Ground Truths

Eric Topol
Ground Truths
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  • Ground Truths

    Aaron Newman: A Breakthrough Blood Test for Cancer

    03.07.2026 | 47 Min.
    The tumor microenvironment (TME), composed of immune cells, fibroblasts, and endothelial cells, has emerged as critical to pathogenesis, prognosis and treatment for cancer (schematic Figure below). There’s no such thing as TMI (too much information) for TME! Yet there’s still no way of assessing it in the clinic by a blood test, and even by invasive biopsy the sampling bias for TME without broader geographic context can lead to important mistakes. That isn’t used for clinical decision making. The TME field is about to change.
    Recently, Professor Aaron Newman at Stanford and colleagues from many US leading centers published a landmark paper in Nature. It may ultimately be considered one of the most important leaps in cancer diagnostics in decades.
    Ground Truths is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

    This was a massive undertaking involving 10 million single-cell RNAseq in 10 types of cancer to define 9 TME types by spatial omics which they called “spatial ecotypes”. It was AI-enabled by machine learning (Spatial Ecotyper from biopsy samples) and extrapolating that to knowledge to deep learning AI (Liquid Ecotyper from blood samples). The whole project took several years.
    Here’s an infographic summary I made with the help of NotebookLM along with the Figures that follow.
    Some of the key points from our conversation:
    —TME is the soil in which the cancer cells live. It strongly influences whether the cancer cells will thrive or not, spread, respond to therapy, and determine the fate pf pre-cancerous lesion (as seen in recent important paper in pancreatic cancer evolution and colon cancer development).
    —Ecotypes, a term coined in 1922, to get at the local environment of tissue and cancer, was repurposed in this new project. Good metaphor: neighborhoods. And emphasis on location , location, location like real estate.
    —In the clinic today, the only window to TME is via a biopsy. But decisions for treatment are not based on TME, they are based on biomarkers like tumor mutation burden (TMB), PD-L1 levels , or volume of tumor DNA by liquid biopsy.

    —TME is dynamic and changes over time so a single snapshot won’t cut it.
    —Spatial 3D maps of TME from 10 million cells, 10 cancer types led to 9 spatial ecotypes (with the Spatial Ecotyper machine learning). Validation across 3D grids (such as Visium) and multiple cohorts. The cell location base within TME is striking.
    —These 9 neighborhoods are conserved and very different. SE4-immune system is asleep, hypoxic; SE 7/8 are “war zones” rich with immune cells, hot tumor; SE 5 exhibits intense immunosuppression, hostile vs immune system, portends poor survival, SE9 deep in core, driving angiogenesis (new blood vessels)
    —Now rich information from these 9 SEs needs to be extrapolated to a holistic blood test of TME. It turns out an extension of tapping into methylation as used by some liquid biopsy cell-free DNA tests works very well, providing cell identity from the DNA fragments leaked into the blood. To get to TME spatial biology in a tube of blood. Akin to wastewater surveillance form municipals for detection of infectious disease pathogen sequence variants and circulating levels. A triumph of AI analytics made this possible!
    —The Liquid Ecotyper was validated in 78 patients with malignant melanoma pre-treatment from Yale University. SE 7/8 benefited from immune checkpoint therapy; SE4 resisted treatment, shorter survival. Matched with tissue biopsy work.
    —Work beyond publication ongoing in many types of lung cancer, bladder cancer, mesothelioma, and response to other therapies like CAR T and bispecific antibodies. This is critical since we have slew of different cancer immunotherapies (see my pyramid Ground Truths review) and we’re not sure who, when, how to use them to drive optimal cancer outcomes in patients. May also help predict other types of therapy (not just immunotherapy) for cancer.
    —The blood test can performed serially which is a major advance compared with how we are currently “flying blind” and misled by imaging.
    —Started a company Liquid Cell Dx to make the TME blood test commercially available. May be available sooner in the academic centers in the current study.
    —The use of SEs may extend beyond cancer!

    A big thanks to Ground Truths subscribers from every US state and 212 countries. Your subscription to these free essays and podcasts makes my work in putting them together worthwhile. If you’re not a subscriber, please join!
    If you found this interesting PLEASE share it!
    Paid subscriptions are voluntary and all proceeds from them go to support Scripps Research. They do allow for posting comments and questions, which I do my best to respond to. Please don’t hesitate to post comments and give me feedback. Let me know topics that you would like to see covered.
    Many thanks to those who have contributed—they have greatly helped fund our summer internship programs for the past two years. It enabled us to accept and support a record number of 51 summer interns coming in 2026! These are high school, college and medical students selected from thousands of applicants. We couldn’t do this expanded program without the funds coming in through Ground Truths.

