Beyond Oil: The Rise of Critical Metals

🎙️ Episode Description
In this episode, Justin Manley — one of the foremost experts in underwater and marine technology — delivers a sweeping update on the state of uncrewed maritime systems (UMS). From small AUVs to extra-large underwater vessels, from Ukraine’s robot navy to billion-dollar defense contracts, Justin unpacks the technology landscape, the defense and commercial drivers accelerating adoption, and the emerging business dynamics reshaping this industry. He also explores how AI, environmental DNA, and declining hardware costs are opening new frontiers for ocean robotics — with direct implications for seabed mineral exploration and ocean monitoring.
👤 Guest
Justin Manley – Independent consultant, investor, and 30-year veteran of the marine technology industry. Career spans MIT (academic), NOAA (government contractor), startups, and corporate roles. Current focus: impact investing and philanthropy at the intersection of ocean technology and business.
🎧 Host
Oliver Gunasekara – CEO of Impossible Metals.
⏱️ Episode Timeline
* Oliver introduces Justin and the topic of marine robotics trends (00:00:00–00:01:12)
* Justin’s background: MIT, NOAA, startups, and impact investing (00:01:12–00:02:02)
* Overview of the presentation: tech, drivers, defense, commercial, research, and recent developments (00:02:02–00:03:41)
* The “alphabet soup” of uncrewed maritime systems: AUVs, USVs, ROVs, UUVs explained (00:03:41–00:04:18)
* Small AUVs: capabilities, payloads, market size, and key manufacturers (00:04:18–00:05:55)
* Medium AUVs: greater depth, higher precision, commercial survey and mine-hunting missions (00:05:55–00:07:01)
* Large AUVs: full ocean depth, multi-day endurance, seabed survey across all sectors (00:07:01–00:08:38)
* Extra-large AUVs: ship-deployed, weeks-long missions, global vendor landscape including Boeing and Kongsberg (00:08:38–00:10:05)
* Underwater gliders: buoyancy-driven, months-long endurance, oceanographic and acoustic missions (00:10:05–00:11:15)
* Hover-and-dock AUVs: inspection and intervention vehicles, seafloor-resident systems (00:11:15–00:13:07)
* ROVs: the workhorse of underwater industry — inspection, cable-laying, pipeline support (00:13:07–00:14:16)
* Uncrewed surface vessels (USVs): conventional and long-endurance categories (00:14:16–00:15:18)
* Ukraine conflict as a pivotal driver of USV innovation and adoption (00:15:18–00:17:50)
* U.S. Navy USV procurement: Saronic contract, new transaction authorities, and MUSV program (00:17:50–00:20:30)
* Australia’s 1.7B AUD Anduril large AUV contract and its influence on U.S. Navy strategy (00:20:30–00:21:52)
* UK Navy’s pivot to uncrewed assets to address crewed ship shortfalls; Germany’s arsenal ship concept (00:21:52–00:23:33)
* Commercial sector: Fugro USV-ROV operations, RoboSys automation retrofit, Ocean Infinity’s 14th vessel (00:23:33–00:26:08)
* Research highlights: NOAA hurricane data collection with small sailboats; AUV lost under ice replaced — a sign of maturing norms (00:26:08–00:27:53)
* AUVs enabling large-scale seafloor mapping for science and minerals (00:27:53–00:28:22)
* Emerging tech — AI/ML: multi-sensor data fusion and autonomous marine mammal and object detection (00:28:22–00:32:53)
* OnDeck AI: combining video models and large language models to query ocean video data (00:31:44–00:33:26)
* Environmental DNA (eDNA): onboard biochemical labs enabling autonomous biological monitoring (00:33:37–00:35:02)
* Business dynamics: Vatten Systems $60M Series A for attritable UUVs; Sail Drone’s defense pivot (00:35:05–00:36:50)
* Australia orders 40 long-endurance USVs (~$100M AUD); Saronic closes $1.75B funding at $9B valuation (00:36:50–00:38:48)
* Industry consolidation: Saipem/Sub C7 merger; Metal Shark + Havoc partnership; Helsing acquires subsea glider company; Kraken Robotics acquired by Covalia Group for $615M (00:38:48–00:41:35)
* Falling hardware costs: AUVs from $100K, ROVs from $10K — OpEx beginning to exceed CapEx (00:41:35–00:43:41)
* Conclusion: the three-legged stool of commercial, defense, and research — all thriving simultaneously (00:43:41–00:45:55)
* Q&A — China’s capabilities in this space (00:46:22–00:48:08)
* Q&A — Power and energy innovation for uncrewed systems (00:48:23–00:51:34)
* Q&A — Quantum sensing and its applications in marine autonomy (00:51:58–00:54:27)
* Q&A — Data transmission: how massive datasets get from robots back to shore (00:54:30–00:57:05)
🔑 Key Takeaways
* The Ukraine conflict fundamentally changed naval warfare. Ukrainian forces developed, deployed, and iterated on uncrewed surface vessels in combat within a single year — compressing what typically takes decades of procurement cycles into months.
