Beyond Oil: The Rise of Critical Metals

🎙️ Episode Description
In this episode, Travis McLing discusses the growing importance of critical and strategic minerals to the U.S. economy, energy transition, and national security. Drawing on more than three decades of experience at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Travis explains how global supply chains for minerals such as rare earth elements, copper, lithium, and cobalt have become increasingly concentrated, particularly in China. He explores the historical factors that led to U.S. dependence on foreign mineral supplies, the economic and ethical implications of offshoring extraction and processing, and the challenges of rebuilding domestic capacity. The conversation also examines the role of national laboratories in advancing mineral recovery technologies, valorizing mine waste, supporting pilot-scale testing, and developing solutions that balance economic viability with environmental responsibility.
👤 Guest
Travis McLing, Chief Geologist and Directorate Fellow, Idaho National Laboratory
⏱️ Episode Timeline
• Welcome, introductions, and overview of the session (00:00:00–00:01:03)• Travis’s background and career path into mineral extraction and remediation work (00:01:04–00:03:26)• Early signals of global supply chain vulnerability and China’s rare earth embargo of Japan (00:03:27–00:04:34)• Ethical and social implications of global mineral sourcing and consumer responsibility (00:04:35–00:06:38)• Historical decline of U.S. mining capacity and closure of the U.S. Bureau of Mines (00:06:39–00:08:54)• China’s long-term strategy to dominate mineral extraction, processing, and refining (00:08:55–00:11:14)• Current U.S. dependence on foreign sources for critical minerals and defense materials (00:11:15–00:12:56)• Investment gaps, lack of innovation, and challenges facing Western mining companies (00:12:57–00:15:30)• Defining critical versus strategic minerals and how priorities differ across agencies (00:15:31–00:18:44)• Why critical minerals are essential but not necessarily high-value commodities (00:18:45–00:21:06)• Approaches to strengthening supply chains: diversification, substitution, recycling, and friend-shoring (00:21:07–00:23:33)• Limitations of recycling and the need for integrated domestic processing and manufacturing (00:23:34–00:25:44)• Recovering metals from mine tailings and waste streams as near-term opportunities (00:25:45–00:28:54)• Rare earth elements: misconceptions, market challenges, and separation economics (00:28:55–00:32:36)• INL’s role as a national hub for critical minerals research and pilot-scale testing (00:32:37–00:39:31)• Federal investments, lab consortia, and collaboration with academia and industry (00:39:32–00:44:38)• Recommended readings and closing remarks before Q&A (00:44:39–00:47:23)• Audience Q&A on waste stream commercialization, policy barriers, and U.S. smelting capacity (00:47:24–00:52:01)
🔑 Key Takeaways
• The United States is highly dependent on foreign nations—particularly China—for most critical and strategic minerals.• Critical minerals are essential to modern technology and defense systems, even though they often have low market prices.• Ethical, environmental, and economic trade-offs are embedded in global mineral supply chains and must be acknowledged.• Recovering metals from mine tailings and waste streams offers a faster, lower-impact pathway than opening new mines.• Rebuilding domestic mining capacity requires connecting extraction, processing, refining, and manufacturing within the U.S.• National laboratories play a unique role in de-risking technologies, supporting pilot-scale testing, and enabling innovation.• Long-term policy alignment and economic incentives are necessary to secure resilient and responsible mineral supply chains.


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🎙️ Episode Description
In this episode, Jason Gillham, CTO/COO and Co-Founder of Impossible Metals, walks through Version 7 of the company’s Techno Economic Model (TEM), explaining how it simulates autonomous polymetallic nodule collection from seafloor to shore. Jason describes how engineering design choices, site conditions, and market inputs flow through the model to determine cost per wet ton, highlights key updates from Version 6 to Version 7—including selective collection (“top grading”) and updated nodule size distributions—and previews what’s coming in Version 8, such as improved sensitivity analysis and cross-site performance modeling.