    Thank you Dr Poonam Desai, Harshi Peiris, Ph.D., YOUR DOCTOR KLOVER, KL, Jessica Coffman, and >400 others for tuning into my live video with Aaron Newman! Join me for my next live video in the app.


    Get full access to Ground Truths at erictopol.substack.com/subscribe
  • Ground Truths

    Elisa Port: Discuss THE BREAST ADVICE Book

    26.06.2026 | 1 Std. 3 Min.
    “I may be the expert in cancer, but you are the expert in you.”—Elisa Port, MD

    Ground Truths is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

    Dr. Elisa Port is Professor of Surgery, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai; Chief of Breast Surgery for the Mount Sinai Health System; Director of the Dubin Breast Center; and Director of the Center of Excellence for Breast Cancer at the Mount Sinai Tisch Cancer Center, a NCI-Designated Comprehensive Cancer Center. She is remarkably well qualified to provide guidance for prevention and treatment of breast cancer, and runs a model program at Mount Sinai in New York (←we’ll get into why I say that).
    She has just published a terrific book that centers around the concept of informed optimism. Many of her patient stories are integrated.
    We tried to cover the waterfront during our conversation including:
    —4 Ws for reduction of risk: weight, walking, wine, and working out (especially in Nature, “green exercise”)
    —Only 10-12% of women will ever develop breast cancer during their lives
    —Role of adipocytes (fat cells), aka estrogen and inflammation factories
    —Misinformation (underlying the need for this book)
    —Pervasive myths of magic supplements, with safety issues of unregulated intravenous drips and others when analyzed turned out to be crushed up, dried house plants
    —Total body MRI: mixed results from her patients
    —Breast cancer on the rise in young women. Dr. Port relates about recent patients diagnosed in their 20s. Some without BRCA or other pathogenic mutation. Why?
    —Mammograms in non-dense breasts pick up 80-90% of breast cancer. It’s the 40-50% women with dense breasts, which the scan is trying to find a polar bear in a snowstorm, is a problem. The problem with false-positives.
    —Use of AI with mammography for increased initial detection, prevention, detect high-risk in women with a “normal” mammogram, and risk of heart disease (see my recent Ground Truths and piece in The Lancet on this important topic)
    —Mount Sinai provides Transpara AI (the one validated by the big Sweden trial of >100,000 women) to all women getting mammograms FOR FREE. That is the best validated AI tool in medicine today!
    —How a mammogram saved a patient’s life, not about breast cancer!
    —Hormone replacement and birth control pills. How to assess benefit and risk in women young and older? Differences in the hormone risks.
    —Tamoxifen for primary prevention in high-risk people. Reduction of breast cancer in 50% or more in these women. In some subgroups reduction as high as 80%!
    —GLP-1 drugs may reduce breast cancer risk and this may not just be related to weight loss
    —Lack of utilization of Genetic testing (it could be your father). I disagreed with respect to use of polygenic risk scores, as I wrote about in SUPER AGERS
    —“I just wanted to scream out on top of the mountain about genetic testing, family history, and early screening.” Tennis legend Chris Evert

    —The lack of our ability to assess the immune system in the clinic and how that could change the face of prevention and very early detection of breast cancer
    An infographic summary I made on Dr. Port’s book with the help of NotebookLM
    ****************************************
    Thank you YOUR DOCTOR KLOVER, Diane Romero, Bob Fleischman, Danielle, MagnaAnimus, and 450+ others for tuning into my live video with Elisa Port! Join me for my next live video in the app.

    A big thanks to all the Ground Truths subscribers from every US state and 212 countries. Your subscription to these free essays and podcasts makes my work in putting them together worthwhile. If you’re not a subscriber, please join!
    If you found this interesting PLEASE share it!
    Paid subscriptions are voluntary and all proceeds from them go to support Scripps Research. They do allow for posting comments and questions, which I do my best to respond to. Please don’t hesitate to post comments and give me feedback. Let me know topics that you would like to see covered.
    Many thanks to those who have contributed—they have greatly helped fund our summer internship programs for the past two years. It enabled us to accept and support a record number of 51 summer interns coming in 2026! These are high school, college and medical students selected from thousands of applicants. We couldn’t do this expanded program without the funds coming in through Ground Truths.



    Get full access to Ground Truths at erictopol.substack.com/subscribe
  • Ground Truths

    Helen Pearson: What Constitutes Real Medical Evidence?

    06.06.2026 | 51 Min.
    Helen Pearson, PhD, is an award-winning biomedical journalist at Nature, named European Science Journalist of the Year in 2025. She teaches science writing at University College London. BEYOND BELIEF is her second, just published book. THE LIFE PROJECT was her first.