* Defense spending is unlocking unprecedented investment. Australia’s 1.7B AUD Anduril contract and Saronic’s $1.75B funding round at a $9B valuation — for a three-year-old company — signal that defense is now a primary engine of this industry.
* Commercial operators are normalizing autonomy. Companies like Fugro routinely deploy USV-ROV combinations for offshore surveys that previously required full-crewed vessels, demonstrating proven economics.
* AI and LLMs are transforming how ocean data is interpreted. Startups like OnDeck AI use combined video and language models to query underwater footage conversationally — a capability with direct implications for seabed mineral detection and environmental monitoring.
* Environmental DNA is enabling autonomous biological sensing. Onboard biochemical labs on AUVs can now detect specific organisms in the water column, creating a new layer of environmental monitoring for responsible ocean operations.
* Hardware costs are approaching the threshold where OpEx exceeds CapEx. Entry-level AUVs now start around $100K and ROVs at $10K — making ocean robotics accessible to a far broader range of users and use cases.
* The industry’s “three-legged stool” is balanced for the first time. The commercial, defense, and research sectors are all active simultaneously — a historically rare alignment that is driving broad innovation.
* Consolidation is accelerating. Major M&A events — Kraken/Covalia at $615M, Saipem/Sub C7, Metal Shark/Havoc, Helsing’s glider acquisition — are reshaping the supply chain and compressing old-school hardware firms with new-school software companies.
* Data transmission remains a core bottleneck. Even with Starlink, bandwidth asymmetry means robots still process data at the edge and transmit analysis rather than raw data — a constraint shaping AI deployment strategies across the industry.
* Quantum sensing is emerging but is still in an early stage. While quantum-enabled LiDAR concepts are being explored, the most practical near-term quantum impact on this field is on the data processing and modeling side.
🔗 Links & Resources Mentioned
* Impossible Metals


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🎙️ Episode Description In this episode, Eric Macris, CEO of Viridian Biometals, joins Oliver Gunasekara to explore a radical approach to critical mineral processing — using bacteria that literally breathe rocks. The conversation covers the environmental toll of conventional mining and processing, the mounting pressure on the industry to find cleaner alternatives, and how Viridian’s bio-based technology could unlock both land-based mine waste and deep-sea nodules as viable sources of critical minerals. Eric walks through the science, the economics, and Viridian’s path to commercial scale, and takes questions from attendees.
👤 Guest Eric Macris – CEO of Viridian Biometals, which is developing microbial mineral processing technology.
