Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/

Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Capital joins Monetary Matters to discuss why they aren’t rushing to short AI pretenders and fakers until more supply of speculative companies hits the market from big IPOs. They also discuss the increasing dominance of flows over fundamentals in US markets and abroad and Muddy Waters expanding investment focus including: metals and mining stocks, Vietnam, and momentum strategies.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:44 AI and Market Speculation

05:14 Challenges in Short Selling AI Stocks

17:58 Pictet PQNT

19:09 AI Pretenders

21:41 Mining Investments and Strategies

36:51 Red Flags in Investor Presentations

39:07 Geopolitical Considerations

40:15 Fraud in Chinese Companies

49:43 Vietnam and India Investment Opportunities

59:05 Momentum Strategy in the S&P 500

01:05:07 Activist Short Selling and Future Plans

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/

Alexander Campbell, founder of Rose AI and former head of commodities at Bridgewater, joins the show to dissect the structural drivers behind the silver market and the transformative potential of artificial intelligence. Campbell details the "Silver Squeeze" thesis, attributing the metal's volatility to a combination of inelastic industrial demand from solar manufacturing and speculative capital flight out of China. He clarifies complex market dynamics, specifically the "Shanghai Premium" and the logistical friction involved in moving physical metal between Western and Eastern exchanges. Shifting to technology, Campbell warns of an impending "air pocket" for traditional software stocks, arguing that AI agents will disrupt companies that function primarily as "a database and a front end". He outlines a future defined by local compute and open-source models, predicting that value will accrue to data ownership and physical hardware rather than legacy SaaS applications. The conversation concludes with Campbell’s macro strategy of being long the "world of stuff" and data while betting against the "economy of paper" amidst de-globalization. Recorded February 2, 2026.

Alex’s pieces:

“Silver: The Only Money That Generates Electricity”: https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/silver-the-only-money-that-generates

“The Silver Squeeze”: How Solar Threatens a Decade of Deficits

https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/the-silver-squeeze

“When You Feel Pain, Remember to Reflect”: https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/when-you-feel-pain-remember-to-reflect

“The Protection Portfolio: September 2025”:https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/the-protection-portfolio-september

Follow Alex Campbell on X https://x.com/abcampbell

Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

World Silver Survey 2025:https://silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/World_Silver_Survey-2025.pdf

November 2025 Interim Market Review: https://silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Silver_Institute_Silver_Interim_2025.pdf

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Raghav Khanna, managing director at Oaktree’s Global Private Debt strategy, joins Jack to discuss the ins and outs of the credit industry. Raghav offers insight into the opaque world of lending, including his opinions on the First Brands Group fiasco, private credit, and artificial intelligence. Raghav not only explains recent trends in credit, but gives his thoughts on where things may be headed as technology shifts. Recorded on January 22nd, 2026.

 

Follow Raghav Khanna on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/raghavkhanna/

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/jackfarley96

 

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Monetary Matters on:

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This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/

In this interview, Joseph Wang of FedGuy.com discusses various levers the Trump administration could pull to lower mortgage rates, even without the Federal Reserve's direct involvement. These include directing government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to increase their mortgage holdings, potentially by lifting their current portfolio caps. Wang also notes that expanding access to cheap financing from Federal Home Loan Banks for mortgage REITs could be another avenue. Beyond housing, Wang predicts that President Trump will significantly influence the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to more interest rate cuts than the market currently anticipates. He suggests that Chair Powell will likely leave his position in May, allowing Trump to appoint a successor. Wang is bullish on the US economy, citing tailwinds like a potential productivity boom, strong credit creation, and stimulative fiscal policy. However, he cautions that AI stocks are in a bubble, though he believes the technology itself will benefit the broader economy by increasing productivity. Recorded January 29, 2026.

Joseph Wang’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12

“Sleeping Giants” (Joseph’s piece on Fannie & Freddie): https://fedguy.com/sleeping-giants/

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The relentless surge in precious metals continues, with gold seeing gains in all but three trading days this year and silver holding above $110 despite some analyst warnings that the rally may be nearing an end. While some attribute these moves to a "debasement trade" or a weakening US dollar, the speakers argue that silver’s rise is primarily driven by real industrial demand and supply shortages rather than pure speculation. Beyond metals, the 2026 market is being shaped by a "hawkish" Federal Reserve that signaled it is unlikely to cut rates in March due to a stable labor market and elevated inflation. On the earnings front, Microsoft and Meta reported strong revenue but faced differing investor reactions over massive capital expenditures in AI. Meanwhile, Tesla saw its stock rally despite a double-digit decline in automotive revenue, as investors focused on its transition into a "physical AI" company specializing in robotics and autonomous driving. Finally, a "doomsday" narrative is currently haunting software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies, as investors weigh whether AI will commoditize software or if established brands can maintain their high customer retention. Recorded evening of January 28, 2026.

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://x.com/JackFarley96

Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe

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