Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

Rising bond yields have moved centre stage as turmoil in the Middle East pushes up energy prices and rattles global markets. In this episode, Gaurav, Andrew, Kamil, Denise and Stefan dig into what’s driving the recent jump in government bond yields, and how much reflects inflation fears versus fiscal and political concerns. From U.K. budget worries to Asia’s vulnerability to external shocks, the team assesses who is most exposed, whether markets are overreacting, how central banks are likely to respond, and why this episode still looks less dangerous than past inflation scares. 

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Gaurav is joined by Stefan, Andrew, Suren and Kamil to take stock of a global economy that is still holding up—just—three months into the Middle East conflict. Oil prices remain range‑bound for now, but the team warns that policy buffers are thinning and risks are becoming increasingly non‑linear. Asia is still benefiting from the AI boom, Europe’s economy looks more fragile as sentiment sours, while the Middle East itself faces mounting economic damage the longer the Strait of Hormuz stays constrained. With talk of messy reopenings, tipping points and mounting stagflation risks, the outlook is becoming steadily more uneasy.

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To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Gaurav, Denise, Stefan and Andrew unpack the fallout from President Donald Trump’s closely watched meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing. With plenty of warm words but few concrete breakthroughs, the discussion turns to what this means for U.S.‑China trade, tariffs and the longer‑term reality of technological decoupling between the world’s superpowers. The team also explores the implications for Europe, the continued risks from the Iran conflict and disruption in global energy markets, and whether Asia’s AI‑fuelled growth boom can really offset rising oil prices and mounting geopolitical strain.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Gaurav is joined by Andrew and David for a long-overdue deep dive into the U.K, where the Middle East conflict has darkened the growth and inflation picture just as the economy seemed to be stabilising. The team debate whether the economy’s surprisingly good start to the year reflects genuine strength or lingering seasonal quirks in the data, and why the surveys now point to a sharp slowdown. They also explore the implications for the labour market, housing, and the public finances, before asking what all this means for the Bank of England—as bond markets brace for higher policy rates while keeping a nervous eye on this week’s local government elections.

 

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Gala Riani, Head of Strategic Intelligence at SRM joins Gaurav, Suren and Barbara for an in‑depth conversation that explores the continued crisis in the Middle East. The discussion explores how the conflict has shifted from a military confrontation to an economic campaign, with a focus on U.S. strategy, Iran’s internal political dynamics, and the growing role of economic pressure and blockades. Riani offers sharp insights into Tehran’s decision-making, divisions within the regime, the influence of external actors such as China and Russia, and the prospects for negotiations. The episode also examines the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets, and regional stability, weighing scenarios ranging from de‑escalation to renewed conflict. Gala tells the GEU that we are at greatest risk from what we fail to imagine.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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