Morning Brief

• Fed’s final 2025 cut, Netflix’s $72B Warner Bros deal, Apple shake-up

  US markets are quiet ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final decision of the year, with traders widely expecting a quarter-point “hawkish cut” and a fresh dot plot showing only one more cut penciled in for 2026. Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and the scope of any dissents will be key as officials juggle inflation, which remains roughly a whole point above target, a softening labor market, and a post-shutdown GDP rebound. The White House has also begun interviewing candidates for the next Fed chair, including former Governor Kevin Warsh, while NEC Director Kevin Hassett remains the perceived frontrunner. The AI trade faces its next test with Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) reporting after the bell. Oracle must convince Wall Street that massive OpenAI-linked data-center spending and negative free cash flow are justified by future revenue and remaining performance obligations. At the same time, Adobe navigates investor questions about AI competition from tools like Google’s Gemini and how effectively it can weave generative AI into Creative Cloud. At the same time, bond yields on the 10-year and 30-year remain elevated even as markets bet on more easing next year, reflecting concerns over debt, inflation, and policy uncertainty. In media and tech, Netflix (NFLX) has agreed to buy the studio and streaming assets of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) in a $72 billion cash-and-stock deal, picking up HBO, Max and franchises like Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, DC, Friends, and The Sopranos while keeping that IP out of Paramount (PARA) and Comcast’s (CMCSA) hands. Analysts say the acquisition widens the gap between Netflix and its smaller rivals, but raises regulatory and integration questions. Apple (AAPL) is under fresh scrutiny after a wave of senior departures in operations, design, AI, and legal, even as iPhone and services demand keep the stock near record highs. Trending tickers include SpaceX, which is reportedly eyeing a 2026 IPO valuing the company near $1.5 trillion, GE Vernova (GEV) after an upbeat AI-driven power outlook, and Chewy (CHWY) on stronger customer spend and improving active users. Takeaways: Fed expected to deliver a 25 bp “hawkish cut” and update its dot plot at the final meeting of 2025 Internal dissents and the next Fed chair race add uncertainty to the 2026 rate path Oracle and Adobe earnings serve as a fresh stress test for the AI infrastructure and software trade Netflix to acquire Warner Bros' studio and streaming assets for $72B, tightening its grip on top Hollywood IP Apple faces a high-profile management reshuffle even as iPhone and services strength keep investors onside Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves. Thoughts? Questions? Fan mail? Please email us at [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• Netflix’s $72B Warner Bros deal, key PCE print, Apple exec exodus

  US markets open little changed as investors digest a blockbuster media deal and brace for delayed inflation data. Netflix (NFLX) has agreed to buy the studio and streaming assets of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) in a $72 billion cash-and-stock deal, scooping up HBO, Max, and iconic franchises like Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, DC, Friends, The Sopranos, and more. The acquisition caps a fierce bidding war that included Paramount Global (PARA) and Comcast (CMCSA) and marks Netflix’s biggest-ever swing into legacy Hollywood. Analysts say the move cements Netflix’s lead in streaming but raises questions about integration costs, labor, and regulatory risk, especially with Paramount still signaling it may keep fighting for a role in the process. At the macro level, Wall Street is watching the September PCE report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, after its release was delayed by the 43-day government shutdown. Economists expect core PCE to rise 0.2% month over month and 2.8% year over year — slightly below the Fed’s prior 3.1% year-end projection — but the data is stale and unlikely to shift expectations for a rate cut next week. Fed officials remain split, with some policymakers worried about sticky inflation and others focused on labor-market softness. Apple (AAPL) is also in focus after a wave of senior departures, including longtime COO Jeff Williams, the company’s general counsel, its AI chief, and design lead Alan Dye, who is heading to Meta (META). While the exits raise fresh questions about Tim Cook’s eventual succession and Apple’s AI strategy, analysts note iPhone 17 Pro demand and services revenue remain strong, and the stock is still up double digits year to date. In trending tickers, Southwest Airlines (LUV) cut its 2025 profit outlook on shutdown-related flight disruptions and higher fuel costs, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) slid after AI server deals were pushed into 2026, and Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) rallied on its strongest quarterly sales growth in four years and a raised full-year outlook. Takeaways: Netflix to acquire Warner Bros. studio and streaming assets for $72B, grabbing HBO/Max and top global franchises PCE inflation print finally arrives after shutdown delay but is unlikely to change next week’s Fed decision Apple faces a high-profile management shake-up as key execs in ops, design, and AI depart Southwest trims guidance on shutdown-related disruptions; HPE pushes some AI server deals into 2026 Victoria’s Secret posts its best sales growth in four years and raises its full-year outlook Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves. Thoughts? Questions? Fan mail? Email us at [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• AI race tilts toward Google, jobs data weakens, Macy’s cautious on holiday