🎧 Host Oliver Gunasekara – CEO & Co-Founder of Impossible Metals
⏱️ Episode Timeline
* Introduction and overview of Viridian Biometals (00:00:00–00:00:59)
* The 10,000-year history of metals and why innovation has been scarce (00:01:39–00:03:37)
* The environmental cost of conventional nickel and critical mineral processing (00:03:38–00:05:39)
* Why declining ore quality and growing demand are forcing a rethink (00:05:40–00:07:16)
* Mine waste and deep sea nodules as untapped sources of critical minerals (00:07:17–00:09:24)
* China’s dominance in processing and why the West can’t compete using conventional technology (00:09:25–00:10:44)
* Introducing Viridian’s approach: bacteria that breathe rocks (00:10:45–00:12:17)
* Economic comparison: Viridian vs. conventional processing (00:12:18–00:13:23)
* How a Viridian plant works vs. a conventional plant — inputs, outputs, and waste (00:13:24–00:15:35)
* The case for containerized, modular processing plants (00:15:36–00:17:02)
* Current customers, lab progress, and the scaling roadmap (00:17:03–00:20:05)
* The science of microbial metal extraction explained (00:20:06–00:22:40)
* Competitive landscape: why Viridian outperforms other alternative technologies (00:22:41–00:24:21)
* Transformational benefits: competing without tariffs or subsidies (00:24:22–00:26:09)
* Q&A: bacterial strain selection and the role of electricity in processing (00:29:43–00:32:56)
* Q&A: grinding requirements and why bacteria need less crushing than conventional methods (00:42:33–00:45:37)
* Q&A: maintaining anaerobic conditions in the bioreactor (00:48:28–00:50:09)
* Business model: path from pilot plant to project financing and commercial revenue (00:50:10–00:52:53)
🔑 Key Takeaways
* The metals industry is 10,000 years old and has seen very little processing innovation, yet civilization is entirely dependent on it — and demand for critical minerals is accelerating.
* Conventional processing, dominated by Chinese high-pressure acid leaching, is environmentally destructive and economically unviable to replicate in the West due to pollution and waste requirements.
* Viridian harnesses naturally occurring bacteria that “breathe” metal oxides in rocks, using a process that operates at ambient temperature, requires no acids, generates no toxic waste, and can use seawater or brackish water.
* The economics are compelling: Viridian’s model projects three times greater profitability than the lowest-cost conventional plants, with break-even in three years versus five.
* Because Viridian’s process is simpler and cleaner, its plants can be shrunk to fit in a 40-foot shipping container — something impossible with conventional technology — enabling deployment nearly anywhere in the world.
* Viridian currently works with five customers under NDA, has signed MOUs with three, and has achieved 85% metals recovery in under two days in the lab, with one-day extraction now demonstrated.
* The company maintains a library of approximately 35 bacterial strains and is pursuing a pending patent that would broadly cover the use of rock-breathing bacteria for metal extraction.
* Viridian’s technology could enable Western critical mineral processing to compete on its own merits, without dependence on government subsidies or tariffs that shift with political cycles.
* The three-year scaling roadmap runs from the current 20-liter lab system to a 10,000-liter pilot plant and then a commercially viable 60,000-liter containerized demonstration plant.
🔗 Links & Resources Mentioned
* Impossible Metals
* Viridian Biometals
* International Seabed Authority
* Bureau of Ocean Energy Management


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🎙️ Episode DescriptionIn this episode, we explore the often-overlooked dimension of cultural heritage in deep-sea mining. Matthew joins Oliver Gunasekara to examine how tangible and intangible cultural heritage intersect with seabed development. From shipwrecks and paleontological remains to Indigenous cosmologies and ancestral ties to the ocean, the conversation highlights regulatory frameworks, challenges in stakeholder engagement, and opportunities for responsible stewardship. The discussion underscores that the deep ocean archive of exploration, conflict, migration, belief, and memory requires thoughtful navigation.
👤 GuestMatthew Piscitelli – Project Manager & Marketing Manager at SEARCH, a U.S.-based cultural resource management firm specializing in heritage compliance and underwater archaeology.
🎧 HostOliver Gunasekara – CEO & Co-Founder of Impossible Metals
⏱️ Episode Timeline
* Introduction and overview of cultural heritage in deep-sea mining (00:00:00–00:01:23)
* Why cultural heritage is increasingly urgent in seabed development (00:01:23–00:03:06)
* Defining tangible vs. intangible cultural heritage (00:03:15–00:05:31)
* Examples of tangible heritage: shipwrecks, fossils, naval wreck protections (00:05:51–00:07:27)
* Shipwreck distribution data and exposure to deep-sea mining zones (00:07:42–00:10:10)
* Intangible heritage: Indigenous cosmologies, seascapes, and ancestral connections (00:10:20–00:12:18)
* Regulatory frameworks: UNCLOS, ISA, U.S. law, and cultural heritage provisions (00:12:52–00:15:05)
* Lessons from offshore wind and terrestrial industries on compliance and engagement (00:15:52–00:18:00)
* Best practices: baseline assessments, predictive modeling, and transparent communication (00:18:37–00:20:27)
* Stakeholder engagement challenges: geography, consultation timelines, and global commons debates (00:26:51–00:30:03; 00:37:29–00:39:33)
* Q&A highlights: AI and machine learning for archaeological detection (00:23:51–00:26:38); evaluating cultural harm and Indigenous consultation (00:30:11–00:44:10); technology claims and environmental verification (00:54:18–00:57:37)
🔑 Key Takeaways
* The deep ocean contains shipwrecks, paleontological remains, and places that hold cultural and spiritual meaning for many communities. It is described as an archive of exploration, conflict, migration, belief, and memory.
