Hawkish Fed, Credit Stress & A K-Shaped America | Weekly Roundup
This week, we discuss markets wobbling as a pointless government shutdown, delayed data releases, and a hawkish Fed collide with rising credit stress, over-levered AI giants, and widening inequality. Enjoy!
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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
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Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1drPbriNOF50E3o6qdKikbqIYQy4qAuc6/view?usp=sharing
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Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.
https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:31) Shutdown Fallout
(03:59) Hawkish Fed Speeches
(07:52) AI Boom Meets Credit Stress
(12:14) Grayscale Ad
(12:53) AI Boom Meets Credit Stress (Con’t)
(15:51) Warning Signs for Society
(18:58) Hawkish Fed Pivot
(21:32) Tech Bubble & Societal Risks
(28:14) Grayscale Ad
(29:02) Tech Bubble & Societal Risks (Con’t)
(31:04) Policy Missteps & Persistent Inflation
(32:00) Bitcoin, Decentralization & the Future of Money
(33:10) The 2026 Acceleration Playbook
(36:15) Widening Inequality & Generational Divide
(44:11) Centralization, Fragility, & Systemic Risks
(49:24) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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51:11
LTCM Co-Founder on Risk, Leverage & Simplicity | Victor Haghani
In this episode, founder of Elm Wealth and co-founder of LTCM Victor Haghani shares lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and contrasts today’s highly levered hedge-fund world with LTCM’s era. He also explains Elm’s Dynamic Index Investing framework and why simplicity and discipline outperform complexity and return-chasing over time. Enjoy!
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Follow Victor: https://x.com/ElmWealth
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
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Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.
https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:04) Insights from Victor’s Storied Career
(09:22) Today’s Market vs the 90s
(16:32) Grayscale Ad
(17:11) Fat Tails & Return Chasing
(28:41) Grayscale Ad
(29:29) Is Discretionary Macro a Fool’s Game?
(37:42) Portfolio Construction & Managing Risk
(44:33) Balancing Risk, Sizing, & Expected Returns
(50:15) What is Good Diversification?
(55:55) Exotic Forms of Diversification
(59:52) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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1:02:20
America’s Two-Tier Economy Is Breaking Down | Weekly Roundup
This week, we discuss America’s decaying two-tier economy, with Main Street stuck in a silent recession, the Fed trapped between fiscal dominance and market structure rot, and younger generations turning to crypto and speculation as their only escape from a rigged system. Enjoy!
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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
__
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1f1h9636F5tXpNPX6R5KxLnSi6BUpBnFN/view?usp=sharing
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Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.
https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:05) Fourth Turning Vibes
(04:00) K-Shaped Economy Continues
(07:43) The Market is Broken
(10:57) Government Role in Markets
(11:57) Grayscale Ad
(12:34) Government Role in Markets
(17:47) Market Structure Decay
(21:16) The Death of Retail
(25:21) Generational Release Valve
(28:33) Labor Market vs Automation
(31:28) Grayscale Ad
(32:14) Political Pivot for 2026
(35:18) Government Shutdown Ending?
(37:32) Is Bitcoin Finally Bottoming?
(42:33) Sad Crypto Market Structure
(45:19) Solving Crypto’s Problems
(48:52) Giving Back to the System
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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51:26
The Next Chapter For Blockworks | Empire
In this episode from the Empire podcast, we discuss why Blockworks decided to shut down its news room. We then dive into why 2025 marks the start of a new chapter for the crypto industry, why we're still in a bull market, MegaETH's ICO, recent IPOs, M&A and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM
Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel
Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz
Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
__
Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.
https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:25) Why Blockworks Closed The News Division
(13:32) Grayscale Ad
(14:10) The Next Chapter For Blockworks
(20:06) It’s Still A Bull Market
(24:30) Securitize Plans To Go Public At a $1.25B Valuation
(31:21) Grayscale Ad
(32:44) Western Union Announces USDPT
(50:07) Mastercard Looks To Acquire Zerohash
(56:10) Will Stripe’s Tempo Be a Success?
(1:04:01) The MegaETH ICO
(1:07:29) Content Of The Week
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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1:10:16
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1:10:16
The Fed's Hawkish Cut & The Financial Hunger Games | Weekly Roundup
This week, we discuss the Fed meeting, including the end of quantitative tightening and the impact of its balance sheet plans. We also dig into how market structure imbalances and political polarization are reshaping markets, the “financial Hunger Games” of meme-driven trading, rising CapEx from AI megacaps, and the centralization of wealth and power across institutions. Enjoy!
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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
__
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1E5w8fmngVNuC4lyl-PCV5qAPewW_lyKm/view?usp=sharing
—
Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.
https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:05) Private-Public Market Divergence
(05:08) Fed Meeting Takeaways
(11:17) Grayscale Ad
(11:56) Market Structure Rabbit Hole
(17:26) The Bifurcating Economy
(23:01) Fed Balance Sheet Changes
(27:40) Impact on Markets
(31:27) Grayscale Ad
(32:15) High-Yield Earnings & Market Concentration
(37:51) BigTech Capex Transition
(42:19) The Dystopian AI Future
(45:53) Why is Bitcoin Dumping?
(48:37) The Market is a Casino
(51:28) Realigning Market Incentives
(55:06) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
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