The global auto industry is splitting into two very different worlds — what legendary auto expert Michael Dunne calls “a tale of two countries.” Dunne, CEO of Dunne Insights LLC, has spent decades at the centre of the industry, including leadership roles as President of General Motors Indonesia and Managing Director of JD Power China.
On one side stands the United States, increasingly resembling a modern-day Cuba: a market dominated by oversized, fuel-hungry SUVs aimed at a shrinking audience, while legacy automakers squeeze the last profits from internal combustion engines. Last year alone, Detroit’s Big Three wrote off more than $50 billion in EV investments.
On the other side is China, moving at extraordinary speed and scale. The recent Beijing Auto Show showcased the country’s relentless innovation: 38 hectares of exhibition space — roughly 50 football fields — featuring 1,451 vehicles, including 181 world debuts, and attracting 1.3 million visitors, with only 65,000 coming from overseas. It is no longer just about BYD. Chinese giants such as Geely, SAIC, and FAW have caught up rapidly, transforming China into a market where internal combustion vehicles already feel like an afterthought.
Only two foreign automakers still command real respect in China: Toyota and Tesla. Others — including Honda, Nissan, and most European manufacturers — are steadily losing ground.
Meanwhile, much of the rest of the world is accelerating toward electrification as rising oil prices reshape consumer behaviour. Countries such as Thailand, the Philippines, Ethiopia, and Mexico are embracing EVs, while electric vehicle sales continue to surge across Europe.
Battery technology is still advancing, but the next decisive battleground is autonomy. Here, the United States maintains a lead through companies like Waymo and Tesla — though Chinese competitors are closing the gap quickly. 2026 may also mark the tipping point for electric trucks becoming mainstream, with adoption expected to accelerate rapidly once scale economics take hold.
So how can non-Chinese automakers compete? Not through protectionism, but by learning from China’s playbook: moving faster, investing more aggressively in next-generation technologies, and, in some cases, partnering directly with Chinese firms.
Yet another major challenge looms over the industry: excess manufacturing capacity. Factories in both Europe and China are currently operating at only around 50% utilisation, with the United States performing only slightly better.
Dunne’s upcoming book, Car Wars, due out next year, explores this seismic shift in detail. It tells the story of how China built the world’s most powerful EV ecosystem — and whether Western automakers can survive the collision.
Österreich