* Cultural heritage has two dimensions. Tangible heritage includes physical artifacts, while intangible heritage encompasses beliefs, practices, and identity.
* Shipwreck exposure to deep-sea mining appears limited but uncertain. Only a small percentage of known wrecks lie in potential mining depths, though data gaps remain.
* Regulatory frameworks are evolving. International and national regimes address tangible heritage more clearly than intangible cultural connections.
* Indigenous perspectives are central. Many Pacific and diaspora communities view the ocean as ancestral space, not empty territory.
* Stakeholder engagement is complex. Geographic distance, global commons debates, and regulatory authority shape who participates in decision-making.
* Baseline cultural assessments reduce operational and reputational risk. Early surveys and predictive modeling help avoid unintended impacts.
* Transparency builds trust. Clear communication, science outreach, and accessible storytelling improve public understanding.
* Capacity building matters. Supporting communities with resources and training strengthens meaningful participation.
* Responsible access requires cultural awareness. Development and heritage stewardship are not mutually exclusive—but require deliberate integration.
🔗 Links & Resources Mentioned
* Impossible Metals
* International Seabed Authority
* National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
* Bureau of Ocean Energy Management


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🎙️ Episode Description
In this episode, Travis McLing discusses the growing importance of critical and strategic minerals to the U.S. economy, energy transition, and national security. Drawing on more than three decades of experience at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Travis explains how global supply chains for minerals such as rare earth elements, copper, lithium, and cobalt have become increasingly concentrated, particularly in China. He explores the historical factors that led to U.S. dependence on foreign mineral supplies, the economic and ethical implications of offshoring extraction and processing, and the challenges of rebuilding domestic capacity. The conversation also examines the role of national laboratories in advancing mineral recovery technologies, valorizing mine waste, supporting pilot-scale testing, and developing solutions that balance economic viability with environmental responsibility.
👤 Guest
Travis McLing, Chief Geologist and Directorate Fellow, Idaho National Laboratory
⏱️ Episode Timeline
• Welcome, introductions, and overview of the session (00:00:00–00:01:03)• Travis’s background and career path into mineral extraction and remediation work (00:01:04–00:03:26)• Early signals of global supply chain vulnerability and China’s rare earth embargo of Japan (00:03:27–00:04:34)• Ethical and social implications of global mineral sourcing and consumer responsibility (00:04:35–00:06:38)• Historical decline of U.S. mining capacity and closure of the U.S. Bureau of Mines (00:06:39–00:08:54)• China’s long-term strategy to dominate mineral extraction, processing, and refining (00:08:55–00:11:14)• Current U.S. dependence on foreign sources for critical minerals and defense materials (00:11:15–00:12:56)• Investment gaps, lack of innovation, and challenges facing Western mining companies (00:12:57–00:15:30)• Defining critical versus strategic minerals and how priorities differ across agencies (00:15:31–00:18:44)• Why critical minerals are essential but not necessarily high-value commodities (00:18:45–00:21:06)• Approaches to strengthening supply chains: diversification, substitution, recycling, and friend-shoring (00:21:07–00:23:33)• Limitations of recycling and the need for integrated domestic processing and manufacturing (00:23:34–00:25:44)• Recovering metals from mine tailings and waste streams as near-term opportunities (00:25:45–00:28:54)• Rare earth elements: misconceptions, market challenges, and separation economics (00:28:55–00:32:36)• INL’s role as a national hub for critical minerals research and pilot-scale testing (00:32:37–00:39:31)• Federal investments, lab consortia, and collaboration with academia and industry (00:39:32–00:44:38)• Recommended readings and closing remarks before Q&A (00:44:39–00:47:23)• Audience Q&A on waste stream commercialization, policy barriers, and U.S. smelting capacity (00:47:24–00:52:01)
🔑 Key Takeaways
• The United States is highly dependent on foreign nations—particularly China—for most critical and strategic minerals.• Critical minerals are essential to modern technology and defense systems, even though they often have low market prices.• Ethical, environmental, and economic trade-offs are embedded in global mineral supply chains and must be acknowledged.• Recovering metals from mine tailings and waste streams offers a faster, lower-impact pathway than opening new mines.• Rebuilding domestic mining capacity requires connecting extraction, processing, refining, and manufacturing within the U.S.• National laboratories play a unique role in de-risking technologies, supporting pilot-scale testing, and enabling innovation.• Long-term policy alignment and economic incentives are necessary to secure resilient and responsible mineral supply chains.


