Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

• German Lessons

  Gaurav and the team are joined by Ben Acton-Bond for a special episode on Germany. Ben explains how the German economy is likely to fare in the face of higher U.S. tariffs, amid mixed signals from the recent data. The team debates whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s plans to ramp up spending on infrastructure and defense will lift Germany out of its years-long slump or if a recession is still a significant risk, while Gaurav takes the opportunity to show off his extensive German vocabulary. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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  1:01:11

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• Negotiating Around Tariffs: The Expanding Relationship Between Europe and Southeast Asia

  Steve, Katrina and Gaurav welcome Karl Godderis, the CEO of EUROCHAM in Malaysia for an in-depth conversation about the expanding trade relationship between the EU and Southeast Asia. While tariffs are not an issue, both sides must face the EU’s regulatory environment. Katrina and Gaurav also say goodbye and thanks to Steve on the eve of his retirement.  Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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• That Sinking Feeling

  Gaurav, Kamil, and Barbara return for a timely discussion on the rising risks of recession in Europe. They begin by unpacking four major threats currently weighing on the region’s outlook. Gaurav opens with an analysis of the Israel-Iran conflict and its potential economic spillovers, including developments in oil markets. Kamil follows with a look at the implications of an escalating trade war, while Barbara explores the growing challenge of global fragmentation. The trio also touches on the broader theme of global financial instability and its role in shaping downside risks.In the final segment, the conversation turns to how they assess the probability of a European recession. While their views differ slightly, all agree that the outlook has grown increasingly fragile, with recession risks at even odds at best.  Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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  1:07:13

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• Leverage, Leverage, Leverage

  Fresh off the heels of a U.S.-China trade truce reached in London, Ambassador Kurt Tong , Managing Partner at The Asia Group joins the Asia podcast crew. The team discusses the implications of the chaotic U.S. policy and how China and the broader region are readjusting to the dramatic shifts. Steve and Kurt sneak in some baseball references. Go Phillies!Guest: Kurt Tong, Managing Partner at The Asia GroupRead more from Kurt Tong here Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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  1:06:48

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• Stockpiling, Sales and Storms

  With new euro zone data releases, and an ECB decision to boot, there is plenty to talk about. Gaurav and team roll up their sleeves and do what they do best: analyze the numbers.  Gaurav and Kamil kick off with a deep dive into our economic forecasts for Europe, unpacking the key assumptions and highlighting the downgrades made since Donald Trump’s election as U.S. President. They examine the role of tariffs, uncertainty, and other contributing factors, while also acknowledging the huge variations across European countries. The team then turns to the latest data and explores how significantly momentum has been boosted by stockpiling ahead of U.S. tariffs. Finally, the group reacts to the latest euro zone inflation data and the ECB’s recent rate decision. Has the central bank reached the end of its easing cycle—or is there more to come? Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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