and Hard Assets

00:14:36 – Gold Market Opportunity

00:18:19 – Silver vs Gold Thesis

00:28:34 – Gold Miners Landscape

00:31:30 – Royalty Companies Value

00:34:01 – Energy Sector Fundamentals

00:39:13 – Critical Minerals Exposure

00:46:35 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:

X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors

Website: https://oxbowadvisors.com

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/OxbowAdvisors

J. Ted Oakley, CFA, CFP, is Managing Director and Founder of Oxbow Advisors. With more than forty years of experience in advising high net worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, Thoughtful Money, The David Lin Report, and many more.

Mr. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran.

Mr. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 40 years ago. He is the author of Eleven books: You Sold Your Company, $30 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, Your Money Mentality, Stay Rich with a Balanced Portfolio & his 2025 latest release: Second Generation Wealth.

Mr. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation. Mr. Oakley recently arranged for Foster Angels in South Texas to represent The Heart Gallery of Texas to further their adoption efforts.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Peter Carlin to the show. Peter Carlin is Commodity Broker, Trader, and Author. The discussion opens with the extreme volatility in global energy markets, where the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions are creating severe logistical bottlenecks. Carlin explains that the real crisis is not crude oil supply per se, but a mismatch between the sour crude grades needed by Western refineries and the sweet crude that is more readily available.

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being heavily drawn down, particularly its sour component, to feed refineries and supply Europe, while refinery utilization rates in America are running unsustainably high, threatening system integrity. He notes that the situation is fluid and that any return to normal is unlikely; the geopolitical landscape has fundamentally shifted, with the US military presence in the Gulf diminished and Iran successfully exporting oil to China, settling in renminbi via alternative payment systems.

The conversation shifts to gold and currencies. Carlin observes that gold’s recent price action is linked to the apparent disappearance of a distressed seller in the Gulf, now that loadings have resumed. He sees the yen’s weakness as a key barometer for gold, arguing that intervention cannot save the Japanese currency, and a sovereign debt crisis there would trigger contagion, driving investors toward gold and equities. He advises against chasing strength and recommends buying gold on weakness, cautioning that the public tends to do the opposite.

Silver, while volatile, remains a leveraged play on fear but requires extreme caution due to professional traders dominating the market. Finally, Carlin shares the story behind his book, “A Pocketbook of Gold,” co-authored with the legendary Jim Sinclair, who famously called the 1970s gold bull market and the 2011 peak. The book, now available as a PDF, distills Sinclair’s trading wisdom and serves as a survival manual for monetary turmoil. Carlin emphasizes the importance of disciplined, patient trading over speculative home runs, a lesson drawn from decades of market experience.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:01:10 – Gulf Conflict and Hormuz

00:03:42 – Oil Logistics and Shipping

00:09:27 – Shale & Refining & SPR

00:14:07 – Economic Picture & Supply

00:19:20 – Geopolitical Shifts in Gulf

00:24:14 – Gold Devaluation Strategy

00:27:10 – Trading Crude Oil Markets

00:30:20 – Chinese Payment Systems

00:35:15 – Yen Intervention and Debt

00:43:40 – Debasement & Markets

00:51:12 – Silver Thesis

00:54:30 – Pocketbook of Gold

Guest Links:

Book: https://www.apocketbookofgold.com/

Peter D. Carlin has spent the past 20 years as a commodity broker and trader, having worked for such firms as ICAP, NatSource Tullett and Eurobrokers. He has also worked as a consultant for several multinationals in the field of energy risk management. As a journalist, Mr. Carlin has written for the Financial Times and Bloomberg and has published articles for Jane’s Defence, Money Week and numerous other journals. He regularly appears on the BBC, CNN, and NBC as a commentator.