Beyond Oil: The Rise of Critical Metals

• The Implications of China’s Deep Sea Mining Strategy on US Defense Presence in Oceania

  Episode DescriptionToday on the podcast, we welcome Lucia Fogler, a University of Virginia student researcher in public policy and global security. Lucia shares her research on how China is positioning itself as a leader in deep-sea mining—and what that means for U.S. national security.From mapping China’s ISA contract areas and tracking research vessel movements, Lucia highlights key trends in the Pacific that put pressure on the U.S. defense industrial base. She explains how seabed minerals could shift global supply chains, why Oceania is a critical theater for geopolitical competition, and what steps the U.S. might take to protect its strategic presence.If you’re interested in the intersection of critical minerals, defense, and geopolitics, this episode is a must-listen.GuestLucia Fogler, University of Virginia student researcher in public policy and global securityHostHolly NielsenEpisode DescriptionToday on the podcast, we welcome Lucia Fogler, a University of Virginia student researcher in public policy and global security. Lucia shares her research on how China is positioning itself as a leader in deep-sea mining—and what that means for U.S. national security.From mapping China’s ISA contract areas and tracking research vessel movements, Lucia highlights key trends in the Pacific that put pressure on the U.S. defense industrial base. She explains how seabed minerals could shift global supply chains, why Oceania is a critical theater for geopolitical competition, and what steps the U.S. might take to protect its strategic presence.If you’re interested in the intersection of critical minerals, defense, and geopolitics, this episode is a must-listen.Episode Timeline* Welcome, format, and handoff to Lucia (00:00:00)* Lucia’s background and research focus (00:00:29)* Agenda: background → positions on deep sea mining (DSM) → policy implications → recommendations (00:01:16)* Why DSM matters to U.S. defense: (1) critical minerals in DIB; (2) maintaining influence in Oceania (00:02:09)* DOD/NATO critical-minerals lists; China’s prominence across mining/refining/processing; all 16 found in the ocean (00:02:59–00:04:53)* Pacific context: island-chain theory; U.S. territories, EEZs, bases, and COFA agreements (00:05:11–00:09:03)* China’s Oceania footprint: security agreements (Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Vanuatu) and deep-sea collaborations (Cook Islands, Tonga, PNG) (00:09:10–00:11:12)* ISA contracts & dual-use concerns (Beijing Pioneer, COMRA, China MinMetals) (00:11:37–00:12:11)* U.S. vs. China posture on DSM; U.S. not an UNCLOS/ISA party; EO 14285 opens paths beyond national jurisdiction (00:12:22–00:14:24)* Method: open-source overlays of ISA polygons, U.S. sites, and vessel tracks (00:15:17–00:17:09)* Policy implications (3): countering U.S. influence; dual-use/civil-military fusion; market lock-out risk (00:17:51–00:18:58)* Case study—American Samoa & nearby PRC alignments (Tonga, Cook Islands) (00:19:34–00:20:22)* Proximity callout—Hawai‘i to CMC A5 ~600 miles; ISA sites near U.S. EEZ (00:21:03–00:21:23)* Undersea cables run through/near ISA areas; Xiangyang Hong 6 survey routes raise espionage/sabotage concerns (00:22:26–00:24:27)* What’s new: U.S. exploring EEZ permits; U.S.–Cook Islands MOU; renewed U.S. corporate interest (00:26:22–00:27:57)* Q&A highlights: provocation vs. economics (00:29:07–00:31:31); terminology (“mining” vs “harvesting”) (00:43:52–00:45:51); DSHMRA (1980) relevance (00:46:10–00:47:55); cultural/environmental concerns (00:52:10–00:55:59)Key Takeaways* Defense depends on seabed minerals: Critical minerals underpin U.S. defense tech; all 16 highlighted appear in ocean contexts (varying quantities).* China’s leverage spans sea and shore: Dominance across terrestrial supply chains is extending seaward via ISA contracts and Oceania partnerships.* Geography = strategy: PRC contract areas and partnerships frequently sit near U.S. assets or allies, challenging influence across the second/third island chains.* Dual-use risk is real: Research vessels and seabed work can coexist with ISR risks—especially where fiber-optic cables intersect ISA blocks.* U.S. legal posture is mixed: Non-participation in UNCLOS/ISA limits levers even as EO 14285 and legacy statutes (DSHMRA, 1980) create paths to act.* Race for processing & market share: If China leads DSM and processing, it could lock the U.S. out of critical-mineral markets vital to the Defense Industrial Base.* Momentum is shifting now: Fresh diplomacy (e.g., U.S.–Cook Islands) and renewed corporate interest suggest fast-moving competitive dynamics.Resources & Links* Lucia Fogler’s paper online * International Seabed Authority (ISA)* U.S. Geological Survey: Critical Minerals Review* Impossible Metals website This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit impossiblemetals.substack.com