⏱️ Episode Timeline
* Introduction by Holly and handoff to Jason (00:00:00–00:00:21)
* Jason sets the agenda: TEM Version 7 updates and preview of Version 8 (00:00:21–00:01:00)
* Concept of operations overview: the Eureka Collection System animation and full cycle (00:01:00–00:03:02)
* What the Techno Economic Model simulates: design and operational decisions translated into cost and throughput to shore (00:03:02–00:03:43)
* Example trade-off: dynamic buoyancy engine optimization and interdependent cost impacts (00:03:43–00:05:06)
* “All models are wrong, but some are useful” — using simulations to guide decisions and confidence (00:05:06–00:05:43)
* How the spreadsheet is organized: tabs, information flow, and decision outputs (00:05:43–00:06:20)
* Parameters explained: site, technology, and market inputs (00:06:20–00:08:13)
* Core model blocks: AUV economic model, maintenance model, fleet economics, and financial summary (00:08:13–00:10:20)
* Optimization routine: buoyancy engine sizing and horizontal speed to minimize cost per ton to shore (00:10:20–00:11:44)
* Key Version 7 change: selective collection and “top grading” sensitivity (00:11:44–00:12:25)
* Version 7 updates: alignment with NORAD pre-feasibility inputs, WACC assumptions, and vehicle design refinements (00:12:25–00:16:44)
* Top grading explained and the data behind nodule size distributions (00:16:44–00:21:59)
* Results: cost impacts of selective collection for Eureka III and Eureka IV, including target operating points (00:21:59–00:25:39)
* Looking ahead: Version 8 cross-site performance, improved sensitivity analysis, and labor refinement (00:25:39–00:27:45)
* Final takeaways and closing remarks (00:27:45–00:29:11)
* Q&A highlights: bulk chemistry considerations for nodule size and grade (00:29:34–00:31:09); processing costs handled in project P&L modeling (00:30:36–00:32:11); collector capacity and modeled cycle times for Eureka III and Eureka IV (00:32:45–00:34:27)
🔑 Key Takeaways
* The techno-economic model is a physics- and cost-based simulation of Impossible Metals’ full concept of operations.
* Version 7 focuses on cost per wet ton to shore, incorporating both CAPEX and OPEX using an 8% weighted average cost of capital.
* Selective collection enables strong economics even when collecting a small fraction of nodules, supporting a precautionary operational approach.
* Updated nodule size distribution data shows that a small percentage of nodules can represent a large share of total mass.
* Top-grading strategies can significantly reduce costs, but are not required to achieve viable economics.
* Version 8 will introduce cross-site modeling, deeper sensitivity analysis, probability-based outcomes, and refined labor assumptions, improving confidence in economic results.


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Moderator: Eric Young, Host of the Elements of Deep Sea Mining Podcast
For: Oliver Gunasekara, CEO & Co-Founder, Impossible Metals
Against: Victor Vescovo, Founder and CEO of Caladan Capital
🎙️ Episode Overview
In this debate, Oliver Gunasekara and Victor Vescovo examine whether deep sea mining is necessary to meet rising global demand for critical minerals. Moderated by Eric Young, this discussion explores the environmental, economic, geopolitical, and technological dimensions of seabed resource collection.
📝 Episode Discussion
As the world accelerates toward electrification and clean technologies, demand for nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper is surging. Can seabed minerals contribute meaningfully — and responsibly — to global supply?