  US markets open mixed as fresh data shows the labor market cooling, and investors reassess where the AI boom is headed next. ADP reported that private employers shed 32,000 jobs in November, versus expectations for a gain of 10,000, with companies with fewer than 50 workers cutting 120,000 positions, and weakness was noted in manufacturing, information, and construction. The report reinforces the notion of a K-shaped economy. It has traders pricing in roughly a 90% chance of a 25-bp Fed cut at next week’s meeting, even as Wall Street strategists remain broadly bullish on 2026, with S&P 500 targets clustered between 7,100 and 8,000. At the same time, the fulcrum of the AI trade may be shifting. Alphabet’s Gemini is gaining ground on OpenAI’s ChatGPT, with Sensor Tower data showing global monthly active users up about 30% for Gemini from August to November versus roughly 5% growth for ChatGPT, prompting talk that investors now favor Google’s diversified ad and search cash flows over OpenAI’s capital-intensive model. Microsoft (MSFT) is reportedly cutting AI software sales quotas, raising new questions about enterprise adoption speed and monetization. Guests on the show argue that the next phase of leadership could shift from AI “winners” like Nvidia (NVDA) to AI “enablers” in power, construction, and data center infrastructure, as AI-related capital expenditures are forecast to exceed $7 trillion globally by 2030. On the consumer side, Macy’s (M) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) both beat on revenue and earnings and raised full-year guidance. Still, Macy’s stock is under pressure after management issued cautious Q4 commentary, stating that shoppers will remain “choiceful,” implying full-year declines in sales and profit compared to 2024. Reimagined Macy’s stores and luxury banner Bloomingdale’s posted standout growth, highlighting continued strength among higher-income shoppers, while Dollar Tree’s results underscore how stretched lower-income households are, prioritizing essentials over discretionary items. In trending tickers, Delta Air Lines (DAL) warned of a $200 million profit hit from the historic government shutdown, Marvell Technology (MRVL) jumped on an earnings beat and a multibillion-dollar deal for Celestial AI, and American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) rallied after a beat-and-raise quarter powered by sharper merchandising and buzzy celebrity campaigns. Takeaways: ADP shows private employers cutting 32K jobs in November, with small businesses hit hardest and markets pricing in a December Fed rate cut Gemini usage is growing faster than ChatGPT as investors debate whether Alphabet’s AI model is more sustainable than OpenAI’s spending-heavy approach Microsoft reportedly lowers AI software sales quotas, fueling questions about near-term AI monetization Macy’s and Dollar Tree both beat and raise guidance, but Macy’s cautious holiday outlook and K-shaped consumer trends weigh on sentiment Delta flags a $200M shutdown hit, Marvell buys Celestial AI, and American Eagle pops on better merchandising and upgraded guidance Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves. Thoughts? Questions? Fan mail? Please email us at [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• Stocks rebound, Bitcoin steadies, leveraged crypto ETFs crash

  US futures are higher after Monday’s sharp selloff, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC), Dow (^DJI), and Nasdaq (^IXIC) all turning green and the Russell 2000 leading gains. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is holding above $87,000 after its worst drop since March, with traders watching key support at $80,000 and resistance near $110,000. Leveraged crypto ETFs MSTX and MSTU are down more than 80% this year despite Strategy injecting a $1.4B reserve to stabilize payouts. At the same time, institutional participation is rising: Bank of America now recommends a 1–4% crypto allocation, and Vanguard is allowing crypto-heavy ETFs and mutual funds on its platform. Treasury yields remain elevated after their biggest surge since 2008, while markets still expect a 25 bp Fed cut next week. Strategists are watching the U.S. dollar near the 100.5 level for direction. Kevin Hassett — a leading candidate for Fed Chair — is drawing attention for a new digital-asset policy blueprint that could shape 2026 crypto regulation. Takeaways: Futures rise after Monday’s selloff; small caps lead Bitcoin stabilizes above $87K; key levels at $80K and $110K Leveraged crypto ETFs sink 80%+ even after a $1.4B reserve Bank of America endorses crypto exposure; Vanguard reopens platform to crypto funds Yields stay elevated ahead of expected Fed cut; dollar strength remains a risk Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves. Thoughts? Questions? Fan mail? Email us at [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• Stocks fall to start December, Bitcoin sinks, Fed decision looms

  US stock futures are sliding as markets kick off December in risk-off mode. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) enters the month after barely securing a seventh straight monthly gain, while crypto leads the selloff. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell below $86,000, dragging Ether and Solana lower as thin liquidity and ETF outflows fueled renewed volatility. Strategists note Bitcoin’s December pattern tends to be flat-to-consolidating, with near-term ranges now pegged between $70,000 and $100,000 amid ongoing selling pressure . Markets are also watching the Federal Reserve. Traders are pricing in a 25 bp rate cut at the December 10 meeting, while Washington prepares for a major announcement: President Trump says he has selected the next Fed Chair and will reveal the choice “soon.” Kevin Hassett — the president’s top economic adviser — is widely viewed as the frontrunner, sparking debate over how dovish leadership could reshape rate expectations and the US dollar . Investors will finally receive delayed economic data this week, including the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation report, postponed during the shutdown. Bond yields are rising, with the 10-year climbing to 4.06% and the 30-year to 4.72%, even as the dollar weakens — a rare divergence tied to Japanese rate-hike speculation and shifts in global capital flows . Holiday shopping is also in focus this Cyber Monday. Adobe expects $14.2 billion in online spending today, with peak buying between 8–10 PM where consumers could spend $16 million per minute. Early Black Friday data shows shoppers remain highly deal-driven, with steady demand for electronics, furniture, and apparel. This week brings earnings from Macy’s (M), Dollar General (DG), and Dollar Tree (DLTR) — key reads on how both high-income and low-income consumers handled the shutdown period . In trending tickers, Synopsys (SNPS) jumps after Nvidia (NVDA) announced a $2 billion investment in the chip-software leader; MicroStrategy (MSTR) unveiled a $1.4 billion dollar reserve to avoid selling Bitcoin during downturns; and Accenture (ACN) launched a broad partnership with OpenAI to accelerate enterprise adoption of generative AI systems . Takeaways: Stocks fall as December starts in risk-off mode; Bitcoin slides below $86K Traders price in a 25 bp December cut as Trump prepares to announce the next Fed Chair Delayed PCE inflation data arrives this week; yields rise even as the dollar weakens Cyber Monday set for $14.2B in sales; shoppers chase deals and big-ticket items Synopsys surges on Nvidia’s $2B bet; MicroStrategy builds dollar reserve; Accenture expands OpenAI partnership Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves. Thoughts? Questions? Fan mail? Email us at [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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