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• Unlocking Deep Sea Minerals with Flexible Refining Solutions

  Episode Description:In this episode, Impossible Metals hosts a forward-looking conversation with Shane Tragathon, Head of Business Development and Partnerships at ReElement Technologies. Shane explains how ReElement’s breakthrough refining technology provides a modular, scalable, and environmentally friendly alternative to China’s solvent extraction dominance. He unpacks how chromatographic separation enables ultra-high purity outputs across rare earths, battery metals, and defense-critical elements — and how these systems can process ores, brines, recycled materials, and even seabed nodules.Guest:Shane Tragathon – Head of Business Development & Partnerships, ReElement TechnologiesHost:Oliver Gunasekara – CEO & Co-Founder, Impossible MetalsEpisode Timeline:* Why refining is the real bottleneck in critical mineral supply chains (0:00 – 3:30)* How ReElement’s chromatography-based technology works (3:30 – 7:15)* Achieving 99.999% purity without toxic solvents or legacy inefficiencies (7:15 – 12:00)* Flexible inputs: from recycled EV batteries to polymetallic nodules (12:00 – 16:40)* Advantages of modular, deployable refining near ports and mining sites (16:40 – 21:10)* The role of ReElement in U.S. national security and industrial resilience (21:10 – 25:30)* Global partnerships in Africa, Europe, and with Impossible Metals (25:30 – 30:00)* The future of distributed refining and its role in decarbonization (30:00 – 34:20)Key Takeaways:* Refining, not mining, is the chokepoint. China’s grip on mineral processing is the strategic bottleneck in supply chains, and ReElement’s approach directly addresses that weakness.* Chromatography unlocks higher purity with lower impact. The system eliminates toxic solvents, recycles water, and slashes environmental risks while achieving up to 99.999% purity.* Flexibility is a strategic advantage. Being able to process multiple feedstocks — from ores to brines to recycled batteries and nodules — makes the system resilient and future-proof.* Modular refining strengthens supply chains. Deploying compact systems close to ports, mines, or recycling hubs reduces logistics costs, increases speed, and limits choke points.* This is about security as much as sustainability. U.S. defense, aviation, energy, and tech sectors all rely on stable supplies of rare earths and battery metals — and distributed refining is key to resilience.* Partnerships are accelerating deployment. From African battery hubs to European recycling and Impossible Metals’ seabed projects, ReElement is positioning globally.Links & Resources Mentioned:* ReElement Technologies* Impossible Metals This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit impossiblemetals.substack.com

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• The Geopolitical Impact of Critical Minerals

