Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) President Trump signed an interim deal to end the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, despite criticism from Republicans. The memorandum of understanding is now in effect, and it envisions the rapid reopening of the strait and immediate sanctions waivers for Iranian oil. The deal has prompted criticism from some of Trump's allies, who say it amounts to a victory for Tehran and that the US is conceding too much, with talks on nuclear issues and potential further financial gains for Iran to follow.
2) Traders dumped short-term Treasuries and bet on interest rate hikes after Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh made clear the central bank won’t tolerate high inflation. The hawkish message was driven home by the projections of individual Fed members, half of whom expect to raise rates by the end of the year. The Fed’s message triggered repositioning in markets, with futures traders expecting a quarter-point rate hike by October and 30-year Treasury yields slipping to the lowest since late April.
3) A ticker-tape parade celebrating the NBA Champion New York Knicks will step off at 10 a.m. from Bowling Green in Lower Manhattan, traveling north along Broadway, and concludes at City Hall Plaza with a ticketed ceremony. The city is preparing for enormous crowds, with spectators expected to number in the millions, and the NYPD will have 10,000 officers at the event. Viewing areas along the route open at 6 a.m., and police will close access points once viewing areas reach capacity, while the mayor’s office gave away 600 tickets to the City Hall ceremony in a public lottery.
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Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz and Scarlet Fu discuss remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.

Warsh vowed to restore price stability following his first policy meeting since taking the helm of the US central bank, after officials left interest rates unchanged and signaled growing support for rate hikes this year.

“Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people, but the recent past need not be prologue,” Warsh said in his debut press conference as chairman. Officials “are unambiguous and unanimous. This committee will deliver price stability.”
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Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz and Scarlet Fu break down the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.
Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged and were split over whether they expect to raise rates this year.
Policymakers’ new projections indicated nine officials foresee at least one quarter-point hike this year, with six anticipating at least two. Another nine expected no move or a cut.
Notably, only 18 officials out of 19 entered their projections for rates at the end of 2026. The absence of an entry suggests new Chairman Kevin Warsh, who has been critical of so-called forward guidance, declined to submit a rate forecast.
In its first gathering under Warsh’s leadership, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously Wednesday to hold its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

1) Iran would be allowed to start oil exports immediately under an interim deal with the US and gain access to a $300 billion economic development program. The US Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil and petrochemical products immediately after the memorandum is signed, and the US will end its naval blockade of Iranian ports. The US and its regional partners would create a plan to rehabilitate Iran and allow for its economic development, with financing of at least $300 billion, according to the draft document.

2) Voters headed to the polls in four states and the District of Columbia. The biggest races to watch were two runoff elections in Georgia, where President Trump's endorsement led to mixed results. In the Republican Senate race, Trump-backed Congressman Mike Collins defeated former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley by an 11 point margin - 55.5% to 44.5%. Meanwhile, in the governor's race, President Trump's favored candidate, Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones, lost to billionaire Rick Jackson, 52.7% to 47.4%. It was also a historic primary night in Washington DC. For the first time in 36 years, Democrats have picked a nominee for delegate to Congress who is not Eleanor Holmes Norton. Councilmember Robert White ran away with the nomination with 63.2% of the vote.

3) Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to hold interest rates steady, posing a test for new chairman Kevin Warsh as inflation erodes households' purchasing power. Several officials have outlined scenarios that could warrant rate hikes and want to eliminate language suggesting their next move is likely to be a cut. Investors will be listening for how strongly Warsh expresses support for the central bank's commitment to returning inflation to the Fed's 2% goal.
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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) US President Donald Trump keeps repeating that the Strait of Hormuz — through which one fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally flow — will reopen by Friday.But on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit, where Iran likely dominated Monday’s dinner conversation, it’s clear that his European allies don’t share his optimism. They disagree that trade can resume by week’s end, like Trump promised, and have practical questions about what exactly was agreed before they can commit to de-mining missions and patrols.
2) The UK announced new sanctions on what it said was a Russian intelligence network that has been acquiring Western technology for its military to use in Ukraine, as well as a further clampdown on its shadow fleet and illicit finance programs. Britain’s Foreign Office said it was exposing a front company called LLC Neptune Co Ltd, which it said was controlled by Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, and was involved in covertly procuring Western technology for the country’s military.
3) SpaceX shares surged in premarket trading, putting the stock on track to extend a rally following its blockbuster debut last week. The shares rose 11% in New York, poised to build on the more than 40% gain across SpaceX’s first two sessions as a public company. The gains have lifted the market value of the rocket and AI company founded by Elon Musk above $2.5 trillion as of Monday’s close, bringing it within striking distance of Amazon.com Inc.’s nearly $2.7 trillion valuation.
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