    The points we covered include:
    —The evolution of evidence over 8 decades, moving from rationalism, expert opinion, hunches (eminence-based) to empiricism, evidence-based
    —The enormous devastating adverse impact of Dr. Spock’s Baby and Child Care book from a single sentence change, leading to an epidemic of sudden infant death syndrome. And how it ultimately got corrected.
    —The term evidence-based medicine was coined in 1991 at McMaster University
    —Iain Chalmers, Archie Cochrane and the Cochrane Collaboration
    “The scandalous failure of science to cumulate evidence scientifically”—Iain Chalmers
    —Systematic reviews
    —Natural experiments (such as with Shingles)
    —Resistance to change
    “Challenging a doctor’s conventional way of practice is like hitting him in the intellectual testicles”—Drummond Rennie, past JAMA editor
    —Evidence-based practice (and not) in the Covid pandemic
    —Recent examples of challenging dogma (kindly stones, thymus involution)
    —AI and misinformation, false evidence
    Thank you Harshi Peiris, Ph.D., Ageless Mind Project, Anthony Higgins, E West, MagnaAnimus, and many others for tuning into my live video with Helen Pearson! Join me for my next live video in the app.

    A big thanks to Ground Truths subscribers from every US state and 212 countries. Your subscription to these free essays and podcasts makes my work in putting them together worthwhile. If you’re not a subscriber, please join!
    If you found this interesting PLEASE share it!
    Paid subscriptions are voluntary and all proceeds from them go to support Scripps Research. They do allow for posting comments and questions, which I do my best to respond to. Please don’t hesitate to post comments and give me feedback. Let me know topics that you would like to see covered.
    Many thanks to those who have contributed—they have greatly helped fund our summer internship programs for the past two years. It enabled us to accept and support a record number of 51 summer interns coming in 2026! These are high school, college and medical students selected from thousands of applicants. We couldn’t do this expanded program without the funds coming in throughGround Truths.



    Get full access to Ground Truths at erictopol.substack.com/subscribe
  • Ground Truths

    Assessment of the Hantavirus with Prof Donald Milton

    14.05.2026 | 52 Min.
    Get full access to Ground Truths at erictopol.substack.com/subscribe
  • Ground Truths

    Joanna Stern: An AI Immersion for 365 Days

    13.05.2026 | 58 Min.
    Joanna Stern was the Wall Street Journal technology journalist for 12 years. She’s an Emmy award winner for her documentary E-Ternal, and recently started her own company New Things, with added advice from ChatGPT!
    Over the years at WSJ, I relied on Joanna’s reviews of technology for many purchases (and things I avoided) reflecting her keen and brutal assessments. I also had fun working with her on some of her video assessments of health technologies.
    Her book I AM NOT A ROBOT is both hilarious and highly informative. It is a terrific primer for those who are not fully grounded in AI getting into the history of AI and right up to date with generative AI’s progress.
    To get a sense for why AI thought she was the next Tina Fey, check out the back cover! No surprise she got me laughing hard throughout the conversation, no less while reading the book.

    Here is a short YouTube video she posted on her All In AI year of 2025, referred to during the podcast.
    Much of her testing of >100 AI products related to medicine and health care, which is what we especially got into during our conversation. She has 3 major rules in her assessment of AI: (1) Ruthless testing; (2) Benchmark vs human; and (3) Costs, which include “compute cost” that we discussed.
    Here are some of the things we covered:
    * AI of her blood work
    * AI of mammogram and breast ultrasound, and overall experience as a person with increased risk of breast cancer
    * AI at the dentist (and ”Dentist Deep Clean”)
    * Assessment of Dr. GPT
    * Bill Gates on health AI
    * Her AI Trainer (Chris)
    * Waymo vs Uber
    * Her AI Therapist (Ash)
    * Nothing Bot Sex (her 2 digital lovers)
    * Impact on her children (including 6 F*****g Hamsters, the robodog Sirius)

    A big thanks to Ground Truths subscribers from every US state and 212 countries. Your subscription to these free essays and podcasts makes my work in putting them together worthwhile. If you’re not a subscriber, please join!
    If you found this interesting PLEASE share it!
    Paid subscriptions are voluntary and all proceeds from them go to support Scripps Research. They do allow for posting comments and questions, which I do my best to respond to. Please don’t hesitate to post comments and give me feedback. Let me know topics that you would like to see covered.
    Many thanks to those who have contributed—they have greatly helped fund our summer internship programs for the past two years. It enabled us to accept and support a record number of 51 summer interns coming in 2026! These are high school, college and medical students selected from thousands of applicants. We couldn’t do this expanded program without the funds coming in through Ground Truths.

    Thank you Tara Parker-Pope, MPH, Tracy Paeschke, MD, FACC, Chip Hughes, Bob Fleischman, Gretchen Faucett, and >400 others for tuning into my live video with Joanna Stern! Join me for my next live video in the app.



    Get full access to Ground Truths at erictopol.substack.com/subscribe
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