  Episode Description:In this episode, Impossible Metals hosts a timely and candid conversation with Frank Fannon, one of the most prominent voices on energy geopolitics and critical mineral strategy. Drawing on his July 2025 Congressional testimony, Frank unpacks how China’s dominance in mineral refining poses a national security risk, why the U.S. needs to reframe its mineral strategy around power—not just policy—and how seabed resources could offer a game-changing solution.Guest: Frank Fannon – Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources; CEO of Fannon Global AdvisorsHost: Oliver Gunasekara, Impossible Metals CEO and Co-FounderEpisode Timeline:* China’s mineral dominance as non-kinetic warfare (0:00 – 3:20)* Why the U.S. must treat critical minerals as a security—not just economic—issue (3:20 – 6:45)* Outlining strategic tools: tariffs, offtake agreements, and financial instruments (6:45 – 10:55)* Building public-private alliances and performance-based international partnerships (10:55 – 15:40)* Permitting reform and why red states are leading domestic gigafactory development (15:40 – 19:10)* How U.S. institutional financing (DFC, EXIM, DOE) must evolve (19:10 – 23:00)* The case for seabed minerals and what’s changing in U.S. executive action (23:00 – 26:40)* Global perspective: Germany, Russia, and learning from past energy dependencies (26:40 – 30:25)* How the U.S. and allies can build a diversified, stable, and ethical supply chain (30:25 – 34:45)* U.S. legal standing on UNCLOS and what needs to happen in international waters (34:45 – 37:50)* Audience Q&A: demand reduction, recycling myths, deep sea mining and China's role (37:50 – 47:10)Key Takeaways:* China’s dominance in critical mineral processing is a strategic lever, not an accident. Frank emphasizes that Beijing’s actions are deliberate tools of economic statecraft designed to reduce Western leverage without firing a shot.* The U.S. must shift from awareness to action. Awareness campaigns and convenings are not enough—only tangible investment, stockpiling, and structural reform will close the gap.* Permitting reform is a linchpin for competitiveness. Delays of 10+ years undermine U.S. viability. States that offer fast, low-cost energy and transparent permitting—often red states—are now winning investment.* Public financing tools need flexibility and teeth. Agencies like EXIM and DFC should not just fund “safe” projects—they must de-risk bold, strategic ventures through offtake agreements and first-mover backing.* Seabed mining is no longer theoretical. Executive actions now open both domestic and international waters to exploration. The U.S. cannot afford to cede leadership here to China or remain stalled by treaty inaction.* Recycling and ‘thrifting’ are helpful, but not enough. Mineral demand is simply migrating to new sectors like AI and cloud infrastructure; substitution is not a silver bullet.* Deep sea mining may not benefit China as much as expected. While China dominates processing, it currently holds a minimal share of seabed extraction—offering a rare strategic opening for the U.S. and allies.* Global alliances must be performance-based. The U.S. should prioritize countries that deploy capital and build facilities—not just sign diplomatic MOUs.* We need to reduce reliance on single-source supply chains. Just as Germany learned with Russian gas, Western economies cannot afford to depend on China for minerals without serious consequences.* The U.S. must act regardless of UNCLOS ratification. While not a party to the treaty, America still benefits from seabed access and should assert its rights proactively.* Domestic projects must be financially sound from the start. The U.S. should not subsidize marginal plays but invest in globally competitive ventures with scalable economics.* Investors must consider long-term national security risks. Chasing short-term margins without factoring in geopolitics will backfire. Sustainable sourcing is a competitive advantage, not a cost.Links & Resources Mentioned:* Frank Fannon’s Congressional Testimony (July 2025) link* Frank Fannon’s statement* Impossible Metals website This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit impossiblemetals.substack.com

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• Ask Me Anything (AMA) with Oliver Gunasekara and 2024 Annual Report Review

  Welcome to the latest episode of Beyond Oil: The Rise of Critical Metals. In this episode, Holly Nielsen from Impossible Metals Marketing presents the company’s newly released Annual Report and shares key insights. The conversation then shifts to a live Q&A with CEO and Co-Founder Oliver Gunasekara, exploring in detail topics such as environmental impact, stakeholder engagement, and economic modeling for deep-sea mining.Host:* Oliver Gunasekara, CEO & Co-Founder of Impossible Metals🕒 Episode Timeline* Intro & Agenda Overview (00:00–00:00:18)* Annual Report Highlights & Vision (00:00:18–00:01:20)* Core Values & Responsible Metals (00:01:20–00:02:43)* Year in Review: 2024 Company Milestones (00:02:43–00:06:31)* ESG Focus: Environmental Impact (00:06:31–00:10:27)* Minimizing Sediment Disruption (00:10:27–00:12:53)* Technology & Biodiversity Protections (00:12:53–00:14:27)* Social Responsibility & Stakeholder Engagement (00:14:27–00:17:20)* Governance & Transparency Practices (00:17:20–00:18:48)* Technology Roadmap: Eureka I to III (00:18:48–00:20:27)* Live Q&A: (00:20:27–00:59:32)* Environmental Impacts & Plume Modeling (00:20:27–00:24:00)* Scalability & Economic Model Discussion (00:24:00–00:27:08)* Stakeholder Representation Strategy (00:27:08–00:30:14)* U.S. Policy & American Samoa Mining Context (00:30:14–00:36:01)* Carbon Neutral Commitment & Offsetting (00:36:01–00:44:00)* Market Dynamics & Geopolitics in Critical Metals (00:44:00–00:57:06)* Programmable Robotics & Responsible Harvesting (00:57:06–00:59:32)* Closing & Wrap-Up (00:59:32–End)✅ Key Takeaways* Mission-Driven Mining: Impossible Metals will harvest critical seabed metals sustainably using robotic technology that minimizes ecological disruption.* Environmental Leadership: The Eureka system avoids sediment plumes, uses hovering robots, and leaves 60% of nodules undisturbed to protect biodiversity.* Strong ESG Commitment: Their approach integrates transparency, stakeholder engagement, and rigorous governance.* Scalable and Cost-Efficient: The Eureka system is modular and designed for efficient scaling, with lower costs than traditional land-based mining.* Open to Scientific Oversight: Ongoing environmental baseline studies and programmable collection methods allow adaptive, cautious development.* Regulatory Navigation: The team discusses upcoming opportunities and challenges with U.S. offshore mineral licensing and global geopolitics.🔗 Links/Resources Mentioned* 2024 Annual Report (Impossible Metals)* Blog Post: How the Environmental Impact Assessment is a Keystone of Decision-Making in Deep-Sea Mining* Public Data Repository (Google Drive)* Economic Model & Cost Comparison This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit impossiblemetals.substack.com

