Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) President Trump indicated he may be preparing to wind down the war with Iran, boosting market optimism and restoring some stability to global energy prices. Peace talks with the Islamic Republic might restart “over the next two days,” the New York Post cited the president as saying. In a separate interview with ABC News, he said extending a two-week ceasefire that was clinched last week after nearly six weeks of fighting may not be necessary, hinting at significant near-term progress without elaborating. There are signs Tehran is also trying to avoid escalation, with authorities considering a pause in shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and jeopardizing fresh negotiations. The shift in the narrative from Washington — from announcing a total blockade of Hormuz to expectations of a possible breakthrough — has left many questions unanswered, including the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium.
2) Former Treasury Secretary and ex-Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she still sees prospects for a US interest-rate cut later this year, though the unfolding oil shock caused by the war in Iran clouds the outlook. “This is really a broad supply shock,” spreading from pump prices to LNG, fertilizers, food, shipping costs, and semiconductors, Yellen said at the HSBC Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong on Wednesday. While the need to raise rates can’t be ruled out, stable long-run inflation expectations suggest that scenario remains unlikely for now, Yellen said. Minutes of the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting, released last Wednesday in Washington, showed a growing number of officials worried the Iran war could further stoke inflation and wanted to make clear that the central bank may have to consider raising interest rates. In projections released after that meeting, policymakers had signaled an expectation for one interest-rate cut in 2026, unchanged from their December forecasts.
3) President Trump’s tariffs may be restored by July to the levels in place before the Supreme Court struck down many of his levies, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. The Treasury secretary said because the Section 301 tariff authority has already been tested in the courts, business leaders are able to start planning and making decisions around capital expenditures. Trump is seeking to restore his tariff wall using different authorities after the high court ruled that his use of emergency powers to impose those earlier duties was unconstitutional. After the Supreme Court struck down many of his global tariffs, Trump imposed a temporary 10% tariff that covers many imports. That levy is set to expire on July 24.
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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) The US and Iran are weighing further negotiations to extend a two-week ceasefire as President Trump presses ahead with a naval blockade to curb the Islamic Republic’s oil exports, a step aimed at extracting concessions in peace talks. The objective is to hold fresh discussions before the truce announced April 7 expires next week, according to people familiar with the matter. “We’ve been called this morning by the right people, the appropriate people, and they want to work a deal,” Trump said at the White House on Monday, hours after the US Navy began implementing the blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz to cut off vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas. The latest push shows the two sides haven’t given up on diplomacy after their first round of direct negotiations in Pakistan failed to produce an agreement. The war, which began when the US and Israel launched a bombing campaign against Iran on Feb. 28, has left thousands dead, damaged infrastructure and disrupted energy flows beyond the Persian Gulf, rattling markets and triggering a global price spike.
2) Chinese President Xi Jinping lamented a world in “disarray,” using some of his strongest language yet to describe a collapse of the Western-led international order as he vowed to play a constructive role in the Middle East. “The international order is crumbling into disarray,” Xi told Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Tuesday in Beijing, using a Chinese phrase indicating not only chaos but also moral decay. The comments, part of Xi’s first public statements on the Iran war since the conflict began more than a month ago, followed a flurry of visits by world leaders to Beijing and fresh economic data on Tuesday showing the war took a sharp toll on Chinese exports in March. Xi has framed his country as a stabilizing force in a world thrown into turmoil by President Trump’s erratic approach to trade and foreign policy. In an earlier meeting with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed, Xi reiterated that China would continue to play a “constructive role” in the Middle East.
3) Democrat Eric Swalwell and Republican Tony Gonzales said they plan on leaving their congressional seats in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct. “I am deeply sorry to my family, staff, and constituents for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past,” Swalwell said in a post on X on Monday announcing his intent to resign. He vowed to “fight the serious, false allegations made against me,” but also said he “must take responsibility and ownership for the mistakes I did make.” Shortly after, Republican Representative Tony Gonzales of Texas said in a separate said in a separate social media statement that he planned on filing his retirement from office “when Congress returns tomorrow.” Gonzales faced calls to resign after allegations that he had an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide. A growing number of lawmakers had called for the resignation of both men, arguing the allegations against them tarnished their ability to remain in Congress, with some calling for their expulsion. The resignations leave the Republicans’ slim majority in the US House of Representatives unchanged.