The speakers debate:
* Whether deep sea mining provides minerals essential to the energy transition
* Environmental risks, uncertainties, and the role of selective collection
* Technology readiness, robotics, and operational challenges at depth
* The economics of seabed mining compared to terrestrial sources
* Global competition, particularly China’s supply chain dominance
* Regulatory frameworks, observers, and environmental impact assessments
* How little or how much seabed disturbance is acceptable
* Whether the industry is inevitable — and who should lead it
⏱️ Episode Timeline
* Environmental impact concerns and biome uncertainty (00:16:03–00:16:48)Oliver responds with data on seafloor science and the 6% selective-removal model (00:17:00–00:17:36)Debate over whether 6% collection speed is realistic (00:18:05–00:18:14)
* How essential are these minerals? Market size, value distribution, and copper/cobalt/manganese demand (00:20:48–00:22:43)Oliver’s response on copper demand and future price pressures (00:22:47–00:23:07)
* Technology readiness, risk stacking, and startup innovation under uncertainty (00:47:14–00:48:22)Victor’s argument on risk multiplicativity in complex systems (00:48:03–00:49:17)
* Operational challenges: sea state, lift systems, DP avoidance, subsea engineering heritage (00:43:48–00:45:29)Victor counters on deployment difficulty, untested depths, and complexity (00:45:36–00:45:58)
* Power requirements for recharging AUV fleets (00:46:03–00:46:36)Oliver explains ship-based power generation and upcoming 6 km rating (00:46:42–00:47:03)
* Environmental impact assessments, regulation, and precision collection (00:53:52–00:54:44)Victor’s call for independent technical and financial observers (00:55:35–00:55:56)
* Selective collection economics: arm count, speed tradeoffs, and vehicle optimization (00:56:07–00:57:46)
* Geopolitics: China’s supply chain dominance, strategic risks, and why nations are investing (01:03:41–01:05:14)
* Closing arguments: technological feasibility, economics, and long-term relevance of DSM (01:29:11–01:30:34)Moderator’s closing thanks and wrap-up (01:30:36–01:30:46)
🔑 Key Takeaways
* The debate centers on whether seabed minerals are necessary or marginal in the global metals landscape.
* Environmental uncertainty remains a major point of disagreement, especially regarding disturbance, sediment, and biome effects.
* Selective, low-impact collection is presented as a pathway to dramatically reduce disturbance — while critics question its feasibility at scale.
* The economic viability of seabed mining depends heavily on technology readiness, collection speed, and capital costs.
* Geopolitical pressures, particularly China’s dominance in metal processing, influence interest in alternative mineral sources.
* Regulation, transparency, and independent oversight are viewed as essential regardless of method.
* Both sides agree that strong environmental laws and rigorous monitoring are required before any commercial activity proceeds.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit impossiblemetals.substack.com

🎙️ Episode Description
In this episode, Oliver Gunasekara speaks with Bob Galyen, one of the foremost experts in battery technology and electrification, to unpack the challenges and opportunities shaping the global energy transition.
Bob discusses the evolution of modern batteries, the materials that power electric vehicles, and how innovations in manufacturing and automation are reshaping the supply chain. He explains why China leads battery production, what the U.S. must do to compete, and how deep-sea mineral harvesting offers a more sustainable alternative to terrestrial mining.
They also explore the critical role of AI in manufacturing, the importance of circular economy models, and the essential nature of education and workforce training in securing a long-term, sustainable future for the industry.
👤 Guest
Bob Galyen, Chairman of The Battery Show North America and veteran battery expert
🎧 Host
Oliver Gunasekara, CEO of Impossible Metals
⏱️ Episode Timeline
* The evolution of modern battery technology (00:00:00–00:01:54)
* Bob Galyen’s journey into the battery industry (00:01:54–00:03:15)
* Honoring Dr. John Goodenough’s scientific legacy (00:03:15–00:04:26)
* Core components of battery architecture (00:04:26–00:06:04)
* Manufacturing technology gaps between the U.S. and China (00:06:04–00:08:51)
* Global battery demand and production outlook (00:08:51–00:10:55)
* China’s rise as the dominant battery producer (00:10:55–00:13:09)
* The impact of government support and private investment (00:13:09–00:15:24)
* Artificial intelligence in battery production and automation (00:15:24–00:17:06)
* Understanding mineral supply chain dependencies (00:17:06–00:19:55)
* Comparing terrestrial mining and deep-sea harvesting (00:19:55–00:22:41)
* The economic importance of polymetallic nodules (00:22:41–00:25:44)
* Global variations in nodule composition (00:25:44–00:27:33)
* Applications of metals from deep-sea resources (00:27:33–00:30:03)
* Reassessing mine tailings and resource recovery (00:42:52–00:45:15)
* Resource versus reserve — economic and environmental considerations (00:43:48–00:45:37)
* Education and workforce development for a sustainable battery future (00:45:43–00:46:23)
🔑 Key Takeaways
* Battery fundamentals still drive innovation. The chemistry and structure of anodes, cathodes, separators, and electrolytes define performance and cost.