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• Mining the Seabed: Potential Impacts on Critical Mineral Supply Chains and Global Geopolitics

  Episode Description:Welcome to another episode of Beyond Oil: The Rise of Critical Metals. Join us as Tom LaTourrette and Fabian Villalobos from RAND Corporation review their report on seabed mining, covering the drivers, study design focused on nodule extraction, and potential implications, especially concerning battery metal demand and China's supply chain dominance. They also discuss seabed mining's potential supply, barriers compared to terrestrial mining, impact on terrestrial mining income for some countries, geopolitical workshop findings, the US government's limited influence in the ISA, and implications of the recent US executive order, culminating in recommendations for the US government. Guests:* Tom LaTourrette, Senior Physical Scientist at RAND, with expertise in energy, infrastructure, and public safety.* Fabian Villalobos, Senior Researcher at the RAND Corporation, focused on US-China techno-economic competition, supply chains, the defense industrial base, and emerging technologies.Host:* Oliver Gunasekara, CEO & Co-Founder of Impossible MetalsEpisode Timeline:* Introduction to Seabed Mining (0:00 – 03:40)* Study Design (03:40 – 07:55)* Demand for Battery Metals and China's Dominance (07:55 – 10:31)* Seabed Mining's Potential Supply and Barriers (10:31 – 19:11)* Impact on Terrestrial Mining Income (19:11 – 21:47)* Geopolitical Implications Workshop (21:47 – 30:57)* US Government's Limited Influence in ISA (30:57 – 32:27)* Potential Implications of the Executive Order (32:27 – 36:26)* Recommendations for the US Government (36:26 – 42:18)* Q&A Session (42.18 - 1:08:06)Key Takeaways:* Introduction to RAND’s Seabed Mining Study: The RAND Corporation has been studying seabed mining and geopolitical implications, focusing on polymetallic nodule extraction and processing.* Growing Demand for Critical Minerals: There's a projected surge in demand for battery metals like nickel and cobalt by 2040, driven by the energy transition.* China's Dominance in Supply Chains: China currently holds a significant lead in the global supply chains for critical minerals, from mining to processing.* Seabed Mining as a Supply Diversifier: Seabed mining could offer an alternative supply source for critical minerals, potentially reducing reliance on terrestrial mining and diversifying supply chains.* Challenges and Uncertainties of Seabed Mining: The industry faces hurdles such as high infrastructure costs, regulatory complexities, public perception issues, and the need for new processing technologies for nodules.* Potential Negative Impact on Terrestrial Mining Economies: Case studies suggest seabed mining could reduce income for nations like the DRC (Democratic Republic of the Congo) due to declining cobalt prices outweighing potential ISA royalty payments.* Geopolitical Complexities and International Governance: The emergence of a seabed mining industry introduces potential geopolitical tensions, requiring careful diplomatic engagement and monitoring of international institutions like the International Seabed Authority (ISA).* US Government's Role and Recommendations: The US government, despite not being an ISA member, needs to strategically engage with allies, clarify policies, and invest in research and mapping to navigate the evolving landscape of seabed mining.Links/Resources MentionedRand research paper overviewImpossible Metals website This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit impossiblemetals.substack.com

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