Valuetainment

Kalshi had Flávio Bolsonaro at roughly 85% to win Brazil's presidential election. Then Lula won the runoff. Was the prediction market wrong? Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour explains what really happened, and what it means for the 2026 midterms.Mansour breaks down the biggest misunderstanding about prediction markets: a 25% chance isn't zero. It means that outcome should happen one in four times. He explains how markets absorb new information in real time, why accuracy can only be judged across thousands of markets (not one), and why Kalshi's odds are a probability, not a poll.

Mansour shares his message to young people who feel shut out of the system: stop sitting on the sidelines. With AI, it's never been easier to build something. His advice is to follow the thing you're "childishly excited" about, the topic your friends roll their eyes at because you can't stop talking about it.

Gavin Newsom was caught on camera telling an undercover journalist that the Democratic Socialists of America will be the dominant force in the Democratic Party. While campaigning in New Hampshire for Democratic candidate Stefany Shaheen, Newsom was approached by someone posing as a young voter who said younger Democrats want more democratic socialist policies, not "more Kamala Harris."

How does Kalshi make money, and is it gambling? Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour explains why Kalshi works like a stock exchange, not a casino.A sportsbook makes money when you lose, so it has every reason to push out winning bettors. Kalshi takes a small fee on every trade, win or lose, which means it wants the smartest traders. Just like the New York Stock Exchange, those traders make the prices more accurate.------

For the first time since the Korean War, the U.S. Army is training for mass temporary burials on the battlefield. At Fort Bragg, North Carolina, engineers, chaplains, and fatality management teams practiced digging temporary graves, a wartime procedure for when fallen soldiers can't be safely brought home right away. So why is the Army preparing for this now?