* China’s battery dominance is policy-driven. Long-term investment, state coordination, and massive manufacturing scale have set a high bar for the rest of the world.
* AI is reshaping production. Automation and machine learning are improving efficiency, yield, and safety across the battery value chain.
* Deep-sea nodules offer sustainable sourcing. Their high metal content and low waste potential make them a cleaner alternative to traditional mining.
* Circular economy principles are essential. Recycling and re-use will be critical to meeting future global battery demand.
* Education is the foundation. Building a skilled workforce through STEM education and technical training will determine long-term competitiveness.
* Sustainability and economics must align. The future of batteries depends on balancing cost, efficiency, and environmental responsibility.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit impossiblemetals.substack.com

🎙️ Episode Description
In this episode, we dive into the intersection of artificial intelligence and deep-sea mineral exploration. João Carvalho, CEO of DeepFocus, shares how his team is leveraging AI-driven data processing and geological analysis to support responsible exploration of critical minerals. From demand pressures to environmental challenges, João highlights innovative methods, real-world examples, and the role startups like DeepFocus play in reshaping the future of resource discovery.
👤 Guest
João Carvalho – CEO of DeepFocus, a Portuguese startup focused on AI-powered solutions for responsible deep-sea mineral exploration.
🎧 Host
Oliver Gunasekara – CEO of Impossible Metals.
⏱️ Episode Timeline
* Introduction by Oliver and handoff to João (00:00:00–00:00:17)
* João introduces DeepFocus and its mission (00:00:17–00:01:16)
* Services offered: consulting, target generation, asset analysis, and habitat mapping (00:01:16–00:01:44)
* The growing demand for critical minerals (00:01:44–00:02:49)
* Challenges in deep-sea mineral exploration (00:02:49–00:03:54)
* How AI supports resource definition and exploration (00:03:54–00:04:58)
* Examples of AI applications in exploration workflows (00:04:58–00:06:15)
* The importance of responsible practices and sustainability (00:06:15–00:08:15)
* Future outlook for AI in deep-sea exploration (00:08:15–00:10:00)
* Q&A highlights: impact of AI on exploration accuracy (00:10:00–00:11:45); balancing innovation with environmental responsibility (00:11:45–00:13:30)
🔑 Key Takeaways
* AI is accelerating deep-sea mineral exploration. By processing vast datasets, AI identifies patterns that humans may overlook.
* DeepFocus was founded in 2023 to make exploration more responsible. The startup leverages AI for geological intelligence and habitat mapping.
* Critical mineral demand is rising sharply. Renewable energy and high-tech industries are fueling this growth.
* Exploration challenges remain significant. Harsh environments and incomplete data pose hurdles.
* AI improves resource definition accuracy. Machine learning can generate new exploration targets and refine existing data.
* Environmental responsibility is central. Both companies and regulators must prioritize sustainable exploration.
* AI-driven workflows streamline decision-making. From data review to habitat mapping, processes become faster and more efficient.
* Collaboration is key to progress. Startups, governments, and established companies all play a role.
* Sustainability builds trust with stakeholders. Responsible practices help secure social license to operate.
* The future of deep-sea exploration is AI-enabled. Innovation will shape how resources are discovered and used.
🔗 Links & Resources Mentioned
* Impossible Metals
* DeepFocus


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit impossiblemetals.substack.com