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🎙️ Episode Description
In this episode, Jason Gillham, CTO/COO and Co-Founder of Impossible Metals, walks through Version 7 of the company’s Techno Economic Model (TEM), explaining how it simulates autonomous polymetallic nodule collection from seafloor to shore. Jason describes how engineering design choices, site conditions, and market inputs flow through the model to determine cost per wet ton, highlights key updates from Version 6 to Version 7—including selective collection (“top grading”) and updated nodule size distributions—and previews what’s coming in Version 8, such as improved sensitivity analysis and cross-site performance modeling.
⏱️ Episode Timeline
* Introduction by Holly and handoff to Jason (00:00:00–00:00:21)
* Jason sets the agenda: TEM Version 7 updates and preview of Version 8 (00:00:21–00:01:00)
* Concept of operations overview: the Eureka Collection System animation and full cycle (00:01:00–00:03:02)
* What the Techno Economic Model simulates: design and operational decisions translated into cost and throughput to shore (00:03:02–00:03:43)
* Example trade-off: dynamic buoyancy engine optimization and interdependent cost impacts (00:03:43–00:05:06)
* “All models are wrong, but some are useful” — using simulations to guide decisions and confidence (00:05:06–00:05:43)
* How the spreadsheet is organized: tabs, information flow, and decision outputs (00:05:43–00:06:20)
* Parameters explained: site, technology, and market inputs (00:06:20–00:08:13)
* Core model blocks: AUV economic model, maintenance model, fleet economics, and financial summary (00:08:13–00:10:20)
* Optimization routine: buoyancy engine sizing and horizontal speed to minimize cost per ton to shore (00:10:20–00:11:44)
* Key Version 7 change: selective collection and “top grading” sensitivity (00:11:44–00:12:25)
* Version 7 updates: alignment with NORAD pre-feasibility inputs, WACC assumptions, and vehicle design refinements (00:12:25–00:16:44)
* Top grading explained and the data behind nodule size distributions (00:16:44–00:21:59)
* Results: cost impacts of selective collection for Eureka III and Eureka IV, including target operating points (00:21:59–00:25:39)
* Looking ahead: Version 8 cross-site performance, improved sensitivity analysis, and labor refinement (00:25:39–00:27:45)
* Final takeaways and closing remarks (00:27:45–00:29:11)
* Q&A highlights: bulk chemistry considerations for nodule size and grade (00:29:34–00:31:09); processing costs handled in project P&L modeling (00:30:36–00:32:11); collector capacity and modeled cycle times for Eureka III and Eureka IV (00:32:45–00:34:27)
🔑 Key Takeaways
* The techno-economic model is a physics- and cost-based simulation of Impossible Metals’ full concept of operations.
* Version 7 focuses on cost per wet ton to shore, incorporating both CAPEX and OPEX using an 8% weighted average cost of capital.
* Selective collection enables strong economics even when collecting a small fraction of nodules, supporting a precautionary operational approach.
* Updated nodule size distribution data shows that a small percentage of nodules can represent a large share of total mass.
* Top-grading strategies can significantly reduce costs, but are not required to achieve viable economics.
* Version 8 will introduce cross-site modeling, deeper sensitivity analysis, probability-based outcomes, and refined labor assumptions, improving confidence in economic results.


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