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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) President Trump said the US will begin a full naval blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz and threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance, escalating a standoff that has already brought the waterway to a near standstill and disrupted global energy supplies. The president’s announcement came hours after the US and Iran failed to reach a deal in direct talks in Pakistan, jeopardizing hopes of turning a fragile ceasefire into a lasting end to a war that has claimed thousands of lives. The negotiations collapsed because of differences over the nuclear issue, Trump said in a Truth Social posting on Sunday. The US military said Sunday that it would begin the blockade at 10 am New York time on Monday.
2) Peter Magyar, Hungary’s next prime minister, outlined sweeping changes after ending Viktor Orban’s 16-year rule in a landslide election victory that will redefine the country’s ties with the European Union, Russia and the US administration of President Trump. Magyar, a 45-year-old former insider of Orban’s nationalists, said the overwhelming victory for his Tisza party — translating into a two-thirds parliamentary majority — gave him a mandate to dismantle Orban’s increasingly authoritarian system and bring Hungary back into the European fold. Orban conceded the defeat, telling supporters that the result was “painful” for him. Magyar, whose conservative-leaning party has sought to unite disgruntled voters, called on the country’s president, top justices and chief prosecutor to all hand in their resignations during his victory speech in front of a cheering crowd in Budapest on Sunday. Magyar said they had put their political allegiance to Orban’s authoritarian system above their office’s responsibilities.
3) US Representative Eric Swalwell suspended his bid for governor of California after a series of sexual assault allegations threw his campaign into turmoil and prompted backers to flee. “I am suspending my campaign for governor,” Swalwell said in a post on social media on Sunday evening. He apologized to his supporters, adding “I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.” Swalwell’s exit upends a competitive and crowded race to lead the most populous US state. The 45-year-old, seven-term congressman from the San Fransisco Bay area, had been polling among the top Democrats to succeed Gavin Newsom, who is barred from seeking re-election because of term limits.
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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.
In the US – a look ahead to earnings from Netflix and a focus on three bank stocks for the week ahead.
In the UK – a look ahead to the next election in Hungary.
In Asia – a look ahead to Spain Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's trip to China.
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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) President Trump demanded Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising pressure on Tehran before talks to turn a fragile ceasefire into lasting peace. The truce remains shaky, with Kuwait reporting large-scale drone attacks on “vital” facilities overnight into Friday and accusing Iran and its proxy groups of violating the ceasefire announced by Washington and Tehran two days earlier. The war has already killed thousands of people and damaged energy infrastructure across the oil-rich Persian Gulf. US and Iranian delegations are set to meet in Pakistan on Saturday, with shipping through Hormuz — which handled about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas before the war — a central sticking point.
2) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he agreed to hold direct talks with Lebanon about the conflict, with the focus on disarming Hezbollah. Trump called the Israeli leader on Wednesday and asked him to scale back strikes to ensure the success of negotiations with Iran, NBC reported, citing an unidentified senior administration official. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Israel’s strikes in Lebanon are a “clear violation” of the ceasefire and “will render negotiations meaningless.”
3) Oil rose a second day after Saudi Arabia said its production capacity has been reduced due to attacks on energy infrastructure, but futures remain on track for their biggest weekly loss since June. Saudi Arabia’s press agency said the nation’s production capacity has been cut by around 600,000 barrels a day due to attacks on energy infrastructure. That figure accounts for roughly 10% of the kingdom’s normal crude exports, according to Bloomberg calculations. Meanwhile, strikes on a pumping station serving the East-West pipeline — which Saudi Arabia has been using to export crude via the Red Sea — crimped daily throughput by 700,000 barrels this week, according to the report. Kuwait also said it was intercepting drone attacks and that some vital facilities were targeted.
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